This final is going to be a close one. In all likelihood it will be a grinding encounter, where both sides will look the winner at some point. In the end it will come down to five key areas, in my opinion. These are the battlegrounds on which the game will be won and lost. Some are obvious, others less so:
The showdown: QC v. DC
Back in Round 15 this was a pretty even tussle in my view, and unsurprisingly the end game result was also very tight. Carter was brilliantly consistent, and guided the Crusaders around the field with a very steady hand. However his kicking boot was not always on target and he botched a key opportunity at the death by taking an ill-advised attempt at field goal. Cooper had flashes of brilliance, beating multiple tacklers time and time again. His kicking boot was also off though, putting five kicks out on the full. Both Carter and Cooper need to be firing if their side has any chance of victory. Goal-kicking will be key, and the first kick by each will be crucial as both are confidence kickers — if it goes over the black dot it could be a long night for the opposition. Carter is a proven star; however, there are still a few lingering doubts about Cooper’s ability to perform on the big stage. He can put them well and truly to bed with a good game on Saturday.
The scrum
The Crusaders are hands down the best provincial scrum in the world, so for the Reds it’s all about damage control. This is nothing new, as they have been on the losing end at the set piece for most of the season. Last week against the Blues was a prime example: despite having their heads shoved up their proverbial at every scrum, they still managed to win (reasonably) clean ball off their own feed. But as we have seen with the Wallabies in the past, if the wheels start to come off at the scrum it is very hard to win the game. Bryce Lawrence will be pivotal here, and the Reds will be desperately trying to keep the scrum stable and elevated. But with the might of Franks, Franks, Crockett and Flynn it could be very hard to do. Radike Samo will have a critical role to play: picking the ball up from a backpedalling scrum is one of the hardest things to do on a rugby field, and he will have to be right on his game to get the Reds going forward after going backwards at the set piece.
Number 8: Reid v. Samo
While the backrow battle more broadly will be pivotal, these two players specifically will have a huge importance to each side. Both are big-match players, and are renowned for stepping up when it is most needed. Reid has been fairly quiet by his lofty standards in the second half of the competition, but in the last few weeks has kicked his game up three or four gears. He was at his brutal best against the Stormers, pulverising the poor Saffers at every phase. Samo is similar. The best game he played this season was against the Crusaders, where he thoroughly outpointed Reid and made a number of key plays. He went off early against the Blues, but a similar performance here will not only give the Reds a great chance of lifting the trophy, but Radike himself a great chance of pulling on a gold jumper later this year.
The kick return
The Crusaders score more tries from counter-attack than any other side. Their back three is electric yet inexperienced, and how they perform will be critical to the Crusaders’ chances. The same can be said for the Reds’ back trio. Although electric they lack big-game experience like most of their counterparts. Their confidence should be sky-high after a great showing against the Blues, but this will be another step up. Given both sides’ precision kicking games each back three will be under enormous pressure at some point, and a mistake could be game-breaking. The Reds will be desperate to contain Guildford, and the Crusaders Ioane. But too much focus on those danger players can create an opening for their less prominent partners, be that Sean Maitland or Rod Davies.
Inside Centre
SBW vs Tapuai. On paper you would give this to Sonny Bill every day of the week. He has been one of the standout players in this year’s competition, and steamrolled the star-studded Stormers midfield last week. Yet last time against the Reds he had a quiet game. In fact he had a bit of a shocker, spilling the ball with his first touch and never really recovering. Unsurprisingly the Crusaders backline never hit its stride, as he is their go-to man for breaking the line in midfield. If he doesn’t do it himself he can drag in a few tacklers then pop an offload to someone in a hole. Ben Tapuai has been one of the unsung heroes of the Reds, but has very little in common with SBW. His mission on Saturday will be one of containment. If he can come up off the line quickly and pressure SBW into some early mistakes then the game will tip in the Reds favour, just as it did in Round 15. If SBW gets a roll on then it could be a very long night at the office for Benny Taps, and for the Reds as a unit.
These are the key areas I will be watching on Saturday. I think the Crusaders may have too much class for the Reds, but I said that back in Round 15 as well.
What do you think are the critical areas to watch on Saturday?
