If it’s 40 degrees and 95% humidity, it must be the start of a rugby season that once began in April.
And what a season it will be. A post-World Cup year features an all-new Super Rugby format, provides opportunities for new players to fill openings in the national set-up, and will feature precisely none of the mock dog fornication and mass drug use of the other codes (we hope).
We got the GAGR brain trust together and asked them for their fearless predictions for the year. We will of course look back later in the year to draw attention to what we got right and quietly ignore where we were way, way off.
Who do you think will win Super Rugby 2016?
Plenty of votes for the Hurricanes and Highlanders, with a single vote for the Chiefs. Many were intrigued by the Argies/Jaguars, but wanted to see a bit of them in action before committing all the choccies. RugbyReg summed up the prevailing feeling among the expert panel.
“I know it’s all going to be new to them, and they’ll have to overcome a travel challenge, but the quality and depth of their squad is just outstanding.”
Who do you think will win the Aussie conference?
Brumbies. Everyone said the Brumbies. Most picked the Tahs to run second. Their rookie-laden squad screams “rebuilding year”.
Best Super Rugby signing?
Again, a bit of consensus behind Tomas Cubelli at the Brumbies, who exploded onto the international scene last year despite sharing the 9 jersey for the Pumas with the also-not-shabby and much more experienced Martin Landajo. As Lee Grant put it, Nic White’s departure left a big hole in the Brumbies’ squad in a position where they didn’t have a lot of depth. Cubelli’s signing turns a real weakness into a strength.
Other votes went to Willie le Roux and Coenie Oosthuizen, both of whom have joined the Sharks from the South African talent factory known as the Cheetahs, as well as highly-rated young lock Pieter-Steph du Toit, who thanked the Sharks for sticking with him while being out for the best part of two years by leaving for the Stormers.
What do you think of the new format? / Do you understand the new format?
Steve Lenthall was the most charitable. “It’s a little confusing but once you look at for a few hours it starts to be clearer.” Reg was the most realistic. “I think I’m ok with the preliminary rounds but my first real look at the finals system spun me out a bit. But I’m a Reds fan so that’s unlikely to be an issue for me this year.” True enough.
Almost everyone was excited by the inclusion of the Jaguars and the superbly named Sunwolves, but fearful of the inclusion of a Kings side that is clearly going to struggle on and off the field, as well as the oodles of travel that are going to be involved. Is there another regular season sporting league that requires around the world travel? I don’t think so. But as Hugh Cavill pointed out, “SANZAR is risking killing the goose that lays golden eggs.”
Will the Wallabies win the Bledisloe, Rugby Championship, and/or Grand Slam this year?
Everyone but Hugh Adams thought we could win at least one. (Hugh gave the Amy Winehouse response: “no, no, and no”.) Interestingly, there was a lot more confidence about the RC than the other tournaments. In general, the panel thought playing two Bledisloe games in NZ as well as a Grand Slam tour against a bunch of sides out for World Cup revenge (England, Wales, Scotland) would both be too much for our boys.
I must remind my Irish friends that if they’d bothered to make the World Cup semis, we’d actually have completed a grand slam last year on the way to the World Cup final.
Breakout Wallaby star(s) of 2016?
We’re going to have to divide this one into guys who’ve already gotten a cap and the rest. Among the former, there was lots of love for Scott Sio. His powerful performances at the heart of a resurrected Aussie scrum have clearly earned him a lot of love. Sean McMahon also got mentioned.
Among the latter, more than a few votes for Adam Coleman (who looked a bit bigger and fitter in recent trial matches, Ed.), as well as mentions for Tolu Latu, Jack Debrezceni, Nic Stirzaker, Kyle Godwin, and even Ryan Louwrens over at the Force.
For mine, Jono Lance is capable of the step up. A versatile footballer who reads the play, defends well, and kicks goals is always in demand at the top level. But will he get the opportunities? The Force have Godwin at 12 and have signed Peter Grant at 10 – a guy they were first close to signing back in 2009. Way to stick with plan A, fellas.
True to form, when asked this question, Reg nominated only Queenslanders: Samu Kerevi and Sam Talakai. Even when he went outside the sunshine state, it was for Blake Enever, born and raised up north.
Wallaby Wilderness award for 2016?
(The Aussie whose currently in the frame but might never be sighted again after this year).
All veterans: Drew Mitchell, Dean Mumm, Quade Cooper. More adventurous calls nominated Joe Tomane and even Toby Smuth, who didn’t look too out of place at national level last year.
Hugh Cavill nominated Nick Cummins, pointing out that time in Japan and being on the end of an impotent Force backline wasn’t doing his chances much good. It was just over a year ago that he was destroying the Irish at the Aviva Stadium as a first choice left winger for the men in gold, but that seems a distant memory now.
Low-burning issue of the year?
(Something happening under the surface that might flare up over the course of the year.)
Not enough resources for women’s rugby in Australia came up surprisingly often among our team. As did various player drain issues: too much travel making Super Rugby even more unattractive to mid-career players; the plummeting of the Rand in South Africa; the inability of the ARU to keep players who are only an injury or two away from starting in a Bledisloe Cup match.
Also a big concern was the future of Super Rugby. As Gagger stressed, some of the Australian franchises don’t pay their way and it isn’t clear how that is going to change.
Moreover, if some of the panel understand the new format, no-one likes it. This isn’t what the players want and it isn’t what the Australian fans want. The Islanders have been shafted yet again.
And if cricket scores against a few teams result, not to mention a further weakening of South African sides struggling to retain talent, then the whole thing might lose its appeal.
