Does crime pay? Looking at the chart to the right, you might well think it does when it comes to Super Rugby this year, as the top two and bottom two positions on the log correlate perfectly. The top two most penalised teams are winning the comp, the least penalised teams are losing it. Simple.
Of course, the rest don’t correlate – so this one factor is not a key determinant of success or failure overall. What’s interesting is when you delve a little deeper to see how it works for some team and not others, and to do that lets take the arch villains of our table and ladder leaders – The Chiefs.
Where they are head and shoulders above anyone else is in the number of penalties they give away in defence – they are the highest in the comp here, especially when it comes to penalties at the ruck and for offside, where they are also the most penalised team in both cases.
It’s interesting to see though, where they give away those penalties. For giving away penalties in any part of the field other than their own 22, they are either the highest, or second highest. Get to their own 22 though, and they drop like a stone to 12th. What this results in is that despite the number of penalties given away, few are in kickable positions. At only 37.5% of their penalties resulting in a shot, they are 12th in shootable penalties (the Bulls are at the bottom with only 32,7%, the Blues and Lions are 2nd and 3rd highest at 56.3% and 51% respectively).
Do the Chiefs do this by coincidence? I’ll let you decide. But this pattern of disruption together with the second best tackle completion in the comp results in the second lowest points and try concession in Super Rugby so far this year. There are of course, a whole bunch of other facets of the game the Chiefs are excelling at to complement this strategy.
However, while we can’t say crime pays for everyone all the time, for the Chiefs so far this year, it’s paying a motza.
as always thanks to Rucking Good Stats for the numbers!
