The Background
There are two main points here.
- It’s pretty hard to argue that South Africa and New Zealand are the best two sides in the southern hemisphere this year. We haven’t seen them up against the northern hemisphere giants, currently France and Ireland, yet but we know that’s to come. New Zealand and France, South Africa and Ireland are in the same pools as each other so some north v south clashes are inevitable. It’s possible that the quarter finals could give us the other pair of cross-hemisphere clashes. My idea is based on South Africa and New Zealand and how they’re playing.
- Kick tennis has been a thing in rugby for quite a while, but since 2019 we’ve had a big change in the laws with the introduction of 50-22 kicks. The intention was to make defensive lines easier to break because there’d be more players back to cover the kicks. I’m not sure it’s really achieving that, but it has introduced an exciting new attacking option into the game. I’m a biologist by training, part of me thinks in terms of evolution and selection pressure. A change to the laws acts to change the way teams play – we’ve seen that over the years with all kinds of law changes. My intuition is that the changes I’m going to talk about are a response to this law change.
The Traditional Role
This might all sound familiar to you, but it’s worth a read so you can see the contrast to what they’re doing now.
Both New Zealand and South Africa seem to have developed a new player role for full back. I think for different reasons but they’ve ended up in very similar places.
Traditionally, in attack, the full back inserts into back line from depth as a running threat, picking a line to exploit a gap. In defence they’re the hindmost player, covering line breaks and so forth, although in more recent defensive models that’s a bit more dynamic as the back three play a pendulum system.
- If you’re confused by the pendulum, the simplest way is to imagine an attack on the defensive left side. The left wing goes up to be the last person in the defensive line, so there’s a full width line. The full back swings left to cover the left half of the field deep. Meanwhile, the right wing drops out of the defensive line because the ball is on the far side and they cover the right half of the field deep. If the attacking side moves their attack to the right side of the defence the right wing moves forward to the end of the defensive line, the full back swings over to the right side deep and the left wing drops back to cover deep left. Obviously this gets more complex in actual play, as defenders are at the bottom of rucks and so on, but that’s the principle of it. Although cross-field kicks to the winger have been around for longer than this law change, in some ways they’ve become easier because the weak-side winger is often a bit deeper to cover the kick through, so the catch is easier.
A Side Note On Defence
If you’re observant, you’ll notice, sometimes, the 10 in some odd positions, defensively. Most typically this is out on the wing, instead of tucked in between the 9 and 12. This is not some mad defensive plan to hide a 10 who can’t tackle, which I’m sure you can all remember from days gone by.
While this may seem strange, if you combine kick tennis and the pendulum, it arises easily and rapidly. Consider a situation where the 15 has kicked and chased their kick to put the rest of the team onside. To prepare for the next kick, the 10 drops back, and takes up a defensive position. Typically that will be towards one side of the centre or the other. Sometimes you see three players deep to cover a kick to either touchline or down the middle, more often its two, but it does vary a bit.
Now imagine the person that catches the kick runs it back. If that attack goes towards the side that the 10 was on, covering the sideline for a kick, the pendulum forces them up into the defensive line in the role the fullback would normally cover. We all know kick tennis is going to end sometime. Very broadly speaking, half the time the 10 will be deep, half the time the attack will go to their side. It might never get as far out as their wing, but they’ll be out there. Typically only for a phase or two, then the line will sort itself out as the full back drops back, or more literally out, at a slow ruck and the flyhalf swops in, normal service is resumed.
While this is only a few phases in any game, maybe possibly a minute or two over the full 80, you have to think that, at the moment, New Zealand and South Africa have a tiny edge here. Whatever happens, everyone has a 10 trying to make tackles out on the wing. However, if there’s a turnover, they both have a playmaker in position, a playmaker that the rest of the team are completely comfortable playing off. The counter-attack swings instantly, and seamlessly, into attack. And it’s not like they were bad at it before.
The Adjustment
Kick tennis really messes this up. They kick deep to you. Your full back kicks back, then chases the kick to put everyone onside. With a lot of sides the pivot drops back to take the next catch and kick the ball… and so on. If someone runs the ball back when the 15 is forward and the 10 is back, there’s obviously an urgent adjustment to the pendulum… We’ve seen different teams have different approaches to that for a long time. Wales would drop Faletau back for example. If your 12 is a second playmaker, they’ll often either become a third deep defender or slip into the first receiver role if you decide to run the ball. There are a variety of choices.
