Good morning G&GR! It’s the middle of the week, and there’s much to discuss as we rapidly approach the summit of our sport and bane of our bedtimes, RWC2023 in France!
AUSTRALIA A ANNOUNCED
The marketing pigeon’s younger cousin William Nathanson reports that the Australia A squad to face Portugal in an RWC warmup match has been announced.
Thankfully, both Pistol Pete Samu and underrated scrumhalf Ryan Lonergan feature in a group Eddie has indicated will represent his injury backups for France 2023. Unfortunately, that also includes Bernard Foley as the only currently recognised 10 in the side. I’m also not sure what Harry Wilson has done to be seemingly forced into exile.
Australia A squad
Forwards:
Matt Gibbon, Melbourne Rebels – 5 caps
Harry Johnson-Holmes, NSW Waratahs – 1 cap
Tom Lambert, NSW Waratahs – 0 caps
Sam Talakai, Melbourne Rebels – 1 cap
Rhys van Nek, ACT Brumbies – 0 caps
Folau Fainga’a, Western Force – 38 caps
Lachlan Lonergan, ACT Brumbies – 8 caps
Josh Canham, Melbourne Rebels – 0 caps
Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Melbourne Rebels – 30 caps
Darcy Swain, ACT Brumbies – 17 caps
Ned Hanigan, NSW Waratahs – 28 caps
Pete Samu, ACT Brumbies – 33 caps
Lachlan Swinton, NSW Waratahs – 4 caps
Seru Uru, QLD Reds – 0 caps
Brad Wilkin, Melbourne Rebels – 0 caps
Backs:
Ryan Lonergan, ACT Brumbies – 0 caps
James Tuttle, Melbourne Rebels – 0 caps
Bernard Foley, Japan – 76 caps
Filipo Daugunu*, QLD Reds – 7 caps
Josh Flook, QLD Reds – 0 caps
James O’Connor, QLD Reds – 72 caps
Hunter Paisami, QLD Reds – 24 caps
Lachlan Anderson, Melbourne Rebels – 0 caps
Dylan Pietsch, NSW Waratahs – 0 caps
Corey Toole, ACT Brumbies – 0 caps
Tom Wright, ACT Brumbies – 23 caps
*pending fitness – Joey Walton (NSW Waratahs) is on standby
FARRELL FOUND FINE
Soap Dodgers captain and incumbent owner of New Zealand’s favourite grin Owen Farrell has been cleared of all further sanction following his red carded high shot on Wales’ Taine Basham. Farrell collected Basham’s head with his shoulder after going high into contact, and most pundits seemed to expect a ban of around six weeks given World Rugby’s stated commitment to protecting the head.
However, while admitting foul play, Farrell’s team argued the initial tackle by Jamie George was most to blame for the incident, significantly changing Basham’s direction and throwing out what would otherwise have been an obviously impeccable defensive technique on Farrell’s part. The disciplinary panel agreed, and determined a sin-binning would have been sufficient punishment. Farrell is therefore free to play immediately, and England’s chances at the RWC will not be further threatened.
I am honestly befuddled, nay, flummoxed by this decision. Regardless of intervention by any other player, Farrell put Basham at risk by entering contact high with the shoulder that was always a chance to go wrong. That, combined with his long and storied career of less-than-legal tackling technique, meant he should have been looking at significant time on the bench. How he continues to get away relatively scot-free is a blight on World Rugby, and makes its stance on head contact laughable.
There needs to be an investigation! How/why is he so untouchable?
HUMP DAY HYPOTHESIS
Most of us don’t seem to have gotten over Eddie’s wild squad selection for France 2023 yet. It’s a vastly inexperienced group, Eddie openly preferring youth while shooting the wounded and putting veterans out to pasture (except of course for those particular injured or older players he personally likes).
Three wholly uncapped players, Blake Schoupp, Issak Fines-Leleiwasa and young Max Jorgensen, have been selected, while a further five, Zane Nonggorr, Matt Faessler, Richie Arnold, Tom Hooper and starting 10 Carter Gordon, were only capped in the warm up matches this year. Gone, it seems, is the ‘smash and grab’ approach to bring back Bill this year, setting the Wallabies up for a home tournament in 2027 is now the priority.
But should we really be so pessimistic? I did some digging, interested in finding out how other Wallaby RWC squads incorporated youth and inexperience and whether that bore any relation to their performances. So below I give you a survey of every Wallabies player to debut at a RWC or earlier in a RWC year, and whether they successfully trod the path to eternal glory. Big shout out to https://www.rugbydatabase.co.nz/ and my homeboy Wikipedia for the stats. I make no further claims regarding accuracy.
