There are still three teams in the running to lift the trophy, but it’s very difficult to split them.
England, France and Wales are very similar and the outcome will depend on which team scrums the best and nails more of their goal attempts. The other key variable, and I hate to say it, is the refereeing decisions. There were some flakey calls in the opening rounds, especially the one by JP Doyle against Italy in the 78th minute of the France match. It could all come down to one decision, but let’s hope not.
The story so far
After the opening two rounds, England and France top the points table, having both won their opening exchanges. Who would have thought? Aren’t these two teams meant to be in a rebuilding phase with new coaches at the helm? Yes they are. But Eddie Jones (for England) and Guy Noves (for France) are two excellent coaches and they have identified and executed simple game plans with great effect. But more on this later.
Both teams have also benefited from the ‘bounce’ that seems to happen often when a new coach takes over. I really don’t know what’s behind this phenomenon. It just seems to be one of those laws of the universe. Like E=mc². England have also had a dream draw, having played the two teams – Scotland and Italy – who were expected to be sitting at the bottom of the ladder and are now key contenders for the wooden spoon.
Wales are still well and truly in it and would be equal first if it wasn’t for the penalty goal by Ireland’s Jonny Sexton that lead to the Round 1 draw in Cardiff. But it’s sudden death for Wales from here. In the 6 nations, you can draw a game, or lose a game and still end up the ultimate winner. But you can’t win overall if you draw and lose a match.
Finally, Ireland, the 2015 winners, are essentially out of contention, having drawn and then lost their first two matches. Ireland have been cursed with injuries and struggled against the power game of Wales and France. The Irish scribes are now calling them “old and weary” and they are playing for pride. Life and teams go in cycles I guess.
Players who’ve had a big impact
For mine, there are three players that have had a big impact in the opening two rounds of the tournament, but all for quite different reasons.
Billy Vunipola (England)
There are some very good No. 8s in this competition, but for carrying power and slight of hand, Billy is the player I’d most like to be working with. He can play for 80 minutes. Sure, he misses a few tackles in that time, but he carries the ball almost 20 times and that wears down the opposition. When he runs at the line, he sits down at least two defenders bracing themselves for the impact, so there are little gaps either side of this contact area. Coaches call these ‘seams’ to slip runners through. Look for England to develop these plays as the tournament continues.
George North (Wales)
George is a freak of an athlete and one of the best wingers in the world. And there was no better display of this than the try he scored against Scotland in the final stages of the Round 2 match to seal the win for Wales. When he took the pass around 50m from the tryline he didn’t look even remotely like scoring. From there, he beat 4 Scottish players and scored untouched. The significance of this try was enormous for, had Wales lost that game, like Ireland, they would have stepped out of contention. North’s run reminded me of John Kirwan in full flight and it wouldn’t surprise me if a few NFL scouts start circling.
Johnny Sexton (Ireland)
Johnny’s inclusion in this list may surprise a few, but stick with me for a moment. In short, if he plays, then Ireland usually win and if he doesn’t play, they usually lose. You can’t say that about many other players, but I reckon it’s true. Ireland were winning in the Round 2 game against France until he departed the field. Then things really fell apart. Ironically the channel that Sexton would have been organizing the defense for was the channel that France exposed and scored the winning try late in the second half. I reckon if Johnny had been on the field at the time, he would have organised the defence much better and potentially averted the score. But had that happened, there was still a strong chance France would have still won, as they had the Irish scrum under the pump and you got the feeling that a try was not a matter of if, but when.
The keys to success
The 6 Nations Championship is a very different kettle of fish to the southern hemisphere’s Rugby Championship. It’s played in the middle of the European winter where it can be very cold, the handling conditions usually aren’t good and it can be very soft under foot.
This is the reason why northern hemisphere teams play 10 man footy and are generally very good at it. It’s like Darwin’s theory of evolution. If they got to play on hard grounds all the time, they would play more like southern hemisphere teams. But they don’t. They have to play to the conditions. This means games are tighter and less tries are scored.
In this particular tournament, the keys to winning are to:
- have a super accurate goal kicker (I’m talking conversation rates of 85% plus)
- have a scrum that can dominate for the full 80 minutes, and
- play for scrum penalties.
I know it all sounds very negative and it’s not the way we like to play in Australia. But the tactics are right for the conditions and the team that executes them best is most likely to win.
The three contenders
At the moment, England France and Wales look to have all the key ingredients. They are quite similar and very closely matched. They are big powerful teams that can scrum well and have very accurate kickers. It’s therefore no surprise that these three teams are currently at the top of the heap. But there are also some subtle differences that can provide some guidance to where they all might finish.
England
Positives
- There have been few injuries to hamper their run home.
- They play the next two matches at Twickenham.
- Ireland, who they face in the next game, are crippled by injuries.
Negatives
- With three crunch matches in a row to play, they could be struggling by the final game, which is against France in Paris.
France
Positives
- Only two of their remaining three games are crunch matches, which can be very important towards the back end of the tournament.
- Their bench is very strong.
- They play a power game that will be hard to beat.
Negatives
- They are consistently inconsistent.
Wales
Positives
- They are a winning team, with a very established coaching panel and playing roster.
- Jamie Roberts and George North are almost unstoppable.
Negatives
- They have to win the three remaining games and hope England and France slip up.
My prediction
If I had to call it now, I’d go with Wales because they know how to win this Championship. There are not too many French or English players to have lifted a 6 Nations trophy. The Welsh boys have the experience.
