Round 3 was a super rugby tipping week from hell for some of us but armed with a growing knowledge of who’s hot and who’s not, thankfully Round 4 looks like it may offer some respite. The secret to doing well in a tipping comp is to not relax on these ‘easy’ weeks but dig deep, pick the inevitable upset and increase your lead on the pack. Beware though, any slip up here could see you tumbling down the rankings.
The Week That Was.
Last week’s leader ‘RNGD Barking Ghecko‘ had a week they’d probably rather forget only correctly tipping 2 fixtures. Luckily for them, they obviously read my weekly pearls of wisdom and played their Joker on the Brumbies, salvaging an extra point. You’re welcome.
Last week also saw our first tippers achieve a perfect round! Congratulations to ‘Flip‘ and ‘A‘ for grabbing maximum points and also the lead in the GaGR League. Both Flip and A now sit second in the overall standings. Honourable mentions need to also go to ‘Running Rugby‘, ‘Lindommer‘ and ‘Denis O‘, who are all sitting one point shy of the lead on 14 points.
The ‘Not so Tough’ Games?
All it will take is a quick look at where the early tips are going to realise that Round 4, should be about as tough as my beloved QLD Reds were on the weekend. But anyone that thinks they were made to look so flaccid by one M.Chieka only taking a ‘quick look’ at them a week before is deluded. Thankfully for you, I’ve done the hard work so you can sit back and enjoy the riches of success! Poker faces people.
Going by the stats, the closest game this week is expected to by the Bulls versus the Blues in Pretoria. Only 30% of you reckon that the Blues can carry their form all the way to South Africa. The two teams have only met 3 times since 2011 with the Blues winning twice and the Bulls winning once. The two teams also have two of the more formidable home grounds in Eden Park And Loftus but on the three occasions they have met recently, the visiting side has won twice.
Both teams also grabbed their first wins of the season on the weekend but for me, the way the Blues dismantled the ever-dangerous Crusaders in Auckland was enough to show that this is a team on the up. If you missed the game, I recommend watching a replay and then changing your tips to the Blues.
The other fixture in Round 4 that might have a few of your undecided sees the Brumbies travel to Wellington to take on the Hurricanes. The Brumbies are heavily backed by the punters and with good reason. The Hurricanes record against them, home or away, is not great with their last win against the boys from Canberra coming in 2010. What should have you worried though, is that the ‘Canes started their season with a tour of South Africa, while the Brumbies have yet to travel outside of Australia so their relative form should be judged with this in mind. Worthy of consideration also are the injury concerns facing the Brumbies with Pocock already ruled out and clouds over a number of their backs. If you were after an upset tip this round, a punt on the Hurricanes could be worth a shot.
The Joker
There are three stand out games that you could play your Joker on in Round 4. The Reds vs the Cheetahs, the Crusaders vs the Stormers and the Sharks vs the Lions.
The most favoured tip this week is for the Sharks followed closely by the Reds. Historically speaking, in both of these match ups the results have generally tended to go with the home side. When it comes to my Joker though, it needs to be a sure thing. The Lions have proven already this year that they are going to be a handful and the Reds will be hard to back this weekend with any degree of confidence after their performance last weekend. Which leaves us with little choice for the lock.
When searching for a sure thing, it’s hard to go past the Cantabrians. The Crusaders have started slowly as they always have, they are missing their stars Carter and McCaw and were well beaten by the Blues last week as well but the telling factor for me is that the Stormers simply cannot beat the Crusaders. In the past 10 years the Stormers have beaten the Crusaders twice. This record may be worse but I stopped at looking after a decade of dominance. That will do me. What do you reckon?
