This is the Super Rugby Ultimate Preview, your one-stop shop for everything you need to know for those all-important tips or fantasy transfers. As always the Brown Hornet is on board, providing his well thought-out tips for each fixture.
Friday 20th May
Blues v. Stormers @ Eden Park, Auckland 5:35pm AEST
Blues: 15 Lachie Munro, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Luke McAlister, 11 Sherwin Stowers, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Luke Braid, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Anthony Boric, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu (c), 1 Tom McCartney. Reserves: 16 Pauliasi Manu, 17 Tevita Mailau, 18 Chris Lowrey, 19 Sean Polwart, 20 Chris Smylie, 21 Winston Stanley, 22 Rene Ranger.
IN: Munro, Stowers, Kaino, W Stanley, McCartney
OUT: Ranger, B Stanley, Lowrey, King, Mailau
Another backline reshuffle for the Blues, with Payne moving to outside centre and Munro coming in at the back. Rene Ranger has a week on the bench, while Jerome Kaino returns from injury.
Stormers: 15. Conrad Jantjes, 14. Gio Aplon, 13. Johann Sadie, 12. Juan de Jongh, 11. Bryan Habana, 10. Lionel Cronje, 9. Ricky Januarie, 8. Duane Vermeulen, 7. Francois Louw, 6. Schalk Burger (c), 5. Andries Bekker, 4. Rynhardt Elstadt, 3. CJ van der Linde, 2. Deon Fourie, 1. Wicus Blaauw. Reserves: 16. Tiaan Liebenberg, 17. Brok Harris, 18. Steven Kitshoff, 19. Anton van Zyl, 20. Dewaldt Duvenage, 21. Danie Poolman, 22. Nick Koster.
IN: Sadie, de Jongh, Cronje, van der Linde, Poolman, Koster
OUT: Fourie, De Villiers, Grant, Harris, Steenkamp
Fourie, De Villiers and Grant are all out with injury, forcing a major upheaval in the Stormers backline.
Recent History: Blues 3 – 2 Stormers. The Blues were knocked off at home last year by the Stormers 33–21, which will give the Saffas plenty of confidence.
Last 5: Blues WWWWL, Stormers WxWLL
Hornet’s Tip: The Blues are at home after going down in a pulsating game against the Reds last week, which they nearly nicked. They were good in that game, even though they gave up a substantial early lead. Pat Lam has made a few changes and they will be wanting to put a gap between themselves and the trailing pack in their conference. I expect them to be well up for this game. The Stormers seem to have a dose of the final straight staggers and they must be looking over their shoulders big time. Their recent form isn’t that great and they will be desperate to take something away from this game. Maybe a little too early to call it, but I reckon they could be gone. Blues by 10.
Odds: Blues $1.40, Stormers $3.00
Saturday 21st May
Crusaders v. Chiefs @ McLean Park, Napier 5:35pm AEST
Crusaders: 15 Tom Marshall, 14 Brent Ward, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Willi Heinz, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Chris Jack, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett. Reserves: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Owen Franks, 18 Brad Thorn, 19 Jonathan Poff, 20 Steve Alfeld, 21 Matt Berquist, 22. Tu Umaga-Marshall.
IN: Ward, Crockett, Thorn, Poff, Umaga-Marshall
OUT: Williams, O Franks, Wheeler, Todd
SBW is the big loss for the Saders, with Matt Todd having a week off as well.
Chiefs: 15. Mils Muliaina (c), 14. Lelia Masaga/Tim Nanai-Williams, 13. Richard Kahui, 12. Dwayne Sweeney, 11. Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10. Stephen Donald, 9. Brendon Leonard, 8. Fritz Lee, 7. Sam Cane, 6. Liam Messam, 5. Craig Clarke, 4. Romana Graham, 3. Ben Afeaki, 2. Hika Elliot, 1. Sona Taumalolo. Reserves: 16. Aled de Malmanche, 17. Toby Smith, 18. Callum Retallick, 19. Taiasina Tuifua, 20. Taniwha Kerr-Barlow, 21. Tim Nanai-Williams/Mike Delany, 22. Jackson Willison
IN: Cane, Taumalolo, Retallick, Tuifua
OUT: Latimer, Smith, Ross
Lelia Masaga is in doubt and has been bracketed with Nanai-Williams. Latimer is out with injury, and Taumalolo gets a starting spot in the front row.
