It’s the penultimate round of the regular season, it’s the last week of the middle tipping period and while the leader of both the tipping and the Super Rugby table looks settled in, anything could happen between here and the end.
Top Tipper
Our long time leader, The Rhumdoggs, slipped a little on the weekend by missing the Joker bonus point but luckily for them, their nearest threats couldn’t capitalise and they only slipped by one point. The Top Tipper of the Top Ten though was SuckerForRed who clearly reads and respects the advice of this humble weekly prophet and picked up 5 of the available 6 points for the weekend. It seems that the game that tripped most of us was the last one of the round. I was sitting pretty with four from four when once again, 20 minutes into the last game I knew it was all over. The Force were getting pumped and it was time to look away.
Round 18
The South African teams are back on board so it’s full steam ahead for the Super Rugby again for this weekend with 7 games. There’s a large portion of the field still in with at least a mathematical chance of making the top 6, so there’s still plenty of games that have a lot riding on them. Here’s my view on how these games might go.
The Contenders
Chiefs vs Hurricanes. With only 6 competition points separating first from last in the NZ conference, any derby match is going to be high stakes. A loss for the Chiefs could spell curtains for the defending champs and a win for the Canes could catapult them into top spot. That being said though, I’m expecting both teams to play as only they know how; attack. The last time the two teams met was in round 15 and the Canes were the resounding victors with a 45-8 thumping. The winner of this fixture generally goes to the home side though so we’ll see if playing in Waikato is enough for the Chiefs to turn around their previous result. Me? I’m going against the grain and tipping the Hurricanes.
Crusaders vs Blues. The Blues did everything right last weekend. They attacked mercilessly and converted chances into points. When on their own line their defence was like a wall; nothing was getting through. In saying that though, this week will be a different kettle of fish. Taking on the Crusaders in Christchurch is never easy. Especially when they are sitting on top of the conference with a week to go before finals. As with the previous NZ derby, these games tend to go to the home side with the only team of the two winning away in recent times was the Crusaders in 2012. If you were a betting man chasing some value, then a punt on the Blues at $3+ could be your bet. In your tips though, just lock in the 7 time champions and forget about it. Crusaders to win this one.
Force vs Reds. This is shaping to be a fascinating fixture. Disregarding last weeks results, this is a no contest but a week is a hell of a long time in Rugby and the Force will be on full alert. At the end of the season I’m expecting last weekends results for both teams to be an outlier with regard to the rest of their respective seasons.
That won’t stop Reds fans getting all optimistic and proclaiming that they are back baby! Nor will it settle the all too familiar ‘sick in the guts’ feeling that some Force fans will feel thinking that their bubble has finally burst. I’m tipping the Reds but anyone who cares about their result should be all over the Force to win again at home and continue their recent dominance over the Queenslanders.
Waratahs vs Highlanders. This is going to be the match of the round in my books. The home side are on a 5 match winning streak, are top of the Australian conference and also the top of the overall standings. They have their fate in their own hands. Win the next four games on the trot and they are Champions. The Highlanders are equal first in the NZ conference in terms of competition points but are sitting second due to their slightly poorer W/L ratio.
In the head to head stats over the past 10 years the two teams have met 9 times with the Tahs holding a small advantage of 5 wins and 4 losses. More recently though the Highlanders have had the wood over the Tahs winning 2 of the last 3 and the last Waratah victory coming in 2011. Both teams can score plenty of points. Last 5 games the Tahs have averaged nearly 39 points per game and the Highlanders 26 points. Defence wise though in the last 5 games the Tahs have only conceded 18 points per game and the Highlanders nearly 27 points. To me this paints a pretty clear picture. Both teams are red hot with the ball in hand but unfortunately for the Clan, they are leaking too many points to be ultra competitive at this point in the season. My tip is for the Waratahs to take this one.
The Jokers
Looking at the tipping stats there’s a few games that are heavily backed on one side. The Tahs and the Crusaders are two of the stand outs with nearly 95% of the tips favouring them. Given the quality of their opposition though, whilst they may be favourites, I’m not sure they are Joker material. For me, I’d be looking at either the Sharks over the Cheetahs or the Lions over the Rebels but I’m not super comfortable in either of those tips. Although the Sharks should win easily, the Cheetahs are a team that really like to ambush their South African brothers. Also my Joker tips all year have tended to be on anyone playing the Lions, not the Lions themselves. The Rebels are a good side at times and they have showed that plenty of times before but how they played last week and the fact they are playing in South Africa means that’s where I’ll be playing my Joker. Letting it ride on the Lions.
