At the end of Round 8 Australian teams had played four games against New Zealand teams to be 3-1, but in their 11 games against South African teams they were only 3.5-7.5.
There had also been ten Aussie derby games played.
There will be three games against Kiwi teams and one against a SAffer team this weekend.
Highlanders v. Brumbies
After a season of heartbreak and no wins, the Clan will be running out of excuses and variations for their skipper’s post-match interviews. It’s another must-win game for them.
Since spanking the Sharks in the first half in Durban the Brumbies have lost their mojo and have to get it back to be credible finalists. They have two huge games against the Reds and Crusaders after this match and can’t afford to stumble against a winless team.
Last week the Clan had another horror show re-run after being ahead at oranges. They had some bad luck in the second half when the Blues got a try after a forward pass, but they faded in the last 15 minutes.
The Brumbies had another lucky escape. They shipped four tries to the Kings, who played better as a team, and could score only two themselves. They drew the game but not to get a win was a disappointment to their fans and their group.
Team Changes: Highlanders coach, Jamie Joseph, has a made a dramatic selection choice by dropping the halves pairing of first-five Colin Slade and halfback Aaron Smith – All Blacks, both.
They are replaced by two debutant starters: 9. Fumiaki Tanaka, who set up a nice try last week after coming from the bench against the Blues, and 10. Hayden Parker, who has a good running game and kicked goals at 80 per cent for Otago in the ITM Cup last year.
Winger Kade Poki returns from injury and replaces Buxton Popoali’i, who played well as Poki’s injury replacement in the last two weeks, but was concussed playing against the Blues and therefore was not considered for selection.
Despite making some good runs against the Blues, Jason Emery is replaced at centre by Phil Burleigh.
In the forwards TJ Ioane makes his debut on the blindside flank; Jarrad Hoeta moves into the second row and Josh Berkhuis becomes a reserve. The THPs swap their starting and bench places with Ma’afu Fia starting this week instead of recent centurion Chris King.
Two more players return from injuries for the Brumbies though Scott Fardy is still unfit. Fullback Jesse Mogg displaces Rob Coleman, who is omitted. And after his rest due to soreness Matt To’omua returns to the starting team, whilst Christian Leali’ifano moves back to inside centre and Pat McCabe becomes a reserve.
Outside centre Andrew Smith swaps his bench seat with Tevita Kuridrani and will run on.
As planned, hooker Stephen Moore starts instead of Siliva Siliva who got a debut game last week.
Big-engined Sevens player Jordan Smiler from the Brumbies’ EPS makes his debut starting on the blindside flank, and Fotu Auelua moves to the bench to make room for him in the backrow. Sam Carter starts in the second row in place of Etienne Oosthizen who is omitted after running on in his first two Super games.
The Plans: The Highlanders will obviously be looking for their new halves combination to show more zip, but how can they finish off games better?
The Brumbies have had their defence consultant, Brian Smith of the NRL, working with them this week, for the first time in a month. Look for more robust defence in the midfield, which is not a bad idea against Ma’a Nonu at any time. They are also getting narrow in their attack and needing to widen it after sucking defenders in. Jesse Mogg may thump the ball downfield a bit as his long kicking from hand has been missed during his absence.
The match up: Two new debutants at 9 and 10 for the Clan against the no.2 ranked Aussie scrummie and an experienced young flyhalf should give an edge to the visitors, but it all depends what the forwards do, doesn’t it?
Opponent to watch out for: Kade Poki and Hosea Gear are deadly wingers but the glue of the back three is fullback Ben Smith.
Prediction: It’s hard to imagine that the Highlanders’ season won’t turn around, especially at home and after recruiting some good talent and hard-nosed experience. On the other hand, you’d have to back to Brumbies to get their mojo back – Brumbies by 5.
Chiefs v. Reds
The Chiefs have not been perfect but they have been the best performing team in Super Rugby to date and want to maintain that tag against a team that has beaten them the last three times they played.
For the Reds, the upcoming games against the Chiefs and Brumbies will define their season.
Last performances: Both teams are coming off the bye, but whereas the Reds just managed to hold on against the bottom-feeding Clan, the Tribe put away a feisty Blues team with a physicality that was absent earlier in the season
Team changes from Round 7: For the Chiefs 21 year-old big bopper Ben Tameifuna replaces the injured THP Ben Afeaki, and opensider Sam Cane returns to the backrow at the expense of Fitz Lee, with Latimer and Messam changing positions.
On the wing Tim Nanai-Williams returns from injury and replaces Lelia Masaga who has a bad back.
The only change for the Reds’ starting team in Round 7 is that Rod Davies replaces the injured Luke Morahan on the left wing. Chris Feauai-Sautia returns from a thigh injury and takes over Davies’ bench spot.
Digby Ioane, Radike Samo, Saia Fainga’a and Nick Frisby are still resting from injuries but, as with Morahan, they are expected to be available to be selected to play the Brumbies at home in Round 10.
The Plans: Last year the Chiefs got out to a big lead but the Reds came back at them with success underwritten by some good tight work, whilst the Tribe were still in party mode playing champagne rugby.
The Reds will be ill-advised to try to outplay the Chiefs at their own game and will likely get their forwards to earn the right to play expansively, as they did coming back in last year’s match.
Remembering 2012, the Chiefs should counter by having their forwards play with the same intensity as they have in recent weeks; then let the expansive play emerge.
The match up – Flyhalf Quade Cooper against first-five Aaron Cruden, and their different styles of play, are going to be eye-catching.
Opponent to watch out for: Centre Richard Kahui wrecked his shoulder in last year’s game against the Reds and returned to the starting roster just two weeks ago. He rodgered the Blues’ defence a few times in that match, then got the Tribe’s bye weekend off to get married.
