Will the Crusaders continue on their merry way, or can the Rebels cause the upset of the season?
OK, cards on the table. I’m an optimist, and I love my Rebels. Just in case you didn’t know this about me. So, keep this in mind as you read this preview.
Surprisingly, the scorelines in previous outings have been fairly tight, notwithstanding the last match at AMI Stadium. On past history, you might think the result for this match cold be close. However, this season tells a different story.
If you were looking for a season 2017 team contrast, look no further than this match-up. The Crusaders are the benchmark side, with a well-balanced squad, and an exciting style of play. To remain top of the NZ conference, and by default, the entire Super Rugby competition, reinforces the Crusaders them as the competition favourites. No doubt the Hurricanes, Chiefs and Lions will be gunning for the Crusaders in the finals.
Crusaders – having a great season 2017.
Contrast the Crusaders with the Melbourne Rebels; bottom of the Australian conference, injury-plagued, and the SANZAAR noose still around their neck, you could forgive them for feeling a little mentally fried. Still, I have to admire their resilience; despite some forgettable games, they have shown in some outings all the signs of a quality team (Brumbies, Reds, first match against the ‘Tahs). Still, it only counts if you put in the full 80min, and as Tony McGahan lamented this week, our half-time and last 20min fades have cost the Rebels dearly.
The Teams
The Crusaders have elected to rotate (read: rest) ten players from the team that defeated the Chiefs 31 – 24 in Suva. The most startling change is the swap of front-row forwards; the reserve front row of Wyatt Crockett, Ben Funnell and Mike Alaalatoa get a start, whilst Andrew Makalio, Joe Moody and Oli Jager warm the pine. What luxury to have!
The big inclusion is Israel Dagg, who after a successful return to club Rugby, gets a start on the wing. With the Lions tour just a few weeks away, his timing is impeccable.
Israel Dagg – back this weekend
The Rebels have made five changes to the side that went down tot he Waratahs in Sydney last weekend. Lopeti Timani moves to lock, Sean McMahon to blindside, and Colby Fainga’s return to his favoured openside flanker. In the backline Nick Stirzaker, Tom English and Sea Naivalu all return from injury. Despite receiving head knocks last weekend, Reece Hodge and Jackson Garden-Bachop have been included, but will be monitored right up until kickoff. On paper, it’s probably close to the best Rebels side of 2017.
Key contests
What are some of the exciting match-ups this weekend?
The front rows.
Being an old prop, I’m always partial to a good front-row battle. Why this battle intrigues me is the aforementioned front-row swap by the Crusaders. For me, it shapes as the perfect metaphor between Aus and NZ Rugby. If an NZ reserve front-row can dominate a starting Australian front row, it underlines perfectly the contrast in quality between our two countries.
The Rebels Scrum has improved in season 2017.
Then again, through my rose-coloured Rebel glasses, this could be a huge mistake by the Crusaders. Smith, Hansen and Lomax are forming a formidable combination up-front, so no team should take lightly. If the Rebels even dream of an upset, the set piece (lineouts included) must be spot on.
Mafi vs Tafua.
If recent form is any indication, the Mafi vs Tafua battle could be a cracker.
In his past few matches, Jordan stepped up to fill the massive void left by Kieran Read, and has shown his worth in both attack and defence. Against the Chiefs, Jordan had a solid game, with 10 tackles (2 missed), and the most metres out of a forward (27 metres, with 4 carries). He will need all his defensive nous to control the Rebels back row.
Amanaki showed the Rebel faithful why he’s been the recruit of 2017. His match against the Waratahs underscores his importance; 84 run metres, 16 carries, 5 defenders beaters, 3 clean breaks and a try for all his efforts. Expect Amanaki to come with Sean and Colby to cause back row havoc for the Crusaders.
Amanaki Mafi – on the way to his first Super Rugby try.
Koroibete/Naivalu vs Dagg
The master, versus the apprentice(s). Sure, Dagg returns after a long layoff after suffering a horrible injury against the Reds. However, his experience will test the Fijian flyers new found confidence. We know how Naivalu loves to play the Kiwis, however, it’s Koroibete who I expect to shine.
