The Chiefs went down to the Champion Hurricanes in the semifinals in 2016 in a one-sided affair after some very stoic defence. That was only a week after comprehensively taking apart the Stormers in Newlands in a clinical display of attacking rugby.
Which Chiefs team will turn up in 2017?
Tight head prop Nepo Laulala – missed 2016 Super Rugby season
Team changes
In the forwards promising youngsters Mitch Karpik (openside) and Nepo Laulala (prop) finally get a chance at Super Rugby after missing the entire 2016 season through injury. Liam Messam returns (NZ Sevens) to add leadership and punch. Paulasi Manu moves to the Blues.
In the backline hot-stepping Tim Nanai-Williams returns after a year with Ricoh-Japan, and in the midfield 21-year old Johnny Fa’auli has been promoted after a strong Mitre 10 Cup for Taranaki. Both Seta Tamanivalu (Crusaders) and Augustine Pulu (Blues) have moved on.
Shaun Stevenson – Player of the Tournament Brisbane Global Tens
Players to watch
Sean Stevenson – The Player of the tournament at the Brisbane Global Tens showed us what he can do with electric pace, step and accurate pass. Likely to line up at either 15 or 10 when he comes on.
Johnny Fa’auli – Left some bruised players on the park in the 2016 Mitre 10 Cup and got the attention of Chiefs Coach Dave Rennie. A solid player who reads the opposition well.
Nepo Laulala – A one-test All Black prop who suffered a season ending injury early in 2016. Big things are expected of a man with legendary strength and power.
Liam Messam – You cannot bottle and sell the immense experience and leadership that Liam Messam brings to the Chiefs. Look for him to lead from the front.
Sam Cane (right) – ankle needs to be managed
Injuries
The Chiefs squad has a number of injuries, with prop Mitchell Graham (fractured tibia and fibula) and Brad Weber (fractured femur) added to the list after the Brisbane Global Tens. All Blacks hooker Nathan Harris is targetting an April return (ACL) and Sam Cane’s ankle needing to be managed all season. The Chiefs will have few starting All Blacks so will be less affected by the NZRU requirement to rest players.
Chiefs – have written the book on unstructured play
Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths
Defence – The Chiefs played and beat the eventual 2016 Champions, the Hurricanes, 28-27 in round 9 in Wellington. It was a torrid game and highlighted the strength of the Chiefs defence which can win matches.
Broken Play – The Chiefs have written the book on unstructured play and they have the players to take the ball over the gain line and score tries from second, third and twenty-third phase.
Weaknesses
Set piece – There are signs that other teams may have more focus and intensity, and desire to win the ball than the Chiefs.
Coaching – Both head coach Dave Rennie and Assistant Coach Kieran Keane are leaving at the end of this campaign to take up coaching positions in Europe. This may affect the team and players in some way.
Lack of All Blacks – The Chiefs have always been the NZ team with the fewest All Blacks. Normally it is not an issue but with resurgent Highlanders and Blues franchises the Chiefs need every little edge.
Damian McKenzie – Last year’s wonder kid has defensive flaws which if not solved could cost the Chiefs big.
The Draw
The Chiefs draw presents a challenge with a tough opening four weeks and final five weeks. The first four weeks see them playing the Highlanders (A), Blues (H), Hurricanes (H) and Rebels (A) and in the final weeks they play the Crusaders (Fiji), Blues (A), Waratahs (H), Hurricanes (A) and Brumbies (H). The Chiefs will need to win at least five of these games to keep their play-off hopes alive which will not be an easy task.
Chiefs won Brisbane Global Tens – but what did it mean?
Pre-season
The Chiefs won the Brisbane Global Tens which introduced us to the talent and running of Sean Stevenson and the return of Liam Messam, but most will agree it means little in terms of Super Rugby preparation. The Chiefs lost both their preseason matches against the Bulls 28-7 in Brisbane and the Blues 24-16 in Auckland. Chiefs coach Dave Rennie identified the scrum as a problem area and a lack of urgency against the Bulls cost them on defence.
Prediction
I don’t believe the Chiefs will be able to win enough games against NZ teams in 2017, especially the resurgent Blues and Highlanders, and dominant Hurricanes; so they will slump to 4th in the NZ Conference in 2017 and get knocked out in the Qualifying Finals.
NZ Conference – 4th – Quarter-finalists