The Reds should take care that he does not penetrate their defence.
Prediction: With their recent record against the Chiefs, the Reds won’t be fazed by competing against them, and will have no fear of playing them in Hamilton either. But although they have been racking up wins they have been holding on by the skin of the teeth.
On the other hand the Tribe are the most consistent team in the competition and apart from one game they lost in Cape Town, by two points, they always seem to have their games in hand. They are also outstandingly fit.Therefore, in a cracking match – Chiefs by 8.
Rebels v. Kings
The Rebels broke a five-game losing streak in Perth last week and have to build on that resurgence to make it mean anything.
The Kings no longer surprise people by causing surprises. They are becoming the most unsurprising surprising team in the tournament.
Last week the Rebels overcame on-field and off-field adversity with a gutsy display by beating the Force, making it a double for the season against them and earning a bonus point in doing so. They jumped to a 15-0 lead and although the Force kept coming back at them they were the ones to finish things off.
The Kings could have beaten the Brumbies but shipped too many penalties in scoring positions.
Team changes : The Rebels pack is unchanged.
Cooper Vuna returns to the starting side on the wing which results in other players sliding around. James O’Connor switches from fullback to flyhalf, Kingi from wing to fullback, and Angus Roberts is benched.
The Kings starting pack is also unchanged.
Ace goal kicking flyhalf Demetri Catrakilis returns to the starting Kings XV after having a tour rest on the bench last week and George Whitehead switches to fullback, which means that last week’s debutant Siviwe Soyzwapi becomes a reserve. Shaun Venter replaces Nicolas Vergallo as the starting scrumhalf.
The Plans: The Rebels will have to plan for countering the forward aggression of the likes of blindside flanker Wimpie van der Walt (who is anything but), no.8 Cornell du Preez and Jacques Engelbrecht, when he comes off the bench.
The Kings will be thinking of holding it together for their last game on tour before going home. They will also have to watch their discipline because five of the 18 penalties awarded against them were slotted last week and that could have cost them the game.
The Matchups in the unchanged packs will be full of interest. How will 21 year-old Paul Alo-Emile scrummage against a decent LHP, Schalk Ferreira, and what about the lineouts with Hugh Pyle, Cadeyrn Neville and blindsider Luke Jones against the crafty Steven Sykes and his mates?
Opponent to watch out for: Backrower Jacques Englebrecht has been one of the surprise packages this year. Although he plays 6 or 8 like a one-man wrecking ball, he is 27 years old and virtually unknown outside of playing in the Vodacom Cup. This is also his first year of Super Rugby.
He’s playing off the bench in this game but watch out for the impact when he gets on the park – just ask Henry Speight.
Prediction: I’m going to assume that the Rebels will play two good games in a row and beat the Kings – but won’t be surprised if the Kings surprise me. It’s what they do; but even though the Rebels have lost all ten games they have played against SAffer teams since their commencement – Rebels by 5.
Force v. Crusaders
In the past the Force have caused some cheek against the Crusaders in adversity and will have to do so again. The Crusaders will just want to avoid any more injuries and get out of town with a win in the book.
Last week the Force played poorly against the Rebels and put on a re-run of many of their games this season by coming close but being outscored by the end of the match.
With a depleted side the Crusaders lost a tight game against the Sharks, who had a better goal-kicker.
Team changes: As expected Force second rower Sam Wykes starts the game replacing the injured Hugh McMeniman. Continuing the rotation to rest forwards, Richard Brown replaces Angus Cottrell in the backrow and Pek Cowan runs on as LHP instead of Kieran Longbottom.
In an effort to get some zing in the backline, coach Michael Foley has selected four new starting players. Making their run-on debuts for the Force, flyhalf Sam Norton-Knight starts instead of Sias Ebersohn, and fullback Jayden Hayward runs on instead of Will Tupou. Junior Roselea replaces outside centre Winston Stanley and, making his Super Rugby starting debut, Ed Stubbs is on the wing instead of Pat Dellit.
Dan Carter was supposed to play in this game for the Crusaders after returning from paternity leave, but strained his hamstring in training and will be out for a while. With Tom Taylor also missing the Crusaders will not have a specialist first-five to back up Tyler Bleyerdaal against the Force; so either Andy Ellis or Ryan Crotty will cover the position.
However fullback Israel Dagg and hooker Corey Flynn return from injury. Tom Marshall moves to wing to make room for Dagg, and Zac Guilford goes to the bench.
Lock Sam Whitelock is rested from the matchday squad after a hard campaign and is replaced in the run-on team by “Big Bird” (Dominic Bird). Likewise Matt Todd is replaced by Shane Christie who starts on the openside in his first Super Rugby game.
The Plans: The Force played a decent game when they beat the Reds in Round 5 by defending strongly and also being accurate and a bit inventive on attack. Since then they have played a narrow game and have often looked as though they were playing for penalties.
They need to get back to the good things they did against the Reds. As part of the plan they have to get more good ball to inside centre Kyle Godwin and work towards Alfie Mafi’s wing as much as is possible.
The Crusaders will respect the Force but will be more concerned about managing the changes to their depleted team than anything the Force can produce.
The Matchup: There are not a lot of good matchups but the Force backrow will be confident of matching a Crusaders unit without McCaw, Read and Todd playing, and a rookie starting.
Opponent to watch out for: Who not to? But Robbie Freuen is in bashing good form.
Prediction: The Force have not been living up to their name, even at home, and they have won just three of their last 16 games. It is unlikely that the Crusaders, even in their depleted state, will give them too many sniffs of their second victory for the year – Crusaders by 20.
