If all things go to plan in Round 19, Australian Rugby fans could see three teams in the Super Rugby Finals, a first in the competitions illustrious history.
With a stunningly comprehensive victory against competition heavyweights the Highlanders, the Waratah’s have locked up the minor premiership for the 2014 Super Rugby season – and with it, a guaranteed home semi-final, granting coach Michael Cheika the opportunity to continue his side’s unbeaten affinity for matches in Sydney.
With the Waratah’s occupying the top seed, there are 5 spots left to fill in 2014’s Finals series. The second seed will go to the winner of either the New Zealand Conference or the South African Conference. In New Zealand, the Crusaders currently lead, boasting 46 points from 10 competition wins, and a points differential of 97. However, the Highlanders currently sit on 42 points from 8 wins, with a points differential of negative 15.
The New Zealand conference winner will be decided on Saturday night at 5:35 pm AEST when the Highlanders travel to Christchurch to take on the Crusaders. A bonus point win for the Highlanders would see them overtake the Crusaders by a single point – thus it is imperative for the Dunedin lads that the Crusaders are denied a bonus point, as the points differential and total number of wins both sit in the Cantabrians favour in case of a points tie.
The South African conference will only provide a single team to the finals, with the Sharks currently sitting third overall. If the Crusaders can beat the Highlanders, the Sharks must earn a bonus point victory over the Stormers in Cape town (Sunday 3:10 am AEST) to improve to second place – a tough ask, as the Sharks have only earned a single bonus point victory in 15 games this season. JakeBall will not be enough to win them the second seeded spot unless the Highlanders can win without earning a bonus point. This would result in a points tie, and the tiebreaker lies in the Sharks favour.
The 4th, 5th, and 6th seeds are where it gets interesting. There are 5 teams with mathematical chances of entering the finals in 3 spots: The Highlanders/Crusaders match loser, the Hurricanes, the Brumbies, the Western Force, and the Chiefs.
If the Crusaders lose to the Highlanders without earning a losing bonus point they will lock up 4th seed. However, if the Highlanders lose to the Crusaders without a bonus point, they will finish on 42 points for the season, currently good for 4th spot on the ladder with the potential to be overtaken by 2 other teams. What makes matters worse for the Highlanders is their dangerously low points differential. It is vital for Australian Rugby that the Crusaders win big here.
The Hurricanes have already played their last game, finishing their season on a maximum of 41 points, currently good for 5th seed. They will be anxiously awaiting the weekend’s results to see whether or not they have scraped in to the finals after winning only half their matches. They will be hoping for the Highlanders to win, and for both the Chiefs and one out of the Brumbies/Force match to lose by a margin greater then 7. If all goes to plan for them, the Highlanders earn 6th seed.
The 6th seed is currently held by the Brumbies in a 3 way tie, on the strength of wins and points differential – keeping the Force and the Chiefs at bay.
The Blues sit in 9th spot with 36 points, and have almost no chance of earning a finals spot. However, at 5:35 pm AEST on Friday, the Blues have a chance to ruin the party for the Chiefs, and the rivalry between these two North Island sides could well see Auckland deny the Chief’s a shot at a third consecutive title. If the Blues win by more than 7 points, the Chiefs will remain on 40 points, and miss the finals. However, if the Chiefs lose by less than 7, the pressure is on the Australian Teams.
The match between the Force and the Brumbies at 7:40 pm on Friday Night in Canberra will play a large role in the composition of the finals. With both teams on 9 wins and 40 points, there are several scenarios that could arise.
For all Australian Teams in contention to make the finals, the following must occur.
1. The Blues must beat the Chiefs. Required Margin: Preferably more than 7. Sportsbet Odds for a Blues victory are $1.78, and have the Chiefs at $2.00. This should be a fantastic game. If you keep your eyes peeled over the coming days you’ll see
2. The loser between the Brumbies and the Force must either score 4 tries OR finish within 7 points. If the Chiefs lose by less than 7, then the loser between the Brumbies/Force must do both.
3. The Crusaders must beat the Highlanders by more than 13 points, preferably by a lot more – The worse the Highlanders Points Differntial, the higher the Force’s chances of seeding inside the Top 6.
If all goes well, the final six will look like this. Get praying, wear your lucky undies, rub your jerseys, and with any luck Australia will make history.