In 1987 a fancied Australian side prepared to jointly host the world with New Zealand. Anthony Herbert, Stephen James and Brian Smith made their debuts in a warm up game against South Korea earlier in the year, with all three featuring in the RWC. Herbert was selected liberally on the bench throughout the tournament, and Smith featured in run-on sides during the pool matches. Furthermore, Troy Coker made his debut at number 8 against England in the pool stages, going on to start every pool match as well as the semifinal and 3rd place playoff. While Australia finished a disappointing (but still respectable) 4th that year, Coker would go on to appear 27 times for Australia and achieve much higher honours 1991.
Speaking of which, 1991 saw three players make their debuts in warm up matches: Bob Egerton, Marty Roebuck, and a certain young second rower named John Eales. All three would appear prominently in the RWC that year, becoming fixtures in the side that would go all the way, lifting Bill in front of Her Majesty and a defeated English side on (almost) home soil. An honourable mention also goes to David Nucifora, who made his debut in the pool match against Argentina and would win his second (and last cap) in the very next game against Samoa. Eales, of course, would go on to become a legend of the gold jersey and achieve world domination once again as captain of one of the greatest Wallaby sides in history, culminating in the 1999 RWC victory.
1995 was a disappointing year for Australia, going out in the quarters of the cup. Three players made their debuts during the tournament: Michael Foley, Joe Roff and Daniel Manu, and while none featured in the losing quarterfinal, Foley and Roff would go on to magnificent test careers, including ultimate victory in the aforementioned 1999 version.
1999! An incredible five players made their debuts in warm up matches that championship year: Rod Kafer, Nathan Spooner, Tiaan Strauss, Jim Williams and Mark Connors. While Spooner would miss out the others made the RWC squad and featured sporadically, Connors being selected on the bench for the final. Rod Moore and Scott Staniforth also made their debuts during the tournament, both against the USA, with centre Staniforth scoring two tries for his first cap.
Come 2003 and more young blood came through. Lote Tuqiri, Morgan Turinui, Dan Heenan and Al Baxter appeared in warm up matches, with only Heenan not making the RWC squad. Matt Dunning and John Roe made their debuts during tournament pool play against Namibia, with Roe scoring a try. Tuqiri, Baxter and Dunning would all feature in the fateful squad that lost a thrilling final to Jonny Wilkinson’s right foot.
Things came crashing back to earth in 2007, which saw an early exit for Australia at the quarter final stages. Four players made their debuts in warm up matches: Julian Huxley, Sam Norton-Knight, Digby Ioane, and James Horwill, but only Huxley made the tournament squad, featuring twice. One Berrick Barnes also made his debut, during the pool match against Japan, the young flyhalf scoring two tries off the bench and going on to appear at the remaining pool matches and the quarter.
2011 saw some young blood given opportunities pre-tournament, including Rod Davies, Beau Robinson and Sitaleki Timani, but only Nick Phipps made the squad, to feature once against lowly Russia. Australia finished a respectable third that year.
2015 saw another run to the final, but was ultimately lost with a much more experienced squad. Taqele Naiyaravoro appeared in a warm up but did not make the RWC cut, while Toby Smith also made his debut earlier in the year to come off the bench in one pool match and the semifinal against Argentina.
It was a similar story experience-wise in 2019. Harry Johnson-Holmes, Isi Naisarani, Liam Wright and Rob Valetini featured in warm ups, but only Naisarani got on the plane, featuring prominently in tournament matches. Meanwhile Jordan Petaia was the only uncapped player in the squad, making his debut in pool play against Uruguay on the wing, scoring a try, and playing all of Australia’s remaining matches for a disappointing quarterfinal exit.
So, to my untrained and not at all statistical eye, an interesting pattern appears to emerge. While Australia’s form has fluctuated, with decent tournament runs being made in earlier and later years, actual RWC wins seem to correlate strongly with squads possessing a significant number of inexperienced players either in that year AND/OR the previous tournament. Of all the historical squads, Eddie’s 2023 group seems to most closely resemble the 1999 crew: many players only brought into the side that year, a sprinkling of uncapped players, with all a possibility of featuring prominently in the tournament itself. Indeed in more recent years the debutants have dwindled, and while the result in 2015 was good, the ultimate prize has eluded us.
All this, to me, gives reason to hold out some hope. Yes, Eddie’s squad is a good omen for 2027. But on history, don’t rule out a good showing by these young bucks in France this year particularly with a promising draw on our side. What do you think, G&GRS?
