The 2010 international season is over for the Wallabies, and thoughts inevitably turn to matters provincial.
With additional matches to play, and with the top ranked team in each conference guaranteed a place in the finals, a plan for rotation (and a system for prioritising matches) will be very important for the 2011 Super Rugby season.
As strong a squad as the Waratahs’ is, winning every match and playing the best XV every game is unrealistic. Playing players until they break, or when already broken (and then rushing them back into the fray before they are match-ready), would put unnecessary strain on the First XV, and would be particularly devastating in four positions: hooker (Tatafu Polota-Nau), tight-head prop (Al Baxter), No. 8 (Wycliff Palu) and outside centre (Rob Horne). I believe that the importance of these players to the team, the lack of depth in their positions, the rigours of those positions and, in the case of Rob Horne at least, injury records, demand that they are handled with extra prudence. There are many other important players in the squad, but their situations are not as precarious.
Here is the likely best XV (with combinations already built!) and the potential reserves in the four positions mentioned.
Benn Robinson
Tatafu Polota-Nau (Fitzpatrick, though talented, is a big step down)
Al Baxter (Kepu and Tilse have yet to shine in this position as opposed to loose-head, and Ryan is untried)
Dean Mumm
Kane Douglas
Ben Mowen
Phil Waugh
Wycliff Palu (Mowen lacks the power game of Palu, and McCaffrey is injured)
Luke Burgess
Berrick Barnes
Lachie Turner
Tom Carter
Rob Horne (Cross was poor in this position for the Force last season; Karauria-Henry is untried)
Drew Mitchell
Kurtley Beale
I think the best-case scenario for the Waratahs would be to top the Australian conference and have that starting XV fit for the finals. With that in mind, the Waratahs’ draw would appear to allow for both to be achieved.
weeks in bold = the best XV start
weeks in italics = potential for some squad rotation
weeks in red = potential complete rest for the best XV
Some matches have been bracketed as wins. Although an away win against the Brumbies will be a big ask, they are all matches the Waratahs could reasonably expect to win (especially with a fully fit best XV palying). The matches not marked as wins would be a challenge even with the best XV playing, so on balance look like good opportunities to let the extended squad have a crack.
1. Rebels v. Waratahs (win)
2. Waratahs v. Reds (win)
3. Crusaders v. Waratahs
4. BYE
5. Waratahs v. Cheetahs (win)
6. Brumbies v. Waratahs (win)
7. Waratahs v. Chiefs (win)
8. Force v. Waratahs (win)
9. Blues v. Waratahs
10. Reds v. Waratahs (win)
11. Waratahs v. Rebels (win)
12. Waratahs v. Force (win)
13. BYE
14. Waratahs v. Lions (win)
15. Sharks v. Waratahs
16. Bulls v. Waratahs
17. Waratahs v. Highlanders (win)
18. Waratahs v. Brumbies (win)
(Those wins, with some bonus points, would pretty much guarantee top position in the conference.)
Apart from giving the best XV every chance of being fit for the finals, a thorough rotation policy would make full use of the extended squad (they are being paid, so why not use them?), and would give the reserves much needed experience and exposure (with the benefits being potential competition for the First XV, and better preparedness in case of injury to the top players).
Even in matches where the best XV is scheduled to start, once the game is won the spirit of rotation should mean Chris Hickey rings the changes. On the other hand, in games where there is some rotation, but still the expectation of victory, I would prefer that Palu and Polota-Nau are not both rested together.
As the season progresses, opportunities (and even the necessity) for rotation may well present themselves in unexpected ways. Whatever the case, matches against other teams in the Australian conference should always be a priority. The emphasis on home matches against the foreigners is simply a quirk of the draw that means the home matches are against the apparently weaker teams, and the matches overseas are against the stronger ones.
A bonus of a well thought-out Waratahs rotation policy — and a successful Waratahs — is that the Wallabies will also benefit.
