Any assessment of the Crusaders 2016 prospects must acknowledge the absences of two great players.
Since Richie McCaw has retired, and Dan Carter is now working his magic in France, they are without two of the most important players in New Zealand rugby history—or at least, of the professional-era.
Also absent are quality Super Rugby-level players in Colin Slade and Tom Taylor (both also gone to France), Willi Heinz (England), Nepo Laulala and Dominic Bird (Chiefs), and Luke Whitelock (Highlanders).
In all, twelve of the 2015 squad won’t be returning for Todd Blackadder’s final year as coach.
The newbies have mostly been promoted from the wider playing group, but workaholic openside Tim Boys has been recruited from the Highlanders and three players with Australian connections in Ben Volavola (now capped by Fiji), Pete Samu, and Michael Alaalatoa have been rewarded for standout 2015 ITM Cup seasons.
Carter and McCaw – gone from the Crusaders
The Team
Props: Michael Alaalatoa*, Wyatt Crockett, Owen Franks, Alex Hodgman, Joe Moody, Tim Perry
Hookers: Ben Funnell, Ged Robinson*, Codie Taylor
Locks: Scott Barrett, Mitchell Dunshea*, Luke Romano, Jimmy Tupou, Sam Whitelock
Loose forwards: Tim Boys*, Jed Brown, Kieran Read, Pete Samu*, Jordan Taufua, Matt Todd
Halfbacks: Mitchell Drummond, Andy Ellis, Leon Fukofuka*
Five-eighths: Mitchell Hunt*, Marty McKenzie*, Ben Volavola*
Midfield backs: Ryan Crotty, Kieron Fonotia, Robbie Fruean, David Havili, Sean Wainui*
Outside backs: Israel Dagg, Sione Fifita*, Jone Macilai, Johnny McNicholl, Nemani Nadolo
Utility backs: Jack Goodhue*, Richie Mo’unga
* new Crusader
Sam Whitelock – interim captain
The squad is larger than most due to off-season surgeries for Dagg (shoulder), Crotty (thumb ligaments) and Fruean (torn pectoral). None are expected back until at least March, and probably April.
In addition Kieran Read will sit out the first three weeks and then likely make his way back via the bench. Sam Whitelock has been appointed interim captain in Read’s absence.
Taking into account those unavailable, and assuming no more injuries, the best match day 23 for the early rounds shapes up thus:
Forwards: Crockett, Taylor, Franks, Romano, Whitelock (c), Samu, Todd, Taufua
Backs: Drummond, McKenzie, Macilai, Havili, Nadolo, McNicholl, Mo’unga.
Replacements: Funnell, Moody, Alaalatoa, Tupou, Boys, Ellis, Volavola, Wainui.
Nemani Nadolo – will terrorise tacklers again in 2016
The Draw
If the Crusaders weren’t such notoriously slow starters you’d call this a dream start: two very winnable home games (Chiefs and Blues), a bye, and an on-paper unlosable home game (Kings) before their trip to South Africa (Sharks and Lions).
A repeat of last year’s poor start (14th after week four) would be a setback, but with the expanded playoffs not necessarily fatal to their title aspirations. In saying that, you’d want to win at least three of those first five and rack up some bonus points along the way.
Things then get much tougher with a stopover in Perth on the way back from South Africa, followed by the Jaguares first up upon their return. Next up are the Brumbies away then their second bye in week 10.
Given how strong the Jaguares and Brumbies are likely to be, and the poor record of Kiwi teams in Perth heading back from South Africa, they’d probably settle for one win from those three matches. Anything more will be cream, and any bonus points possibly a godsend at the business end of the season.
The run into (hopefully) the semi-finals is a mixed bag: Reds, Waratahs, Rebels and Hurricanes at home, Highlanders, Blues and Chiefs away. Historically strong finishers, they’ll be wanting at least four wins, no heavy losses, and as many bonus points as possible.
Last year the Crusaders went into their first bye (week four) in 13th place and their second (week 14) in ninth, ultimately finishing seventh and missing the playoffs by just one table point.
A longer back-end this year should suit them, provided of course their front-end doesn’t leave them in too deep a hole, as will the extra playoff berth available to Australasian teams.
The replacement of the automatic four-try bonus point, win or lose, with the French “plus three” system should also work in their favour: history suggests they’ll score plenty of tries (though perhaps not as many as say the Hurricanes) and concede fewer than most.
Kieran Read – will play in the wide channels
The Prospects
The tight five remains powerful and will offer solid set pieces and, together with Samu and Taufua, multiple ball carrying options and strong defence in and around the contact area.
This will allow Read to operate in his favoured wider channels: the prospect of Fruean, Read and Nadolo steaming down their left flank will be giving defensive coaches plenty to think about.
There will never be another McCaw but the anticipated breakdown free-for-all will suit both Todd and Boys. Expect regular rotation between them starting and finishing as Blackadder looks to get maximum value from both, resulting in a steady stream of recycled and occasionally stolen ball, from which the Crusaders traditionally score many of their tries.
The midfield shapes up yet again as a problem area, especially if one or both of Crotty and Fruean are absent for longer than expected. Nadolo is as destructive at 13 as at 11, but the drop-off from Crotty to Havili is considerable.
The lack of depth out wide if Nadolo is forced into the midfield longer-term (and/ or Dagg’s shoulder takes longer than expected to heal) is worrying.
The biggest potential issue, though, is at 10 where the loss of Carter is compounded by Slade and Taylor also moving on. McKenzie and Volavola are both fine players but neither has yet shown the ability to “run the cutter” at this level.
One or both will need to step up big time if Blackadder’s final campaign is to have any chance of success.
Todd Blackadder – his final campaign
The odds
Sportsbet currently has the Crusaders equal-fifth title favourites and the Kiwi TAB has them equal third—in each case tied with the Highlanders. Both have the Hurricanes and Chiefs more-favoured (Sportsbet first and second, TAB equal first) and the Blues 11th.
That looks like a pretty fair assessment of where the Kiwi sides sit relative to one another—although I’d argue that the odds of the Chiefs might be too stingy since Cruden has been out for so long and they are without SBW and Messam.
The fearless prediction
Under the new format five Australasian sides will qualify for the quarter-finals: the winners of the Australian and New Zealand conferences, and the three next-ranked regardless of which side of the Tasman they reside. It’s therefore possible, if unlikely, that as many as four teams from either country could qualify.
I doubt the Crusaders will win the NZ conference but second or third is possible which, assuming the Brumbies and Waratahs again dominate the Australian conference while the others struggle, would be enough to secure a quarter final berth. Even fourth could be just enough, bonus points and differentials permitting.
Predicted finish – 5th to 8th (regular season and allowing for the possibility of a South African team having to be promoted into the top four)
Predicted finish – Super Rugby Champions.
