After Round 15 Australian Super Rugby teams had played 19 matches against New Zealand teams for a success rate of 59%, but having completed their 20 matches against South African opponents in 2013, they succeeded in just 38% of them.
This meant that they had a success rate of 47% against foreign teams. ¹
Crusaders v Waratahs
The loss last week to NZ Conference leaders, the Chiefs, was a hammer blow to the Crusaders because they are now ten points behind them. They can make up four points if they beat them in Round 19 and more if they add on bonus points; then they will need other teams to beat the Chiefs. But to have an outside chance of winning the top NZ spot and avoid the scramble for the minor overall placings, they can’t lose any games themselves.
The Waratahs have to grasp a few straws and go for it. They will get ahead of the Crusaders if they beat them, which will keep their flickering hopes alive; and if another duck lines up (the Highlanders beating the Blues in Dunedin) they will probably be in 6th place come Sunday.
Last week the Crusaders were below par against the Chiefs who scored three tries to one. Although the ‘Saders took the lead shortly after oranges and still had it with twelve minutes to go, the Chiefs finished stronger. The ‘Saders kicking game was inferior and having clearing kicks charged down was costly.
After some good wins, and warnings that the Rebels’ game was a banana-skin, the Waratahs seemed to take a poor attitude with them to Melbourne. Their ruck work was below par, as it was against the Brumbies the week before and at the start of the season.
They had an ordinary first half and though they hammered the Brumbies with multiple phases after oranges they weren’t good enough to breach their defence when running side to side.
Team changes: Hooker Corey Flynn returns from injury for the Crusaders but THP Owen Franks is still crocked; so Nepo Laulala starts again. Lineout guru Sam Whitelock is also injured and will be replaced by big Bird.
Willi Heinz gets another crack at scrumhalf otherwise the starting backline is intact.
For the Tahs, Cliffy Palu has a knee injury and is replaced in the backrow by Pat McCutcheon who will play on the blindside flank, whilst skipper Dave Dennis moves to Palu’s spot at no.8.
Rob Horne returns as inside centre replacing Berrick Barnes who limped off the field last week, but is named in the reserves. Winger Cam Crawford replaces Drew Mitchell after recovering from a corked thigh, and scrummie Brendan McKibbin starts instead instead of Ben Lucas after a spell on the bench .
The Plans: It was strange to see Dan Carter have a crook game last week and the Crusaders having an overall bad kicking game. No doubt kickers Carter and Taylor will be having some extra practice and if the north-west wind arrives, as forecast, their local knowledge could be key.
The Waratahs have to get back to their good ruck work they had a few weeks ago and fix up their discipline which faltered against the Rebels. Needless to say: their ordinary lineout should have got more work at training this week; otherwise it could be a weakness again even though the Crusaders’ lineout quarterback, Sam Whitelock, won’t be playing.
And yeah – Dave Dennis should plan to get into the ear of the ref about Wyatt Crockett’s scrummaging; and they should consider aiming a few charge-downs opposite Dan Carter’s left foot, as the Chiefs did last week.
The Matchup: Whatever else they do, the Tahs will have to match up in the lineout department. Come to think of it, they had a careless restart contest against the Crusaders in Sydney last year and were punished by the galloping Kieran Read and his sticky fingers. They have been ordinary in restarts this year also, so they will have to match up in this area otherwise the Crusaders will be in the Tahs real estate too often for too long.
Opponent to watch out for: Robbie Freuen is not in great form this season but he usually saves his best for the Tahs and could be a threat from the bench. But watch out for Kieran Read in kick-offs, as mentioned, and also running in wide channels. He is like a thoroughbred coming off a long spell and getting into his work.
Prediction: The Waratahs don’t have the physical presence at the breakdown they had up to a couple of weeks ago and that has had a knock-on effect in the rest of their game. Apart from that they have a poor record against the Crusaders and have trouble getting results in New Zealand against anybody — or way from home, in general — Crusaders by 10
Brumbies v Hurricanes
The Brumbies dodged a bullet last week when the Stormers beat the Reds, and found themselves five points ahead on the Oz table when they woke up on Sunday. They will be loathe to give up that breathing space and will want choke the life out of the lads from Wellington knowing that if they win their last three games the Reds can’t get ahead them in the Australian Conference
The Hurricanes are fourth in the NZ Conference and are rank outsiders to play in the finals. They have four games left and have to win every one of them starting with the one at Canberra Stadium.