Recent History: Crusaders 3 – 2 Chiefs. The Crusaders took their Round 9 clash 34–16, although it was tight until the Saders clinched it with a try at the death.
Last 5: Crusaders WLWWL, Chiefs LWLWW
Hornet’s Tip: A very intriguing game this one. The Crusaders were shock losers on the weekend to the Cheetahs, though in fairness they have a massive injury toll. They will be seriously testing their depth at this late stage of proceedings, especially in the backs. Their best chance will be to deny the Chiefs backs the ball and turn the game into an arm wrestle. Still, they’ve overcome adversity before this season. The Chiefs will be have some self-belief after kocking off the Stormers and they have a dynamic backline. The key will be for their pack to secure enough ball for them to get opportunities to score. I wouldn’t like them running at me if I were the Cru. This one could go either way; I’m going to hold my breath and go with the Chiefs by 3.
Odds: Crusaders $1.27, Chiefs $3.85
Waratahs v. Lions @ SFS, Sydney 7:40pm AEST
Waratahs: 15. Kurtley Beale, 14. Lachie Turner, 13. Ryan Cross, 12. Tom Carter, 11. Sosene Anesi, 10. Berrick Barnes, 9. Luke Burgess, 8. Ben Mowen, 7. Chris Alcock, 6. Dave Dennis, 5. Sitaleki Timani, 4. Dean Mumm, 3. Sekope Kepu, 2. Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1. Benn Robinson. Reserves: 16. Damien Fitzpatrick, 17. Al Baxter, 18. Kane Douglas, 19. Hugh Perrett, 20. Brendan McKibbin, 21. Daniel Halangahu, 22. Tom Kingston.
IN: Alcock, Polota-Nau, Fitzpatrick, Perrett
OUT: McCutcheon, Ulugia, Roberts
TPN is back, but McCutcheon is out. Alcock fills his spot, with Perrett coming onto the bench.
Lions: 15 Jaco Taute, 14 Lionel Mapoe, 13 Alwyn Hollenbach, 12 Doppies La Grange (c), 11 Deon van Rensburg, 10 Butch James, 9 Jano Vermaak, 8 Josh Strauss, 7 Michael Rhodes, 6 Derek Minnie, 5 Wikus van Heerden, 4 Franco van der Merwe, 3 Pat Cilliers, 2 Bandise Maku, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg. Reserves: 16 Edgar Marutlulle, 17 Jacobie Adriaanse, 18 Warren Whiteley, 19 Cobus Grobbelaar, 20 Rory Kockott, 21 Elton Jantjies, 22 Dylan Des Fontein.
IN: La Grange, James, Adriaanse
OUT: Des Fountain, Jantjies, Francis, Buys, Boshoff
Captain La Grange returns in a big boost for the Lions. Butch James comes in as well to make his first start for the season.
Recent History: Waratahs 5 – 0 Lions. The Waratahs have rarely been pushed by the Lions, and gave them an absolute shellacking last year 73–12 at home.
Last 5: Waratahs LLWWx, Lions LLxLW
Hornet’s Tip: The Tahs have a chance to take a big step towards finals contention this week if they can knock the Lions off, who beat a deplorable Brumbies outfit last weekend. The Tahs have struggled to find their mojo this season, but to their credit they have stayed in contention even while not playing that well. They will want to charge out of the gates early and score some points to avoid the embarrassment of a repeat of the Cheetahs game. A bonus point will be like gold if they can secure it. The Lions probably don’t have a lot to play for at this stage of the season, but they gave plenty to knock the Brumbies off. Truth be told, they should have won by more. I think they’ll encounter sterner resistance against the Tahs and I’m tipping the Sky Blues by 7.
