I think the Waratahs have both the experience and depth to again be Super Rugby finalists in 2011 and will top the Australian Conference.
It’ll be a shootout between the Tahs and the Reds, and I doubt whether any of the other three sides will come within spitting distance.
That’s the feeling in my bones as the evidence suggests the Waratahs will again be a well-balanced side, right at the peak of their powers.
They’ve got experienced blokes where you need them, especially in the forwards i.e. Robinson, TPN, Fuse, Kepu, Waugh, Cliffy etc.
There’s also a group of young, enthusiastic up-and-comers who are developing nicely like Douglas, Mowen and McCutcheon.
On top of that there’s a test class backline ready to unleash if they’re given the opportunity.
The centres have been reinforced with Ryan Cross, although Lachie Turner looks an adequate replacement if Horne falls over.
The strikepower out wide in Beale, Mitchell and Lakkie is second to none with Barnes controlling distribution.
That’s not even taking Dan Vickerman into account, although I wouldn’t be placing too much emphasis on that at this early stage.
None of us were necessarily satisfied with the style of footy the Tahs played last year but ‘winners are grinners’, and win they did. Substance over style, perhaps?
And I think they’ll do it again in 2011 despite having the toughest draw of all the Australian sides.
Their four overseas matches are against the Crusaders, Blues, Sharks and Bulls. Sure, they’ve avoided the Hurricanes and Stormers but I think they’re still holding a raw prawn.
The Blues this year will be a different proposition as well.
The reality is that it wouldn’t matter as long they win their Australian Conference matches. That’s the name of the game that guarantees you a final’s spot.
However, if you’re prepared to discount those four overseas matches you’d be putting all your eggs in one basket. It’s unlikely that anyone would deliberately forfeit overseas wins.
Of course, you also get a bite of the cherry if you end up 4th, 5th or 6th on the Super Rugby ladder overall.
O.K. right from the start I’m discounting the Force and the Rebels. Let’s face it, neither of these teams will be finalists.
The Force will trouble a lot of sides if they can remain injury-free, especially at home.
This season will determine whether they’re heading in the right direction, and I think they will be.
But they just don’t have the overall depth to challenge at that level although they’ve been recruiting smarter.
You might think that the Rebels could be the ‘smokey’ in this competition but I seriously doubt it. New teams take years to bed down.
I think they’ll come out firing but apart from some obvious talent (Weeks, Delve, Cipriani, Huxley etc) they have a journeyman feel about them and a fair bit of beef past their prime.
They’ve recruited some good young guys and in future years they’ll reap that benefit.
I just can’t see it happening in Year One although it would be a good news story à la Exeter (Aviva Premiership) if it came to pass.
Juan Cote was telling me the other day he thought the Rebels would defeat the Tahs in their first match. All I can say Senor Cote is what have you been smoking – is it Spanish Fly? I want some of it….
Sadly, the Brumbies are only a shadow of their former selves. They’ve got plenty of ‘name’ players but that hasn’t necessarily transposed into a winning side.
There was a brittleness to their forward pack last year that I don’t think has necessarily been fixed, despite the arrival of Dan Palmer and Julian Salvi.
They’ve got early injury concerns as well which will cause disruption, especially to Stephen Hoiles, Jerry Yanuyanutawa and longer term to Rocky. Hopefully Peter Kimlin will be fit to add a bit of starch.
Great to see Squeaky and AAC re-sign with the ARU, although the latter may not stay in the capital.
Is Brumbieland a happy place to be these days? I don’t know but there is a perception floating around that it might not be.
That leaves the Queensland Reds. Now, they really will be challenging for the top spot with an arsenal of newly minted internationals.
We’ve already had some discussion about their manpower and tactics here and here.
I think they’ll be the only real challenge to the Waratahs supremacy. Man-for-man they are a better team than last year with that extra dollop of experience and nous.
But they are missing Daniel Braid, Sean Hardman, Laurie Weeks and a few others.
Braid and Hardman haven’t been adequately replaced and the Reds might just fall short of expectations as ‘second season syndrome’ factors in.
That said, they’ve got some sensational players who are clearly on the rise. Its going to be a fascinating and exciting ride. Bring it on.
