I like the underdog and I often find myself cheering for the Rebels and the Force (unless they’re playing the Reds). In the battle of the two perennial underdogs on the weekend, I really wanted to cheer for the Force but having tipped the red hot Rebels I was conflicted. As the opening minutes ticked by though, my potentially perfect round slipped from my grasp. I was sunk. So for everyone else that tipped the Rebels, we must look forward. Round 5 awaits…..
Round 4.
Last weekend wasn’t easy on my ticker and I’m tipping I wasn’t alone. The Reds tried their best to throw away what should have been a comfortable win on Friday night (I’m looking at you Frisby!). My Joker was only secured in the dying seconds when the Crusaders finally found a way to score some points against the Stormers and my incorrect tip was apparent early in the first half of the Force game but I had to sit through the rest of the game to confirm.
Congratulations must go to Brokendown but. A tipper that I unashamedly ‘lampooned’ a couple of weeks ago for a less than great round. In the weekend just gone Brokendown nailed that sweet sweet perfect round and is now back on track. As one of my Rugby coaches used to say, just beware though, one week you’re a rooster and the next you’re a feather duster.
Also congratulations to Denis O and A for maintaining their spot on top of the GaGR League. For those of us that are already starting to lose touch with these gun tippers, all is not lost. The ARU have got prizes for the top tipper for different periods of the comp. The current period goes up until and includes Round 6 then we start a new period which means we’re all back in with a shot at a prize. Hone your technique in the next two rounds and make sure you keep coming back for my weekly tipping gold.
The Frequent Flyer Round.
This round sees only one of the seven games being played within a single conference with all of the remaining games having one side dealing with some significant travel distances. A couple of teams are also nearing the end of some lengthy ‘tours’ and may already have one eye on the plane home. A savvy tipper will keep this in mind.
The tricky games this round aren’t hard to spot – there are two that I am losing sleep over. They are the one and only ‘local derby’, the Brumbies vs the Waratahs and the Lions vs the Blues. Lets look at how they match up on paper.
The Brumbies vs Waratahs fixture is as tight as they come. Head to head, they are 3 wins a piece from the last 6 starts but the wins have tended to go the way of the home side more often than not. Both teams grabbed one win each away from home in those games but so it’s hardly a lay down misere for the home team. The Brumbies possibly edge the Waratahs in terms of preparation, having played in some tough games while the Waratahs are coming off the bye. It could well be argued that this is to the Tahs advantage though. Still not sure who to go for? Maybe just go with the bookies on this one – that is until you find out that even the bookies can’t split them. To close to call for me, who do you think will get the result in Canberra?
When you look at the Lions vs the Blues on paper it’s really hard to work out why the tipping is 51-49% in favour of the Lions. The Blues have most certainly had the wood over the Lions in recent times. I had to go back to 2006 to find a Lions victory and even then it was only by 1 point. The points difference in their match ups since then is a staggering 169 points to the Blues (avg. 28.2 points/game). Rugby isn’t a game played on paper though and in the case of this game, it’s being played on a patch of dirt in Johannesburg. The Lions of 2014 are a different beast to the harmless kittens they once were. The Blues are on the improve also so this game will be fascinating. The punters like the Lions, only just, but the bookies like the Blues. I can’t decide – help me out here.
The Joker
The tricky games are sorted and thankfully we have a few options for the Joker this week. The Crusaders are well backed to beat the Rebels but I am struggling to tip the Crusaders with any degree of confidence at the moment and this makes me feel uneasy. The Rebels have beaten the Cantabrians in Melbourne before and they’ll fancy themselves to do it again.
The Hurricanes should be able to deal with the travel weary Cheetahs but these are two teams that can be a touch hot and cold. The Highlanders are heavily backed to beat the Force in Dunedin but if the men from Otago watched the first half of last weeks game they may not share the same confidence. The Reds are also not a popular choice with the tippers to beat the Sharks at home, but call it Maroon tinted glasses or blind idiotic loyalty but I think this is a game the Reds can win.
This really leaves us with only one choice. Get the Joker all squared away on the first game of the round when the Chiefs host the Stormers. The Stormers were just ok against a very average looking Crusaders outfit last week and when the game was on the line they folded. Their opponents on the other hand are… well, the Chiefs. If you need more reason than that to get on them you’re kidding yourselves!
