Gareth Anscombe will start at first five-eighth for the Chiefs this weekend after their rainmaker Aaron Cruden broke his thumb against the Cheetahs in Round 8.
The Rebels will be sniffing at this apparent weakness and be quietly confident of getting their first overseas win after coming so close in Dunedin in Round 8.
The Form
The Chiefs played listless rugby against the Cheetahs in the first half last week and got the bullying they deserved. Before the break they could muster only 38% possession, could not apply any pressure and missed 16 tackles.
The Tribe stank and were behind 34-10 at oranges. They rallied, famously, by scoring five unanswered tries in the second half to draw the match, but they would have expected an emphatic win against the lowest-ranked South African team.
They were scarcely better the week before when they had to score three tries in ten minutes to draw the Round 7 match against the Bulls, and that was after they had lost to the Force in Perth in Round 6.
They expected more than seven points in three games on tour against the level of opponents that they played.
The Rebels blew their chance last week
The Rebels blew their chance to get their first overseas victory last week in Dunedin against a Highlanders’ side which had a couple of stars but not a stellar cast. The Melbourne team had beaten the Brumbies the week before and expected the start of a roll, but they faltered by infringing too often at the breakdown, and kicking poorly from hand, and too often.
They lost by only three points but the scoreline flattered them.
The teams
The Chiefs have been the model of inconsistency recently, They started poorly in both games in South Africa but scored a zillion tries in the second halves of both to draw two out of two. Yet in their first tour match they couldn’t score a try against the Force in Perth.
Cruden misses his first Chiefs’ match since he moved to the franchise in 2012; so it will be interesting to see if they try to play the same style with fullback Anscombe wearing the 10 jersey. He plays deeper as a traditional style of first-five, whereas the great strength of the Chiefs is their quick breaking play close to the tackle line, Cruden often foremost—and the wider they get, the more madcap they are.
It’s not that they have too many style options in the backline as they don’t have direct running centres who can run over people; so they use their nifty hands and feet.
Higginbotham – needs the ear of the ref at scrum time
The Rebels will see the Chiefs’ dilemma created by a new style of first-five and try to get at Anscombe, whilst the Chiefs loosies will be trying to protect him. And whichever team has the ball the visitors will target a midfield which is smaller than they are.
They will have noticed that the Chiefs’ scrums got some grief from the refs in South Africa and have Higgers learn his scripts by heart for when he talks to the ref.
More than anything else they have to reduce the penalty count against them, lessen the amount of turnovers that the Tribe will counter-attack from, and kick better and less often.
The players
The Chiefs are giving some players a rest after their three-match tour and, let’s be honest: it is the kind of thing that coaches do, and should do, against a 13th ranked team after three weeks away.
There are eight changes in the run-on team: too many to mention in detail, but the Rebels catch a break because no.8 Liam Messam (who has missed only two games in five years of Super Rugby) gets a rest as a replacement this week. Ross Filipo (bench) and Bundee Aki (start) return from injury to play in their first game of the year.
Tim Nanai-Williams – has to be watched
The Rebels will have to watch out for winger Tim Nanai-Williams who seems to have stepped up to a higher level this year after groin rehab in the off-season. He’s got all the deception skills, can use the ball, kicks with both feet and can dodge you and your mate in a phone booth.
The Rebels have made only one change to their starting team as Colby Fainga’a replaces Sean McMahon on the blindside flank. This means that Nic Stirzacker, who is sniping to effect now, retains his starting scrumhalf spot ahead of Wallaby Luke Burgess, and that flyhalf Bryce Hegarty is pronounced healthy enough to play.
Prediction
The Rebels have played some good rugby this year and came close to beating the Chiefs in 2013. But they have beaten only two teams in their six games because they don’t have enough game-breakers, lack a Wallaby candidate at flyhalf, and show the mark of inexperience in too many aspects of their play.
The Chiefs will be aware that their two draws on tour are a potential time bomb because in 2014 the number of wins acts as the first tie-breaker. They will be jaded after their trip and will miss their rainmaker first-five, but they will be manic about making up for lost points on tour; so I am picking them.
Chiefs by 12
Team lists
Chiefs
1. Jamie Mackintosh, 2. Rhys Marshall, 3. Ben Tameifuna, 4. Michael Fitzgerald, 5. Brodie Retallick (c), 6. Tanerau Latimer, 7. Sam Cane, 8. Kane Thompson, 9. Augustine Pulu, 10. Gareth Anscombe, 11. Mils Muliaina, 12. Bundee Aki, 13. Andrew Horrell, 14. Tim Nanai-Williams, 15. Tom Marshall
Replacements: 16. Nathan Harris, 17. Pauliasi Manu, 18. Josh Hohneck, 19. Ross Filipo, 20. Liam Messam, 21. Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 22. Anton Lienert-Brown, 23. Jordan Payne.
Rebels
1. Toby Smith, 2. Shota Horie, 3. Laurie Weeks, 4. Hugh Pyle, 5. Luke Jones, 6. Colby Fainga’a, 7. Scott Fuglistaller, 8. Scott Higginbotham (c), 9. Nic Stirzaker, 10. Bryce Hegarty, 11. Tom English, 12. Mitch Inman, 13. Tamati Ellison,14. Male Sau, 15. Jason Woodward.
Replacements : 16. Pat Leafa, 17. Cruze Ah-Nau, 18. Paul Alo-Emile, 19. Cadeyrn Neville, 20. Sean McMahon, 21. Luke Burgess, 22. Tom Kingston, 23. Angus Roberts.
Match Details
Date: Saturday 12 April
Venue: Waikato Stadium
Kick Off: AEST 5.35 pm— Local time 7:35 pm
Referee: Matt O’Brien (Australia)
Assistant Referees: Nick Briant (New Zealand), Ben O’Keefe (New Zealand)
Television Match Official: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)
