Welcome to semi-finals week. The qualifying finals are done and dusted, we’re all set for the two games to decide the grand final game. Chiefs at home to the Brumbies and Crusaders at home to the Blues. I must admit credit to the Blues, they snuck into the finals as the last team having lost more games than they won, managed a last second win against the Chiefs and are now competing for a chance to make the grand final. Love them or hate them, their journey has been one of resilience and tough work. Will it be enough? My Canes are gone so like the supporters of all the other teams that aren’t there it’s time to look at who out of these do I back for the finals. While I admire what the Blues have achieved, I can’t get past the fantastic turnaround of the Crusaders from last year and when they have their top team on the field and play their open running rugby, they’re a joy to watch. I’d like to back the Chiefs but, while I think they’ll probably win this week they let me down so badly in Sydney that I almost don’t care.
Finals permutations
There are a couple of ways the finals could go that may change where the grand final’s played due to the changes in the seeding after last weekend. The final position for the semis is 1 – Crusaders play 4 – Blues in Christchurch and 2 – Chiefs play 3 – Brumbies in Hamilton. Due to the Chiefs losing to the Blues last week, they go down one place and the Crusaders go up one. The Brumbies retain place number 3 and the Blues are the lowest placed team in the semi-finals. So here are the options in no particular order.
Option 1. Crusaders and Chiefs win. They play the final in Christchurch.
Option 2. Chiefs and Blues win. They play the final in Hamilton.
Option 3. Crusaders and Brumbies win. They play the final in Christchurch,
Option 4. Brumbies and Blues win. They play the final in Canberra.
Like always in a final series the way to get the best outcome is just to win during the year and be in the best possible position to have things go your way. The Crusaders get the benefit of the Chiefs loss last week and while the Brumbies need two upsets to host a final, and by that I mean two games where the lower ranked team beats the higher ranked team, that’s a byproduct of finishing 3rd rather than 1st or 2nd. While I get it that some think it unfair that a team beaten by the lowest ranked finalist only loses one position in the rankings, I think it would be more unfair for the team that was after all the minor champions to lose more than one position in the rankings.
I actually think that with the closeness of these games all year and the number of upsets that have occurred throughout the season, there’s a fair chance of any of the teams winning. I think it’ll come down to small decisions at critical points during the game and the teams that manage to make the good decisions under pressure will be the winners. Looking forward to both of these games and just hoping for a good contest.
Lions watch: breaking down the Wallabies’ back-row options for the British & Irish Lions series
Written here in rugby.com.au, Nathan Williamson looks at the back row options for the series. Earlier this year Joe named a squad of potential Wallabies and in this team he had Fraser McReight, Carlo Tizzano, Seru Uru, Rob Valetini and Harry Wilson. During the season all five of them have looked good at different times. Uru, Valetini and Wilson have suffered from injuries that either pushed their start late or caused disruptions in their games and maybe had them off the pace at times. But all five of them are seasoned players who on their best day are as good as anyone and better than some. Certainly, for me the Tizzano/McReight battle has been outstanding and has pushed both of them to play better. I think we’ll see all five selected in the final squad for the Lions.
However, if Joe wants more then there are a few options available for him to choose from that Nathan mentions Gleeson, who missed out originally due to his impending move. Langi has been one of the Waratahs best and has played very well at times. Going against him is the fact that he’s moving and also that he’s looked good in a team which hasn’t been that good and so maybe he’s looked better than he’s actually played. Reimer and Scott from the Brumbies have also played well at times and displayed their class. However, I feel that neither have stepped up to make the position their own, which is why they’ve both been in and out of the team at times. I think this may play against their selection. Nick Champion de Crespigny from the Force has been in outstanding form throughout the season and was a big part of the Force playing so well at the start of the competition. His partnership with Tizzano was very good and they seemed to complement each other well. However, later in the season his form seemed to drop off with the Force’s decline and this may count against him. Nathan also names Leota, Gamble and Brial as possible choices, although with Leota going overseas I’m not sure he’ll be looked at. Gamble played well at times, but for me is a few steps behind Tizzano and McReight and would only be seriously considered if either of them were injured. While Brial had a couple of high moments, I’m not sure he ready yet for international rugby. Certainly one for the future if he keeps developing as he has this year.
Two others named but not considered due to injuries were Charlie Cale and Liam Wright.
The positive thing for me in all this is the number of classy players that can fill all three of the loose forward positions. There aren’t any real weaknesses, and I think the final selection may be based more on the game tactics than anything else. I’d personally like to see a group of six loose forwards with Champion de Crespigny added to the mix. This would allow a tactic of three starting and then have a “bomb squad” of three more to come on with 25 or 30 mins to go. Three fresh loosies who are as good as the starting three would certainly add something to the team and if you pair this with Tate also coming on late it could well be a game changing play.
British & Irish Lions suffer setback as ‘explosive prop’ forced to withdraw from Australia tour
In a setback that will help Australia’s chances and reported here in Planet Rugby, Scotland and Glasgow Warriors tighthead prop Zander Fagerson has been forced to withdraw due to injury. The 29-year-old is battling to overcome a calf injury and his place in the Lions squad has been taken by Ireland and Connacht front-row Finlay Bealham. Fagerson has been sidelined since April after he sustained a calf injury at a Glasgow Warriors training session ahead of their United Rugby Championship clash with Zebre. He’s an explosive prop who was part of the famous touring team’s squad to South Africa in 2021, but only featured in non internationals on that trip.
This is a shame for the guy; however, being quite young if he keeps developing he could well be selected in later years. The Lions have gathered in Portugal for a training camp ahead of the tour but, with so many players still unavailable due to NH finals the English front-row duo, Jamie George and Asher Opoku-Fordjour, have travelled with the Lions to Quinta do Lago to train with the squad.
The front row battle will be epic in this tour. The Lions are traditionally very strong in this area, and in the past it’s one part of the game that Australia have struggled with. However, the Australian starting front row in particular is likely to be very strong and there are a number of players developing well who can back them up. One big issue will be the form of Tupou and whether he can get himself together or not for this tour. On current Super form I think he struggles to make the squad let alone the 23; maybe he can get his mojo back in the Wallaby camp and show that he’s able to do more than scrum well on occasion and then waddle from contest to contest leaning on the ruck. It would certainly be good, and very helpful for the Wallabies, if he can discover his form again.
A bit of a short one from me this week. Have a great Hump Day and look forward to Happyman’s post tomorrow.
