Is it too early to call a side’s hopes for the season ‘on the line’ in round one? Probably, but this game will tell a fair bit about how the rest of the season will pan out for both of them.
Each team has had major overhauls during the off-season and would approach this game with a fair degree of nervousness considering the burden of expectation that both will carry this year.
Key to the ‘Tahs chances in this game will be the ability to get the ball quickly to the outside backs and let them work the under-strength ‘Canes over. Wellington have named Hosea Gear and Piri Weepu out of position at no’s 12 and 10 respectively, this to me speaks volumes about a potential lack of cohesion in the back-line.
Although one is at no 12 and the other at 13, Timana Tahu v Ma’a Nonu will be a key battle. I expect the ‘Tahs to give Timtam plenty of space in which to try and expose Nonu’s lack of lateral movement in defence and general lack of combination with Gear. On the flip-side, Timtam is no rocket scientist in defence either – despite during the off-season passing the only exam he has ever sat, that of rugby theory – I would think the ‘Canes have roughly the same plan for him. They will send plenty of decoy runners at Timtam, who when faced with defensive choices in recent times, has generally made the wrong one.
Kurtley Beale will need a strong performance to get his confidence back after spending the summer kicking stones and eating KFC. The world lay at Beale’s feet at the end of last Super 14 season, until he broke one of them that is, and he now finds himself the third choice no. 10 behind Gits and Cooper at the national level. If Beale can get things on track early then Timtam, Rob Horne, Lote, Lachie Turner et al should be too much for the ‘Canes to handle.
The forward battle will be a fairly even one, but if the ‘Tahs front row suffers an injury or two the reserves are rookies, as Freir looks set to be ruled out, and this could be problematic. Even with the loss of Vickerman, Lyons and Elsom, the ‘Tahs piggies look surprising good and should shade the ‘Canes who were victims of a similar flight of quality at last season’s end.
Wellington are on the second line of betting to win the Super 14, I can’t see why as I don’t think they look like a settled or cohesive unit. I expect it to be tight early however the ‘Canes over reliance on Nonu and Rodney So’oialo, plus injuries to a few prized players, should mean the ‘Tahs will be able to see off the threat and sneak away with the game in the last 20 minutes.
Cote says ‘Tahs by 6.
Hurricanes v Waratahs
Venue:Westpac Stadium, Wellington
Kick off: Saturday 14 February, 7.35pm (local), 5.35pm AEST
Referee: Stuart Dickinson
Hurricanes
Zac Guildford, Andre Taylor, Jason Kawau, Tamati Ellison, David Smith, Willie Ripia, Alby Mathewson, Victor Vito, Scott Waldrom, Karl Lowe, Bryn Evans, Api Naikatini, Tim Fairbrother, Dane Coles, John Schwalger. Replacements: Ged Robinson, Neemia Tialata, Jason Eaton, Ma’a Nonu, Piri Weepu, Daniel Kirkpatrick, Cory Jane, Nick Crosswell, Hosea Gear, Faifili Levave, Jacob Ellison.
Waratahs
Sam Norton-Knight, Lachie Turner, Rob Horne, Timana Tahu, Lote Tuqiri, Kurtley Beale, Luke Burgess, Scott Fava, Phil Waugh, Ben Mowen, Will Caldwell, Dean Mumm, AL Baxter, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson. Replacements: Adam Freier/Damien Fitzpatrick, Jeremy Tilse/Dan Palmer, Chris Thomson, Wycliff Palu, Brett Sheehan, Tom Carter, Daniel Halangahu.
<span class="dsq-postid" data-dsqidentifier="1105 https://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/?p=1105">11 Comments
I don’t expect this one to be entertaining in the slightest, both teams will just be sussing things out and trading penalties early (Watch for Greg Growden to recycle his annual ((or is it anal)) “Not so super” article), with the tahs pulling away from the 50 minute mark. Canes to make a run in the last 10 but won’t get there as the tahs defense will be too tough.
Sagerian’s last blog post..Ireland start 6 Nations on a massive high.
notice that Hore the hooker is out with an injury too. i don’t know much about the ‘canes replacements, but this must give the tahs pack a boost. i think this is a more accurate ‘canes line up than that shown. scroll down until you find it.