Last week the Brumbies jumped out of the blocks in NZ winter conditions and put on a 14-0 lead in the first half with the wind and rain behind them. The Blues came back with a try to Rene Ranger (who else?) but the Brumbies stuck to their game plan. Christian Leali’ifano kept slotting his goals so the Blues couldn’t get closer in the match than four points behind
The Hurricanes are coming off a bye but in Round 14 they couldn’t score a try at home in poor conditions against the Chiefs, who did score one. Their ball control in the wet was often poor, especially in the second half.
Team changes: The Brumbies matchday 22 is unchanged.
The iconic Hurricanes’ captain, Conrad Smith (concussion) is fit again after being knocked out at Loftus three weeks ago, as is All Black hooker Dan Coles (fractured cheekbone) who was unavailable for seven weeks. Tim Bateman drops out ot the team for Smith, and Reynold Lee-Lo, who had a smart and physical game in Round 14, moves in to the second-five spot.
James Broadhurst is preferred at lock to Jason Eaton, and Faifili Levave makes way for Brad Shields who was on the bench last time out.
The Plans: The Brumbies won’t do anything different and nor should they since they will likely have the same rainy conditions at home on Friday night as they did last week in Auckland.
By contrast the Hurricanes had an off day in the wet in their last game and should plan to pass the ball more conservatively than they did against the Chiefs, to avoid spillage.
The Canes will probably remember the maul try they scored against the Brumbies last year and perhaps the inclusion of big bopper Broadhurst signals an intent to try it again.
Both teams will be lectured on the importance of good discipline in conditions where penalty goals will attain more importance.
The Matchup: This could be a be a match within a match between the goal kickers.
Opponent to watch out for: The Hurricanes first five-eighth Beauden Barrett is an able practitioner in wet and windy conditions (and not at all shabby in other circumstances either). Goal kicking aside, he could plot a course for his team around the park and get them into good real estate.
Prediction: With rain forecast for Friday night and the Brumbies proving themselves in the conditions last week, and with the Canes not being able to capitalise on their class out wide — Brumbies by 6
Reds v Rebels
The Reds lost both games in South Africa and their chance to get ahead of the Brumbies in the Australian Conference. They have to have a better attitude against the Rebels than the Waratahs had last week.
The Rebels have deserved the roll they are on and will throw the dice, loaded against them, one more time.
Last week the Reds could not convert the several opportunities they had in Cape Town as they put on a virtual re-run of the Cheetahs game in Round 14, yet they could not stop the Stormers converting the one good chance they had from a training ground move.
The Rebels deserved their breakthrough win against the Waratahs without their two stars on the park, but it was the manner of it that excited Aussie rugby fans. They defended strongly for 80 minutes and repelled several multi-phase attacks when under the pump in the second half.
Team changes: McKenzie has freshened up his Reds by starting three new forwards: blindside flanker Eddie Quirk, who was rested last time, opensider Beau Robinson, and hooker James Hanson, who will be auditioning for the third Wallabes’ hooking spot. Liam Gill gets a well-deserved break on the bench.
In the backs Ben Tapuai replaces Chris Feaua-Sautia, who has strained his hamstring, and Ben Lucas replaces fullback Jono Lance. “Aussie” Mike Harris makes his return from a hand injury on the bench.
The Rebels matchday 22 is the same except that James O’Connor returns from injury and Bryce Hegarty becomes a reserve.
The Plans: The Reds would have had a light week after returning from the RSA but they would have seen how the Rebels showed unexpected starch against several Waratahs multi-phase raids last week. They have to get their men away from hot-potato offloading and punch up around the corner more and get quick ball when they go to ground. Genia has to snipe more to keep the Rebels guessing.
It’s simple for the Rebels: their defence finally clicked into place last week and they just have to do it again.
The Matchup: The flyhalf contest between outcast Quade Cooper and the anointed James O’Connor will have folks agog with interest.
The position-for-position matchups won’t stop there. The Rebels proved themselves as good team and individual players last week against a lot of Wallabies and will want to press their claims against the Oz Reds also.
Opponent to watch out for: I keep saying every week to teams playing the Rebels: watch out for Scott Higginbotham, and I have to repeat that again this week as well, additionally, one more time.
Will Genia had a below average tour, for him, and will lift at home and get around the corner with his snipes: something the Rebels didn’t have to worry about from scrumhalves last week.
Prediction: The Reds have just returned from the RSA after having more travel nightmares, and will be weary, but their home fans should lift them — and I hadn’t seen the Rebels have a decent 80 minute defensive effort this year before last week, let alone one after the other.
Also, they have never shown the consistency to win three in a row; so — Reds by 10
Team Lists
The team lists for all Super Rugby matches in Round 16 can be seen here.
Notes
¹ The success rate counts the Brumbies’ draw against the Kings as half a win.
