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After 20 weeks and 124 matches, it all comes down to this: The Cyclone & Floods versus The Earthquakes. As the waters receded and the winds died down, and the Queenslanders put down the mops and sandbags and began preparing for the coming Super Rugby season, their home ground was just drying out. Meanwhile, across the Tasman a different disaster was unfolding as the earth moved, breaking not just the Crusaders’ home stadium but the ground their city is built on as well. Though clearly not their spirits.
It’s fitting that the two teams playing off for the inaugural SupeRugby title come from the provinces that have been through so much. Perhaps it was their real-world trials that galvanised them, as Gagger theorised on last weeks podcast. Perhaps it’s just their time: the clash of a traditional force and a rising one. Whatever reasons lie in the background, it’s both clear and perfectly appropriate that 2011’s best and strongest teams are the last two standing.
But, really, this is about the rugby, so let’s take a look.
The Crusaders return from South Africa after brushing aside the Stormers in Cape Town on the weekend. Any other team would be written off after traveling to South Africa for a game then back to Brisbane, but even with their delays getting out of the republic, the Crusaders have made travel the norm this year and most punters are backing them to lift one more time.
They are largely free from injury and able to field a near-full strength team, which is what you want at this time of year. The only injury worry involves Sean Maitland, who sat out training this week, but it was apparently just an effort to prevent overworking the ankle as it builds back up. The injured shoulder to Andy Ellis appears to have been overcome, and he should be a starter, with only a final fitness test standing in his way. It has also been reported that reserve lock Luke Romano made it to Brisbane after being held up in Africa with chickenpox.
It appears the Reds will also be entering this game with some stability, Ewen McKenzie being able to name an unchanged lineup for just the second time this season. A good omen there; the last time he did that was the regular season match against the Crusaders, which we know the Reds won 17–16. It’s heartening that this week’s podcast guest Beau Robinson made it through unscathed from the semi-final. He told us that he pulled up all right, just a bit muscularly sore from the physicality. It also means that the neck/head concern that saw Radike Samo leave the field was nothing too sinister.
To the game itself: the biggest talking point so far has been scrum concerns, especially considering the way the Crusaders tore the Stormers’ scrum a new one. And the Reds have a perceived weakness at the scrum. What, did he just say ‘perceived’? Yes, yes I did. While the Reds’ scrum is not going to strike fear into the hearts of opposition packs, it hasn’t really been disgraced all year. Against the Waratahs they withstood an eternity camped on their 5 metre line and didn’t yield. They have managed to scrap and dig in and cope with everything that has been thrown at them.
The other thing here is: how many scrums are they going to have? Given these two teams’ high skill levels, how many handling errors are likely? Just looking at the Blues game last weekend, the first scrum wasn’t until somewhere around the 30-minute mark. I just can’t see these two teams causing the type of game that will be scrum intensive; they both like a high tempo game. It is more likely to be kicking that influences things.
On kicking, Carter kicked five penalties from seven attempts against the Stormers and successfully converted both tries to give him a 78 per cent success rate. Compare that to Quade’s kicking, with 3 from 7 or 43 per cent, and we can only hope there is room for some extra worry lines on Ewen’s forehead. Will it be an issue? It certainly gave the Blues reason to feel like they were still in the game, when they could have been shut down a lot earlier, but Quade has the ability, and knack, of being able to take more points off the field than he leaves on.
Key Match-up: I think there will be two deciding factors, both covered above: the pack and the fly-halves. Looking at the packs, if the Reds can scrap like they have all year, and there is no reason they can’t, they will do enough to give their backs the front-foot ball they thrive on.
If that happens, we should see the two first fives playing with command. Carter, who for so long has been the benchmark, facing off with the Reds’ maestro, who has grown so much in stature and poise over the last couple of years. There have been plenty of comparisons between these two and it is important to note that Carter is 29 while Cooper is only 23. What was Dan Carter doing six years ago? Playing second fiddle to Andrew Merhtens.
They are also very different types of players. While Dan Carter’s cool head allows him to control his backline to perfection and his accurate goal-kicking adds the icing, Quade is more likely to grab the game by the scruff of the neck himself with a flash of audacious brilliance. That is not to say Quade doesn’t control the game; in fact, that has been probably his area of greatest improvement over the last year.
Mouthwatering, right? However it turns out, we are surely hoping we get a similar match-up on October 23…
Tip: When I started writing I was pretty sure the Reds were going to chalk up their ‘Lose one before you can win one’ Final appearance, but after thinking this through and talking to the camp over the last few days, I am not sure now. This is a Reds team brimming with confidence, yet not full enough of their own press to believe that success will come for free. I think they are prepared to put in the effort to earn it. They have full confidence in the game plan their coaching team will have drawn up and they will go out and execute it with the accuracy they have become known for. In my least confident tip this season, I am tipping the Reds to go all the way.
Reds by 5!
Reds: 15. Jono Lance, 14. Rod Davies, 13. Anthony Faingaa, 12. Ben Tapuai, 11. Digby Ioane, 10. Quade Cooper, 9. Will Genia, 8. Radike Samo, 7. Beau Robinson, 6. Scott Higginbotham, 5. James Horwill, 4. Rob Simmons, 3. Greg Holmes, 2. Saia Faingaa, 1. Ben Daley. Reserves: 16. James Hanson, 17. Guy Shepherdson, 18. Adam Wallace-Harrison, 19. Jake Shatz, 20. Liam Gill, 21. Ian Prior, 22. Will Chambers.
Crusaders: 15. Tom Marshall, 14. Sean Maitland, 13. Robbie Fruean, 12. Sonny Bill Williams, 11. Zac Guildford, 10. Dan Carter, 9. Andy Ellis, 8. Kieran Read, 7. Richie McCaw (c), 6. George Whitelock, 5. Sam Whitelock, 4. Brad Thorn, 3. Owen Franks, 2. Corey Flynn, 1. Wyatt Crockett. Reserves: 16. Quentin MacDonald, 17. Ben Franks, 18. Luke Romano, 19. Matt Todd, 20. Kahn Fotuali’i, 21. Matt Berquist, 22. Ryan Crotty.
Referee: Bryce Lawrence