However, the All Blacks and Bokkes have taken it in a new direction.
If we focus only only plays where the 9 passes the ball – Wallaby fans, you may be forgiven for forgetting that’s allowed after the first two games, the way White played – then what’s going on? After any attacking ball comes back, through the scrum half and is passed, on almost any phase, who does it go to?
There are also passes to guys in low number shirts, but that’s not relevant today. Of the rest for most teams the ball goes to the flyhalf. But for the Kiwis and the Bokkes, it’s split, about as often it’s a pass to the guy wearing 15 as a pivot/playmaker.
In the case of the All Blacks that comes from playing Beauden Barrett, former World Player Of The Year and RWC winner at 10 in the 15 jersey. If you have the luxury of two genuinely world class pivots in your team, making a last second decision about which one to use so you can confuse the opposition is just smart.
In the case of South Africa, until this year, Pollard has been, and probably will be when fit again, their first choice fly half. He is a great kicker from hand and the tee. (Foley stans, are you listening?) His passing game from a set piece is perfectly solid too. However, he’s perhaps less flexible, less able to read the situation and adapt. Up charges Le Roux from 15 and suddenly there’s a much more creative playmaker. With Libbok and Willemse he’s provided an older, more mature head for this pair who have 4 and 27 caps respectively, but in Willemse’s case they’re in almost all the back positions other than 10. Whoever is at 10, the appearance of Le Roux near the breakdown throws confusion into the defence, just like the appearance of Barrett.
The reasons why might be different but the effects are remarkably similar. Two playmakers, defences uncertain and the potential for gaps or weak shoulders to exploit. And the two best sides in the Southern Hemisphere. Coincidence? Possibly. But still an interesting new tactic.
Will Other Teams Change?
I don’t think we’ll necessarily see everyone do this, certainly not quickly. Le Roux and Beaudy are not players it’s easy to duplicate. How many genuine, test quality 10’s are also able to start as test quality 15’s like Barrett? How many test quality 15’s have the playmaker abilities to do what Le Roux does? Will France, who are going to (https://www.eurosport.co.uk/rugby/champions-cup/2022-2023/toulouse-will-let-antoine-dupont-miss-club-season-as-scrum-half-targets-france-sevens-spot-at-paris-_sto9670985/story.shtml) next year, shift from le petit général to playing off 10, and playing off 10 and 15? You can argue that, with Jaminet, they already have a non-traditional 15 in other ways, so I’m going to guess they’re going to look for something different.
But Ireland are going to lose Sexton and his replacements are lacklustre. Splitting them out across two players like South Africa have managed might work for them. Wales are going to be rebuilding from a lot of youth, spreading the responsibility might help them. They have a young 12 who is a second playmaker, but they have talented 15’s coming through as well, so splitting three ways is an option for them. And having having more or less interchangeable 10’s and 15’s might make coping with the transition out of kick tennis, something we’re seeing more and more often in some games, easier? If the World Cup goes poorly for England, they’ll look to rebuild after it, we could see a shift of the old guard – Farrell out, Smith in – and adding an extra playmaker at 15, as well as a crash ball 12 might help create the nucleus of a team for them. Scotland will be running out a new 15 in the World Cup, and potentially a new 10 after it – will Russell make 2027? So they could adapt to this new style?
Final Thoughts
Tweaking laws in rugby rarely produces the effect that World Rugby think it will. Last week I posted a piece asking Who Might Win The Rugby World Cup?. While I said France v New Zealand was my likeliest final, New Zealand v South Africa is certainly a strong possibility. If that is the final and they both play their preferred 10 and 15, how long does it take before we see every side in the world trying to adopt some variant of the same structure? How long did it take for variations on the Bokke’s ‘kick early’ strategy to spread around the world after 2019? Not every side adopted it, but it did become pretty common. If either of them win the World Cup using it, I would imagine we’ll see a lot of sides trying to copy it.