Odds: Waratahs $1.09, Lions $7.70
Force v. Brumbies @ nib Stadium, Perth 10:05pm AEST
Force: 15. Pat Dellit, 14. Nick Cummins, 13. Rory Sidey, 12. James O’Connor, 11. David Smith, 10. Willie Ripia, 9. Brett Sheehan, 8. Ben McCalman, 7. David Pocock, 6. Matt Hodgson, 5. Nathan Sharpe (c), 4. Sam Wykes, 3. Matt Dunning, 2. Nathan Charles, 1. Pek Cowan, Reserves: 16. Ben Whittaker, 17. Kieran Longbottom, 18. Tom Hockings, 19. Jono Jenkins, 20. James Stannard, 21. Gene Fairbanks, 22. Alfie Mafi.
IN: Sidey, McCalman, Longbottom, Jenkins, Fairbanks
OUT: Inman, Brown, Fairbrother
Mitch Inman is out and Dick Brown gets a break. Sidey and McCalman are their capable replacements.
Brumbies: 15. Pat McCabe, 14. Henry Speight, 13. Tyrone Smith, 12. Christian Lealiifano, 11. Adam Ashley-Cooper, 10. Matt Giteau (c), 9 Josh Valentine, 8. Julian Salvi, 7. Colby Faingaa, 6. Rocky Elsom, 5. Ben Hand, 4. Mark Chisholm, 3. Ben Alexander, 2. Stephen Moore, 1. Jono Owen. Reserves: 16. Anthony Hegarty, 17. Jerry Yanuyanutawa, 18. Peter Kimlin, 19. Michael Hooper, 20. Patrick Phibbs, 21. Robbie Coleman, 22. Andrew Smith.
IN: Speight, Salvi, Elsom, Chisolm, Hegarty, Yanuyanutawa
OUT: Smith, Vaea, Chapman, Kimlin, Edmonds, Ma’afu
A couple of big changes for the Brumbies, the most prominent being the return of Rocky Elsom. Chisholm comes back to the starting team for his 100th game.
Recent History: Force 3 – 2 Brumbies. The Force won in Round 9 27–19 in the capital, but the Brumbies won the last clash in Perth 24–15 last year.
Last 5: Force WWLLx, Brumbies LxLLL
Hornet’s Tip: A near bottom-of-the-table clash with a pair of battling teams. The Force have nearly a full complement back and will want to give a far better account of themselves tactically than their last start. Less boot and more run should be the order of the day. There is no point in having guys like O’Connor and co. back if you are going to kick the leather off the ball all day. The Brumbies have officially hit rcok bottom, I feel. After their terrible performance against the Lions, they copped the spray to end all sprays from Tony Rea — most of it deserved. I think we’ll find out a bit about them as a group this week. I’m tipping the Force by 10.
Odds: Force $1.42, Brumbies $2.90
Sunday 22nd May
Cheetahs v. Rebels @ Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria 1:05am AEST
Cheetahs: 15. Riaan Viljoen, 14. Riaan Smit, 13. Robert Ebersohn, 12. Corne Uys, 11. Ryno Benjamin, 10. Sias Ebersohn, 9. Sarel Pretorius, 8. Davon Raubenheimer, 7. Ashley Johnson, 6. Kabamba Floors, 5. Wilhelm Steenkamp (c), 4. Francois Uys, 3. WP Nel, 2. Adriaan Strauss, 1. Coenie Oosthuizen. Reserves: 16. Ryno Barnes, 17. Lourens Adriaanse, 18. Martin Muller, 19. Johan Wessels, 20. Tewis de Bruyn, 21. Naas Olivier, 22. Hennie Daniller.
IN: Floors, Muller, Wessels
OUT: Brüssow, Vermeulen
The Cheetahs lose the talented Heinrich Brüssow, with Kabamba Floors taking his place.
