This is the Super Rugby Ultimate Preview, your one-stop shop for everything you need to know for those all-important tips or fantasy transfers. As always the Brown Hornet is on board, providing his well thought-out tips for each fixture.
Friday 24th June
Blues v. Waratahs @ Eden Park, Auckland 5:35pm AEST
Blues: 15 Jared Payne, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Benson Stanley, 12 Luke McAlister, 11 Lachie Munro, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Luke Braid, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Anthony Boric, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Charlie Faumuina. Reserves: 16 Tom McCartney, 17 Tevita Mailau, 18 Chris Lowrey, 19 Daniel Braid, 20 Chris Smylie, 21 Winston Stanley, 22 Sherwin Stowers.
IN: Mathewson, D. Braid
OUT: Smylie, Polwart
Just a couple of changes to the Blues 22, with Alby Mathewson coming back into the starting side after a week on the bench, and Dan Braid coming back after a long layoff with a neck injury.
Waratahs: 15. Lachie Turner, 14. Atieli Pakalani, 13. Ryan Cross, 12. Tom Carter, 11. Sosene Anesi, 10. Kurtley Beale, 9. Josh Holmes, 8. Dave Dennis, 7. Phil Waugh (c), 6. Dean Mumm, 5. Sitaleki Timani, 4. Kane Douglas, 3. Paddy Ryan, 2. John Ulugia, 1. Benn Robinson. Reserves: 16. Elvis Taione, 17. Jeremy Tilse, 18. Pat O’Connor, 19. Chris Alcock, 20. Hugh Perrett, 21. Brendan McKibbin, 22. Bernard Foley.
IN: Anesi, Holmes, Douglas, Ryan, Ulugia, Taione, McKibbin, Foley
OUT: Halangahu, Burgess, Baxter, Polota-Nau, O’Connor, Vickerman
The Tahs lose Hangers, Burgo, Fuse and TPN from last week’s starting side. Ouch. Ouch. Ouch. Ouch. This prompts a backline shuffle with Beale moving to 10 and Turner to 15. A few new faces on the bench with Manly hooker Elvis Taione and Australian Sevens captain Bernard Foley set to make their NSW debuts.
Recent History: Blues 2 – 3 Waratahs. The Blues had a comfortable victory at Eden Park in Round 9, winning 31–17. The Tahs did win the previous game at Eden Park in 2009, so they have won in Auckland fairly recently.
Last 5: Blues LxLLW, Waratahs WLLWW
Hornet’s Tip: On paper, this one shouldn’t be close, given the state of the respective playing lists. However, dig a little deeper and I think this might be a little closer than people might imagine. You have two teams that have realistically limped into the finals for varying reasons. The Blues haven’t been that great over the last month and their place in the finals has largely been on the back of sterling performances in the early part of the season. They have a reasonably healthy playing list right now and are playing at home, but against anyone else right now, you’d probably not tip them on form. The Tahs look in all sorts of trouble, with an injury list that is a mile long and plenty of quality on it. Still, when you look at who will actually put out on the paddock, it’s not too bad — especially in the pigs. The backs are slightly more problematic, but they still have Beale and he’ll be playing five-eighth. I think they’ll give it a mighty shake but expect the Blues to outlast them. Blues by 10.
Odds: Blues $1.30, Waratahs $3.60
Saturday 25th June
Crusaders v. Sharks @ Trafalgar Park, Nelson 5:35pm AEST
Crusaders: 15 Tom Marshall, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Sonny-Bill Williams, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett. Reserves: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Luke Romano, 19 Jonathon Poff, 20 Kahn Fotuali’i, 21 Matt Berquist, 22. Brent Ward/Ryan Crotty,
IN: Maitland, Williams, Crockett, Fotuali’i
OUT: Ward, Crotty, Umaga-Marshall, B Franks, Heinz
SBW and Maitland make welcome returns from injury to bolster the Saders backline. Fotuali’i also comes back to the bench.
Sharks: 15 Patrick Lambie, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Stefan Terblanche, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Freddy Michalak, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Willem Alberts, 7 Jean Deysel, 6 Keegan Daniel, 5 Gerhard Mostert, 4 Alistair Hargreaves, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira. Reserves: 16 John Smit, 17 Eugene van Staden, 18 Ross Skeate, 19 Ryan Kankowski, 20 Jacques Botes, 21 Adrian Jacobs, 22 Louis Ludik.
IN: Alberts, van Staden, Botes
OUT: Kankowski, Herbst, Coetzee
Only one change to the starting lineup for the Sharks, with Willem Alberts coming in for Kankowski.
Recent History: Crusaders 4 – 1 Sharks. The Crusaders have won the last four games against the Sharks, with this year’s edition being a 44–28 rout at Twickenham.
Last 5: Crusaders WLxWW, Sharks LWWDW
Hornet’s Tip: This game should be a ripper, if recent form and the previous match-up between these sides is anything to go by. The Cru have at times looked mortal this year, but that’s understandable when you consider the upheaval in Christchurch and the length of their injury list. They’ve topped their conference and will enjoy a home advantage (of sorts). The pack is very strong and the backs are starting to get healthy again. They’ll be powerful here. The Sharks made the finals on the back of a mighty effort in a cracking game against the Bulls last week. They’ll need every ounce of that to knock the Cru off this week, especially with the length of the flight and all the energy they expended just to get to this point. I think they’ll give plenty, but it probably won’t be enough. Cru by 8.
Odds: Crusaders $1.15, Sharks $5.60
The Bet: We completely missed the mark last week, and are now sitting on a $46 profit. So with not much to choose from this week I am forced to take a multi of one simple option in each game. The Tahs’ defence has been so solid that I am expecting tonight’s game to be a close one even if they are on the wrong end. I also think the Sharks have been massively underestimated by the bookies and they should push the Crusaders in Nelson. So:
Take a multi of the Waratahs +9.0 into the Sharks +13.5 at $3.64 with Centrebet.
Whom are you tipping?
