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Home»Super Rugby»ACT Brumbies»The run home for Aussie S14 contenders
ACT Brumbies

The run home for Aussie S14 contenders

Scott BryantBy Scott BryantApril 5, 200910 Comments
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"aaah, we estimate our chances to be somewhere between fuck-all and none"
"we estimate our chances to be somewhere between fuck-all and none"

With the teams now rounding the bend and about to enter the home straight of this year’s Super 14, I thought it timely to have a look at the run home of the three Australian finals contenders.

It is interesting the three teams at the head of the table are yet to have their bye, one of these teams being the Tahs so this makes their third place look a little tenuous, albeit the two teams immediate behind them, the Bulls and the ‘Saders, have a tough couple of weeks as well.

It looks as if somewhere between 40-42 points will be the magic mark to make the final four – so which Aussie teams has the best chance to make it?

Tahs

Round

Opponent

Venue

Potential Result

Points

9

Bulls

Sydney

Win

4

10

Force

Sydney

Win

4

11

Bye

–

–

–

12

Cheetahs

Bloem

Win + 4 try bonus pt

5

13

Sharks

Durbs

Loss + <7 bonus pt

1

14

Lions

Joburg

Win

4

 

 

 

TOTAL

18

 

The Tahs have probably the best draw of the Australian teams in the run home with the only real concern they have being that of facing the leaders, the Sharks, at Durbs in Round 13.

It is hard to see the Tahs stumbling against the Bulls however the Force may be a potential banana-skin for them, neither the Lions nor the Cheetahs should pose any problems for the brutal game of the Tahs.

I predict they’ll get 18 points from their remaining games which when added to the 27 they’ve got already, definitely gets them in the finals but maybe only in third spot. Bonus points will be crucial to the Tahs getting a home semi and given they’ve only 3 so far this season, it might well be their undoing.

 

Brumbies

Round

Opponent

Venue

Potential Result

Points

9

Stormers

Canberra

Loss + <7 bonus pt

1

10

Bulls

Canberra

Win + 4 try bonus pt

5

11

‘Canes

Cake Tun

Loss + <7 bonus pt

1

12

Reds

Brisbane

Win

4

13

Blues

Canberra

Win

4

14

Chiefs

Waikato

Loss

–

 

 

 

TOTAL

15

The Brumbies face some pretty tough teams in the coming weeks, particularly after a physically and emotionally draining tour of Sth Africa. This weekend they face the Stormers who would have no doubt targeted this game as one they could get away with given the Brumbies will be travel weary.

It looks a hard road for the Ponies from here with the only respite being the Reds in round 12, but even that game might be problematic as it is the last chance for the Reds to salvage something (anything!) from their season.

I’ve been kind and given the Blues game to the Brumbies but, once again, it could be amore than even contest as the Blues are no mugs despite their poor results thus far.

With a predicted 15 points to go with their total of 18 points already, it doesn’t look as though the Brumbies will have enough points to make it.

 

Force

Round

Opponent

Venue

Potential Result

Points

9

‘Canes

Subi

Win

4

10

Tahs

Sydney

Loss + <7 bouns pt

1

11

Lions

Subi

Win + 4 try bouns pt

5

12

Bulls

Loftus

Loss

–

13

Stormers

Cape Town

Loss

–

14

Highlanders

Subi

Win

4

 

 

 

TOTAL

14

The Force have not been able to string any kind of form together, so it is with some trepidation that I predicted they will beat the ‘Canes this weekend. However, should the Force play anything near the way they did against the Reds, it is hard to see them getting beaten by any of their remaining opponents, but the trouble is, will they be able to reproduce that performance again?

A tough tour of Sth Africa looks to be where the Force will come unstuck but they are a team that travels well so maybe they might just jag one of those games. It’s hard to see it happening, but, depending on which Force team shows up, they might do OK.

With only 14 predicted points to add to their current tally of 17, the Force looks well and truly short of getting anywhere near the finals. Realistically, for the Force to make the finals they would need to win all of their remaining games, and have a smattering of bonus points, which isn’t gonna happen.

 

Get on the Tahs

So there it is, the only Australian team with a better than even chance of making the finals buy my reckoning is the Tahs. The only doubt is whether they can show some attacking ability and snag a few bonus points to make the possibility of a home semi-final a reality.

Let’s all get on the Tahs bandwagon as it continues its relentless journey toward the finals, I’m on it from now on…if I can stay awake during their matches that is!

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<span class="dsq-postid" data-dsqidentifier="2245 https://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/?p=2245">10 Comments

  1. Gagger on April 5, 2009 12:03 pm

    Good job JC. Fark it is a bleak picture isn’t it?

    Report
  2. James on April 6, 2009 1:00 am

    brumbies will beat the stormers and i think your being a bit kind to the tahs.

    Report
  3. Lance Free on April 6, 2009 4:11 am

    I guess it’s not something you’d want to discuss at length at this time, but the unknown factor is how the now tragic death of Shawn MacKay will affect the Brumbies. This really is dreadful news for his family and the wider rugby community. You’d suspect it will have a devastating personal impact on the team and in these terrible circumstances how a coach will be able to motivate his players is beyond me……

    Report
    • Ed on April 6, 2009 5:43 am

      Maybe they will rally in his name?

      Report
    • Joey Johns on April 6, 2009 9:19 am

      Well Hugh McMeniman played 2 hours after his fathers death, but he’s an extraordinary human being. Hopefully the brumbies will be able to find motivation like this?

      Report
      • Patrick on April 6, 2009 1:08 pm

        Your father’s death is a bit different I think – more personal and maybe sth you prepare for better. But hopefully yea they can rally in his name – be a fitting memorial if nothing else.

        Report
    • El Dommo on April 9, 2009 2:42 am

      It is tragic, and the Brumbies would honour him by playing the rest of the season for him, which is what they will do, they have the culture.

      What i found interesting, was that after watching Macca for some years in 7’s rugby, this was his first season at the Brummers. Sure he was a Junior Tah…but nto so much exposure at Provincial level after a solid career at Int 7’s level…interesting.

      The reason why i state that is, well Drew 7’s, Higgers 7’s, Connor 7’s (im sur eof it, correct me though), and within a few years, they were all brought in relatively quickly, macca has been playing 7s for what, 5 years or so…

      anyway, terible news, some players here in brisbane are feeling it i know…lets hope they do Honour him with some stellar top drawer perfomrances.

      Report
  4. Noddy on April 6, 2009 5:10 am

    Reds

    potential Result

    Loss
    Loss
    Loss
    Loss
    Loss

    Losers

    Report
    • ash on April 6, 2009 11:47 pm

      Think you’re being a bit harsh there, Noddy. They are playing the Lions at home; the Reds might only suffer a close loss in that game.

      Report
  5. James on April 6, 2009 10:01 am

    i won’t be posting for a few days

    Report
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