Now, I don’t want to be too negative (who, me?) but there is a bit of bad news with this Force v. Canes match-up.
Yes, this Round 15 game is being played over in New Zealand on Friday night – Palmerston North to be precise. Have you ever been there?
Palmy, as it’s colloquially known to the locals, is the Hamilton of the lower North Island. This place is about as lively as a blowfly on a winter’s day. There’s actually a main avenue in town called Ferguson Street and an agricultural university called Massey. These people love their farm machinery.
This is a cold and seriously miserable place to be during May, and probably most other months of the year as well. It will be about 11 degrees on the Showground terraces, with maybe a few showers after Thursday’s rain. Fresh westerlies and possibly some fog (before or after the westerlies) will round out the conditions.
On top of that, the Western Force will be seriously underpowered in the halves and inside backs – missing Rabbit O’Connor, Willie Ripia, Brett Sheehan and Gene Fairbanks. Rabbs has a series of niggles to his shoulder and neck, Willie R a continuing calf problem and the other two muscle strains.
The Hurricanes have had a poor season so far but might now be on the up. They’ve had a couple of narrow losses recently (to the Blues and Highlanders) and they beat the No. 1 Super Rugby side, the Reds. For this match Piri Weepu (bench), Conrad Smith and Cory Jane are back.
I reckon the enforced break, as well as coming off the bye, will have freshened these guys up and in combination with Hosea Gear, Ma’a Nonu and Aaron Cruden there might be some hijinks going on out back.
The Force will need to control these guys like a Huntaway would corner a flock of merinos on the Rangitikei Plains.
The visitors’ XV has been named, with Cameron Shepherd back to full fitness while Mitch Inman has been included on the bench. There’s a new centres pairing in Rory Sidey and Pat Dellit.
Up front, Coach Woody has been able to insert former Hurricanes prop Tim ‘The Fox’ Fairbrother in lieu of Pek Cowan, who was ruled out after sustaining a broken cheekbone last weekend.
The new five-eighth will be the inexperienced (at this level) James Stannard. Mark Swanepoel is the starting halfback and his backup the new temp signing from the Manly Marlins, Chris Cottee.
The Hurricanes have made two changes in the forwards to the side that lost their clash to the Highlanders. Jeremy Thrush replaces Jason Eaton at lock while hooker Andrew Hore moves to the bench for Dane Coles. One to watch out for is former Australian Schoolboy and Under 19 Wallaby Jack Lam at flanker.
The Canes and the Force have met five times since 2006. The Canes have won four times and the Force once. Last year the Hurricanes outscored the Force seven tries to three and won 47–22 in Wellington.
Even in these foreign conditions I think the Force forwards have the firepower to match the Canes. However, that’s where it ends. There is just no comparison in terms of penetration and creativity between the two sets of backs.
Sure, the Force are likely to truck it up in the centres or maybe play the ten-man game, but waiting for the other bloke to make a mistake — especially facing quality outside backs like Jane and Gear — will probably be counter-productive.
If the Canes can get parity in set piece and let loose their quality backs, assuming they’re in the right frame of mind, then I think there is the potential for this score to blow out – miserable conditions or not.
Lance says: “I don’t think the Manawatu is going to be kind to the Force. Hurricanes by 14”.
Western Force: Kieran Longbottom, Nathan Charles, Tim Fairbrother, Sam Wykes, Nathan Sharpe, Matt Hodgson, David Pocock, Ben McCalman, Mark Swanepoel, James Stannard, Nick Cummins, Rory Sidey, Patrick Dellit, David Smith, Cameron Shepherd. Reserves: Ben Whittaker, Matt Dunning, Tom Hockings, Richard Brown, Chris Cottee, Mitch Inman, Alfie Mafi.
Wellington Hurricanes: John Schwalger, Dane Coles, Neemia Tialata, Jeremy Thrush, James Broadhurst, Faifili Levave, Jack Lam, Victor Vito, Chris Eaton, Aaron Cruden, Hosea Gear, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Andre Taylor, Cory Jane. Reserves: Andrew Hore, Jacob Ellison, Bryn Evans, Mark Reddish, Piri Weepu, Jayden Hayward, Julian Savea.
