4. Why write off the Highlanders, Crusaders and Bulls for the big one? And what to make of the rest?
The Bulls are winning games and are on top of their conference by two points. But they are not playing well as was seen last weekend against the Sharks and they have yet to go on their tour where they will, on history, lose at least three. They might still make the six but if they do then they’ll have to travel for the finals. I think they’ll be a couple of points short.
The Crusaders backline is firing like a Trabant. Their only strategy is to “pass it to Naidolo and let him run.” This will not cut it this year despite going so close last year. Read apart, their big guns aren’t firing and Carter at 12 is just not working. On 20 points with only seven games to play, they need six bonus point wins to be a chance. Its a bridge too far, though they just might sneak sixth place if the Brumbies or Highlanders implode.
The Highlanders are the best chance to prove me wrong and they could easily sneak into the six and become everyone’s second favourite finals team. But to get home finals they will need to get in front of the Hurricanes and Chiefs, and while they will give it a red-hot go, I think they’ll just fall short; though a finals spot is quite likely.
The rest break up into two groups really. Those who have done better than expected and those who have done worse. In the former category you would put the Rebels and the Lions. Both teams have been playing much better rugby than expected and both could still break out and do a “Force” this year.
The Lions are just a bunch of real triers who will work till they drop. Only Whiteley might make the Springbok WC squad, yet they are deservedly third on the SA ladder. The Rebels are developing some real talent, with Naivalu, Debreczeni and Timani all having breakout seasons. If they can keep their team together for two more years they could be anything.
In the other category goes the Reds and Force, the Sharks and Cheetahs and the Blues. The Sharks appear to have discipline and internal issues, the Cheetahs lost their stars and don’t have the cattle and the other three teams have coaching problems.
Lopeti Timani, one of the Rebels rising stars.
