The Sharks don’t often lose at Durbs, not often that is, unless they are playing the Reds. Since the inception of Super rugby, the Reds have beaten the Sharks at home 4 times from seven attempts and this week things are pointing to the Reds making it 5 out of 8.
Conventional wisdom suggests you don’t change a winning team but that is what Link has done by naming a revamped starting line-up and again challenging convention by adding extra muscle to the bench with a 5 forwards, 2 backs split.
This move is a direct acknowledgement of the Sharks strength up front and an indication that McKenzie expects them not to stray too far from the style of play they have employed to date.
Perhaps the most fortunate selection for the Reds is the home side’s decision to stick with Andy Goode at fly-half. Two things have defined Goode’s performances thus far – his poor decision making when in attacking positions, and his refusal to do the right thing and get a fucking hair-cut.
The Sharks have only scored 9 tries this season and it seems fairly clear that Goode is the handbrake as the Sharks attack looks far better when he is replaced by Kockott and Pienaar moves to fly half.
Will Chambers gets his second run on start, and his first at outside centre, with Diggers moving back to the wing while Rebel-apparent, Adam Byrnes, swaps spots with Rob Simmons and Jake Schatz gets eight-man jersey ahead of Leroy.
The Reds welcome back Daniel Braid from injury and Sean Hardman starts ahead of Saia Faingaa, while Jack Kennedy makes up the fifth piggie on the bench.
I don’t think it is overstating the situation too much to suggest the Reds can effectively end the Sharks chances of a finals spot were they to roll them this weekend. With this in mind, no doubt the Sharks will display the same aggression and hunger which has seen them get over the line in their last two outings.
That said, the Sharks are not playing well and will have had a limited preparation for this game after not arriving home until late Monday. The Reds on the other hand dealt with a poor Cheetahs team without using up too much energy and have had a full week to recover and prepare.
The clear risk for the Reds is at the scrum which struggled last week and faces a sterner test this time around. Last week the Reds were forced to re-set 6 times on their own feed and loose-head Ben Daley was penalised three times for collapsing which makes the decision to call in extra troops up front a prudent one.
Where the Reds have succeeded this season is playing a possession based game relying on continuity and slick re-cycling. In fact the Reds are third in the possession stakes averaging over 53% in the games they’ve played thus far.
What the Reds have done with this ball is to punch in close to the rucks, in particular down the short-side when the opportunity has presented. This tactic has allowed the excellent passing game of Genia and Cooper to clear the ball wide and give Anothny Faingaa and Diggers one-on-one chances which they have made the most of.
The inclusion of Will Chambers and the move of Diggers back to the wing suggests the Reds will be on all out attack for this one as they continue the quest for goats.
It’s Good Friday as I write this and I have just had a great feast of Fish and Chips – I expect the Reds to dine on much the same thing at the Shark Tank.
Cote says – Reds by 5