Koroibete – getting better each game.
He’s really grown into the 15 man game, with a good game against the Waratahs. With 126 run metres, 9 carries, 6 defenders beaten, and 3 clean breaks, expect his to cause headaches for the Crusader back three. However, if you’re reading Tony, please tell Markia to NOT KICK THE BLOODY BALL.
Should I bother?
What? Seriously, you want me to answer that question?
YES, you should!
Australian Rugby in under siege, both from a mix of insanely talented opposition (read: NZ teams), and a level of incompetence, from its own administrators, that I could write a PhD on in a few years time. The Rebels don’t need the stress of an uncertain future, they need your support, both at the games, and you watching the match in your living room if you can’t make it to the ground.
Please, get to the Stockade this Saturday night! Tell your friends, tell their friends, send out an all-staff e-mail. Just get everyone down to AAMI Park.
For all Melbourne Rugby fans, this is a chance to watch your side go up against one of the most clinical Crusader sides of recent history. Even if we don’t walk away with the points, it will be a spectacle to watch the skills and execution of the Crusaders in full flight.
Come on down, be a part of the fun. Tom might even take a photo with you.
Bust mostly the Rebels need you there, screaming your lungs out for them, supporting them on match day. Let’s make the Stockade sound like the MCG on grand final day. Let’s make our collective cheers give the Rebels that confidence boost they need. Let the Crusaders know who they’re playing, and where they’re playing – the Stockade!
Prediction
The logical one in my tells me it won’t be easy for the Rebels. Crusaders, playing some of their bet Rugby in recent memory,
The optimist in me dreams of a tight match, played at a high tempo, perfectly executed skills, and a winning try to the Rebels off 100 meters run from a front-row forward. Yes, it can happen, and I’m looking at you Laurie Weeks to make this happen!
Sadly, I feel the Crusaders will have our measure in all departments. So, with sadness, I concede the Crusaders will win by a decent margin.
Take me back
Despite our predicament, both these teams have a history of tight matches (yes, I’ve blanked out the 2016 debacle).
Here are some of the greatest hits from years past. First, 2012. That Stirlo swan dive.
And, 2015. Our first win in New Zealand.
If you listen closely, you can pinpoint when Justin Marshall’s heart actually breaks.
The Teams
[one_third last=”no”]
Rebels
1. Toby Smith
2. James Hanson
3. Tyrel Lomax
4. Steve Cummins
5. Lopeti Timani
6. Sean McMahon
7. Colby Fainga’a
8. Amanaki Mafi
9. Nic Stirzaker (C)
10. Jackson Garden-Bachop
11. Marika Koroibete
12. Reece Hodge
13. Tom English
14. Sefa Naivalu
15. Ben Volavola
Reserves
16. Siliva Siliva
17. Fereti Sa’aga
18. Laurie Weeks
19. Culum Retallick
20. Hugh Sinclair
21. Ben Meehan
22. Mitch Inman
23. Jonah Placid
[/one_third]
[one_third last=”no”]
Crusaders
1. Wyatt Crockett
2. Ben Funnell
3. Michael Alaalatoa
4. Quinten Strange
5. Sam Whitelock (C)
6. Heiden Bedwell-Curtis
7. Pete Samu
8. Jordan Taufua
9. Bryn Hall
10. Richie Mo’unga
11. Manasa Mataele
12. Tim Bateman
13. Seta Tamanivalu
14. Israel Dagg
15. David Havili
Reserves
16. Andrew Makalio
17. Joe Moody
18. Oli Jager
19. Luke Romano
20. Jed Brown
21. Mitchell Drummond
22. Mitchell Hunt
23. George Bridge
[/one_third]
[one_third last=”yes”]
Details
Date: Saturday, May 27
Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne
Kick-off: 19:45 AEST
Referee: Glen Jackson
Assistant Referees: Paul Williams, Damon Murphy
TMO: George Ayoub
[/one_third]