Friggin Hore, I had him in my fantasy team. This is my double-pointer match for the tips, only team under the odds (tahs) that I felt sure of
Piri Weepu is a late scratching as well, things just keep getting better for the Tahs
I guess the NZ teams have a bit of an advantage over us…..and that’s depth. They are able to recruit from the second tier Air NZ Cup, which we don’t have an equivalent of. For example, Karl Lowe, Zac Guildford and Bryn Evans were signed from 2008 semi-finalist Hawkes Bay (where Ben Batger was playing). A number of other players including Willie Ripia (Taranaki), Api Naikatini (Counties Manukau), Jason Kawau (Southland) and Andre Taylor (Manawatu) were running around in the same competition last year. Sure the loss of Masoe, Collins, Thomas Waldron etc will obviously have an impact, but that’s balanced by the Tahs international departures and their injury roster. Mowen, Fitzpatrick, Tilse, Thomson, Palmer etc are essentially club players and don’t provide the same degree of depth as a seasoned Air NZ Cup rep. I think the Canes at the Cake Tin are going to provide very stern opposition and I’d be a little bit surprised if they lost. Canes by 9….
Half-time 19-5 tahs.
Canes look awful, Nonu all of a sudden thinks he has perfumed hands and can throw a pass – he can’t. No thrust from the Canes centres as Nonu has decided to become a ball player rather than an up the jumper runner, difficult to see where their points will come from. Canes try came from a Tahs balls-up.
3 well worked tries from the Tahs – dominating the breakdown and disrupting everything the Canes are trying to do. The whole team is looking farily comfortable. Portley has been a bit hot and cold but did fire a lovely pass to Horne for Two-Dads try early on.
Tahs scrum looks pretty good and line-out is working well.
They need to get the ball to Lote more as he is in my Fantasy XV!!!
did anyone think the beale pass looked forward?
Final score 26-22 Tahs
Tahs looked to have the game well in hand until the last 10 mins when mistakes gave the Canes a sniff.
All three Aussie teams thus far have jumped out to leads and let them slip – a worrying sign.
Tahs lost a bit of direction in the second half as Portley, who generally had a fine game, seemed to fade in and out of play.
Wellington have a fair bit of work to do, Nonu dragged after 60 mins and So’oialo lashed out with the slipper in frustration on Capt Claret’s head late in the game – he will be in the shit for this and could miss a couple of weeks.
If you backed the Canes to win the tournament you may well be already thinking abour next year – they are no chance.
The bookies will be desperately winding in the Tahs odds as they displayed a game that is more capable of scoring points rather than Link’s saftey first mantra of last year.
Big up to Ben Mowen – El Dommo, you were right
This game was a little bit like the England v Australia matches over the past few years where England dominate the territory but fail to score the necessary tries…..and Australia score a couple of pearlers with minimal possession. I think the Tahs deserved to win but went to sleep in the middle to late stages of the match, where they could have been overcome if they’d taken their eyes off the ball. The defence was exceptional and some excellent options were taken in attack. The Tahs scrum dominated the set piece with the tight five all contributing to the win. I’m getting pissed off with the mindless kicking (by all sides) in the games I’ve watched under the ELV sanctions and a little concerned about the ‘touch football’ nature of it. Not quite as good as the Brumbies/Highlanders game but a pretty solid start for the Tahs. Rob Horne is undoubtedly a star of the future. Although the kiwi commentators (isn’t Mexted a fuckwit) offered the usual criticism of the referee I thought Dickinson didn’t do too badly with his 50/50 calls.
Quite a lucid piece Lance, agreed about the kicking aspect of the game.
Disagree with comment about Mex, in my opinion his is a drone who is feed his lines by Nisbo, who is a knob-end of the highest order. Hard for Mex to be entirely objective as he is a Wellington old boy.
Greetings from Egypt my friends!
Get this – S14 coverage is better here than Pomlandia. You get all games live, even though I’m sitting on the Sinai desert with my feet in the Red Sea. May have to emigrate again.
Thought Tahs showed a strong game as well. To me it looked remarkably similar to what they took into the finals last year, where they’re happy to boot it to the oppo and trust their defence to create opportunities.
That the canes were gonna play this brainless footy never seemed in doubt to me, I don’t know where their hype has come from. Remind me who the brains trust there is…..?
Unfortunately being in Eqypt doesn’t shield you from fuckwit kiwi commentators. Is it my imagination or were they rubbishing the Tahs’ “supposedly” Wallaby front row in the first half, to see them bulldoze the Canes and mangle Tealata in the second?