Preview – Waratahs v Reds

On Saturday the Waratahs and the Reds meet in their Super Rugby opener, as has become a tradition in recent years.

This time it will be at Allianz Stadium and the joint should be rocking more than at the bigger ANZ Stadium at Homebush where the Sydney fixture has been held recently.

The form

If you like to take trial form as a guide, and you shouldn’t, the Waratahs have the edge.

They had three hard-fought games against quality opponents in the Brumbies, Chiefs and Highlanders; all were decided late and they won one game and lost two.

The Reds lost comfortably to the Crusaders who were thrashed in a later trial, and to the Brumbies.

The Tahs were guilty of some poor ball work but looked dangerous when they handled well; the Reds lacked attacking instinct in both games.

The players

The permanent losses of both teams have been well-documented and the fixture won’t be the same without the likes of Genia, Horwill, Cooper, Kepu, Ashley-Cooper and Potgieter. But life moves on and one of the things we’ll be looking at in both sides is how the new starting players will cope.

Waratahs
In a surprise selection new Head Coach Daryl Gibson starts Blues’ recruit Angus Ta’avao at THP and plays Paddy Ryan on the loose head side. After starting in two games in 2013 Jed Holloway gets an overdue selection as no. 8.

Kurtley Beale is flyhalf instead of injured Bernard Foley, and debutant 12, David Horwitz, is paired with 13. Rob Horne in the midfield.

Reliable Matt Carraro starts on the right wing, instead of lightning-fast league recruit, Reece Robinson, and Zac Guildford, who had an impressive pre-season, is on the left.

Japan international Hendrik Tui – is back from a long lay-off

Reds
Coach Richard Graham replaces injured Liam Gill on the open side with Curtis Browning, not really a 7 but abrasive, and 6. Hendrik Tui starts after a long lay-off.

Two interesting backs get a start for the Reds: ex-St. George leaguie Eto Nabuli, at 105kgs, will hope to have the impact of a Taqele Naiyaravoro on the wing, and inside centre Henry Taefu, from Brisbane City, is no small unit at 100 kgs either.

Key matchups

Coach v Coach
Gibson will want to put his own mark on this game to get rid of the tiresome comparisons with the Michael Cheika regime. Graham will want to avoid equally tedious questions—about his future, should his team lose.

Set pieces
Expect the Reds to be formidable in the lineouts as they were best in the competition last year under the management of Rob Simmons, and they have nabbed another giraffe for 2016, Caderyn Neville, from the Rebels.

The Waratahs’ lineout was only middling last year, as was their scrum, despite the presence of scrum coach Mario Ledesma and tight head prop Sekope Kepu. But the Reds will be without injured James Slipper at loosehead prop and his replacement, Ben Daley, is not a noted scrummager.

Midfield v midfield
Both have untried inside centres but Taefu and Samu Kerevi have already combined for Brisbane City—and they won the NRC. Newbie 12. Taefu appears to have a good skill set and tackles strongly.

Horwitz, the Waratahs 12, is different; he acts as an extra ball player from a different side of the ruck, and can step well. Horne’s defensive attributes are well-known and may be playing at 13 to counteract the running play of the two big Queenslanders.

Why should I bother?

You’ve got to be kidding: Waratahs v Reds is the oldest rugby contest in Australian rugby.

In the amateur days the Queensland marketing people had a cunning plan and invited their fans to come to Ballymore to “Boo a Blue”. Attendance was good.

So both sets of fans should bother to watch it and the locals should get to the ground.  They can’t hate as well as Queenslanders can, but if they do their best on the boo and the cheer they could lift their side.

What about neutrals? Even if they don’t get jollies from set pieces (the joy of ex-piggies), the new players on either side will be interesting to watch, including Japan hero from the RWC, Ayumu Goromaru, who is on the bench for the Reds.

Prediction

Since pro rugby started there has been a bizarre sequence of results in this derby series as one team had ascendancy and then the other. From 1996 the Reds won nine in a row; then the Waratahs, seven, and the Reds, five.

The Waratahs have a run of four wins in two years going now, and the underlying causes are their superiority at the breakdown and leaky Reds’ defence. There is no hint from the trials that the Reds are improved in these areas, nor the Waratahs worsened.

Waratahs by 12

Match details

Waratahs:
1. P. Ryan, 2. T. Polota-Nau, 3. A. Ta’avao, 4. D. Mumm, 5. W. Skelton, 6. D. Dennis, 7. M. Hooper (c), 8.J. Holloway.

9 N. Phipps, 10. K. Beale, 11. Z. Guildford, 12. D. Horwitz, 13. R. Horne, 14. M. Carraro, 15. I. Folau.

Reserves: 16. T. Latu, 17. B. Robinson, 18. J. Tilse, 19. S. Lousi, 20. J. Dempsey, 21. M. Lucas, 22. B. Hegarty, 23. R. Robinson.

Reds:
1. B. Daley 2. S. Faingaa 3. G. Holmes, 4. C. Neville, 5. R. Simmons (c), 6. H. Tui, 7. C. Browning, 8. J. Schatz.

9. N. Frisby 10. J. McIntyre, 11. E. Nabuli, 12. H. Taefu, 13. S. Kerevi 14. C. Feauai-Sautia 15. K. Hunt.

Reserves: 16. A. Ready, 17. S. Fa’agase, 18. S. Talakai, 19. B. Matwijow, 20. M. Gunn, 21. S. Gale, 22. S. Greene, 23. A. Goromaru.

Date: Saturday, February 27
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Kick-off: 7:45 pm (AEDT)
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant Referees: Nicholas Berry (Australia), James Leckie (Australia)
TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)

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