Rebels: 15 Richard Kingi, 14 Cooper Vuna, 13 Mark Gerrard, 12 Stirling Mortlock (c), 11 Luke Rooney, 10 Julian Huxley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Tim Davidson, 7 Jarrod Saffy, 6 Luke Jones, 5 Alister Campbell, 4 Hugh Pyle, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Greg Somerville. Reserves: 16 Heath Tessman, 17 Rodney Blake, 18 Kevin O’Neill, 19 Michael Lipman, 20 James Hilgendorf, 21 Afusipa Taumopeau, 22 Peter Betham.
IN: Vuna, Gerrard, Davidson, Saffy, Jones, Weeks, Robinson, Blake, Hilgendorf
OUT: Mitchell, Taumopeau, Delve, Lipman, McDonald, Tessman, Henderson
Plenty of changes for the Rebels, with eight new faces in the run-on side.
Recent History: None
Last 5: Cheetahs LxWWW, Rebels LLLLL
Hornet’s Tip: The Cheetahs shocked many people, including yours truly, and knocked off an injury-ravaged Crusaders team last week. Truth be told though, they’ve looked a lot better in the last few games. They do need do something about that defence however, as scoring bags of tries every weeks won’t always win footy games. The Rebels had a pretty rough first half against the Bulls last week, before splitting the difference in the second half. They’ll be up against it again this week, meeting a team playing with a lot more confidence. I’m tipping the Cheetahs by 8.
Odds: Cheetahs $1.08, Rebels $8.25
Sharks v. Bulls @ Vodacom Park, Bloemfontein 3:10am AEST
Sharks: 15. Louis Ludik, 14. Odwa Ndungane, 13. Stefan Terblanche, 12. Meyer Bosman, 11. JP Pietersen, 10. Patrick Lambie, 9. Charl McLeod, 8. Willem Alberts, 7. Jean Deysel, 6. Jaques Botes, 5. Alistair Hargreaves, 4. Steven Sykes, 3. Jannie du Plessis, 2. Bismarck du Plessis, 1. Tendai Mtawarira. Reserves: 16. Craig Burden, 17. Eugene van Staden, 18. Gerhard Mostert, 19. Marcell Coetzee, 20. Conrad Hoffmann, 21. Adrian Jacobs, 22. JL Potgeiter.
IN: Botes, Mtawarira, Mostert, Mvovo
OUT: Daniel, van Staden, Bresler, Potgeiter
Just two changes to the starting team, with Botes in for Daniel and Beast in for van Staden.
Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bjorn Basson, 13 Jaco Pretorius, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Dean Greyling. Reserves: 16 Gary Botha, 17 Rossouw de Klerk, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Danie Russouw, 20 Derick Kuün, 21 Francois Brummer, 22 Gerhard van den Heever.
IN: Hougaard, Pretorius, Matfield, Ralepelle
OUT: van den Heever, Dippenaar, Russouw, Botha
Four changes to the starting side, with Matfield getting back the captaincy.
Recent History: Sharks 2 – 3 Bulls. The Bulls have had the upper hand the last couple of years, winning 27-19 at home last year.
Last 5: Sharks xWLWx, Bulls LLWxW
Hornet’s Tip: The Sharks must surely be smelling blood in the water at this late stage of the season and this game is potentially season-defining for them. If they win, there is every chance they will go ahead of the staggering Stormers and put a substantial gap between themselves and the Bulls, whose season they can seriously dent this weekend. Expect them to be well and truly up for this. The Bulls have kept themselves in the hunt and could still be a rough chance to make the finals. They really need to win this weekend and will have gained some confidence from dispatching the Rebels last week. They will need to step it up several notches in this game or they are toast. Sharks by 5.
Odds: Sharks $1.78, Bulls $2.06
The Bet: The Chiefs showed plenty of ticker to come back and beat the Stormers, and as a result we are now sitting on a $24 profit. This week I am pushing the boat out a bit with a two-leg multi that will have us laughing all the way to the bank if it comes through. The first leg is the Chiefs with a 9 point start, who should get very close to an undermanned and weary Crusaders. The second is the Force, whom I expect to take a tight game at home against the Brumbies. So:
Take a multi of the Chiefs +9.5 into the Force (1-12) at $5.54 with Centrebet
Whom are you tipping?
