In real estate parlance, the Reds are definitely a unique fixer-upper opportunity. Perhaps the for sale advertisement could read, “with a bit of TLC and vision the astute investor could restore this unloved gem from its current state of disrepair and return it to the halcyon days of a by-gone era.”
This is the challenge facing new coach Ewen McKenzie and his staff.
As with all properties, the foundations are of the utmost importance and it is these foundations that have been so badly eroded over the last five years with a procession (or death march) of coaches and key players departing the scene.
Sadly for 2010 season, the Reds suffered more structural damage with key players Berrick Barnes and Madness McMeniman (sob!) legging it and the injury forced retirement of one-year-wonder, Mark McLinden. This leaves the Reds’ house looking like it may well blow away in the first storm of the season.
That first storm is due to arrive in Brisbane in the shape of the Tahs on February 13th, and this game will show much about how the rest of the season will pan out for the Red.
Recruitment over the off-season has failed to cover these losses however the signing of Will Chambers from the Storm is a cause for some optimism. The only other new player of note is open-side flanker Lei Tomiki.
As good a player as Tomiki may yet turn out to be, he will not be able to fill the void left by Madness and the Reds look to be short a back rower how can cover both Lock and no.6.
What the Reds do have in abundance however is a bevy of young talent. End of year revelations Richard Kingi and Luke Morahan, as well as highly thought of Jake Schatz, Aidan Toua and Dominic Shipperley, are all reasons to be cheerful.
The downside for the Reds is the number of players in the professional squad who have yet to show the improvement you would expect. In 2009 plenty of players got opportunities to show their credentials but many of them looked a few rungs below what was required.
With plenty of players off contract for the Reds at the end of the 2010 season, and McKenzie’s stated intention to give the younger blokes a go, another post-season clean out is on the cards should some better form not be shown by the established players.
The Reds have no shortage of talent in their backline however the difference to last year is they finally look as though they may have some depth also. You only have to look at the half-backs in Sanchez Genia and Kingi to see the Reds have some real quality which is yet to show its full potential.
While the loss of Barnes is a blow, Quade Cooper’s new-found maturity (on field at least) suggests this hole may be covered. With Anthony Faingaa, Morgs and Chambers all legitimate centre options, the Reds look as like they could finally have some size in mid-field which was sorely lacking last season. The progress of Ben Tapuia, who made a few decent cameos last season may also add to this mix.
Back up fly-half Ben Lucas will need to strut his stuff in the pre-season trials if he is to see much game time this season. Lucas has been hardly done by in recent years and the experiment in 2009 of him playing at half-back seems wasted with the rise of Kingi.
It’s a shame the game isn’t won by outside backs as this is where the Reds are the strongest. The three stand-outs are Diggers, Peter Hynes and Morahan. With Hynes likely to get first crack at the vacant full-back jersery, Morahan and Diggers will no doubt be first choice burners. These guys will have to perform as waiting in the wings are out-and-out pacemen, Brando Va’aulu, Blair Connor, Rodney Davies, Toua and Shipperley.
The talk out of Ballymore is the backs will try and keep to the up-temp style of years previous, and it looks as though this year they may have the nous to match the enthusiasm and produce the results that were so far and few between last season.
All the backline talent in the world won’t win games if the piggies aren’t able to get them enough decent ball. Last season the Reds’ forwards mixed some very good, against the Sharks and Blues, with some very, very bad, against the Lions and the Force.
For his sins Sean Hardman goes around again and is backed by Saia Faingaa and James Hanson at hooker. It was noticeable last year that Saia had little impact when he got his chances and with Hardy a year older, he will be called upon to shoulder more of the burden. This opens the door for Hanson who has been around the Reds’ set-up for a few years and will be hardened after spending the end of last season playing NPC.
The shining light of the forwards are without doubt the props. Last year’s rookie of the season, Lauire Weeks, will be looking to build on his reputation and his partner and fellow overachiever Ben Daley also faces the challenge of backing up and proving last year wasn’t an aberration. After a few injury interrupted seasons, forgotten Wallaby Spuddie Holmes faces a make-or-break year as does Dayna Edwards who started 2009 in decent form but faded badly as the season wore on.
The pressure will be on both of these players to produce as circling are a couple of up-and-comers in the shape of Jack Kennedy and Academy fatty, James Slipper.
The second row stocks look pretty thin this year. Van Humphries and Big Kev are a good combination to start with but after that it drops away dramatically. Adam Byrne seemed to spend more time in the sin-bin than on the field last year and Rob Simmons is another who needs to repay the faith shown in him by the Reds thus far or risk being moved on.
Much the same as the props, there is also a of a log-jam of talent when it comes to openside-flankers. With two seasoned open-sides Daniel Braid and Tomiki, the Reds also have pups Andrew Shaw and Eddie Quirk to call on. This is a positive for the Reds who were well and truly dusted at the breakdown on more than one occasion last year. No doubt Braid will get first crack at the no. 7 jersey but it will be interesting to see if McKenzie opts to back him up with the youth or go for the Phil Mooney option of Tomiki.
Blind-side flanker is a little more convoluted due to the problems of finding a number 8 due to Leroy Houston’s absence. Scott Higginbotham started last season well but like most first year players, struggled to keep up with the week to week grind. If injury prone Ezra Taylor stays fit then the Reds may have a decent option but as both of these players will have to adjust to the back of the scrum, it all looks a bit un-balanced.
Tasi Luafutu, or more correctly, Poutasi Vaiofiso Tuasivi Luafutu, shapes as someone who could be the answer to balancing this equation. Luafutu has not made the most of his opportunities thus far however he is looking physically up to the challenge so if he can make a go of it, it will cover a huge hole for the Reds.
Jake Schatz is one who could fill the number 8 void but one suspects it would be too big an ask to get a 20 year-old to go through a whole season of top-class rugby. You only have to think back to how the Force’s David Pocock struggled to make it through his first few seasons to confirm this.
The Reds have been rebuilding for about 8 years now, logic suggest once they are done the finished product will be a cracker, I mean, it only took seven years to build the new Parliament House for fuck’s sake!!
Despite the new regime at Ballymore it would be too much to expect that construction will be completed this season.
The forward pack, while looking like an improvement on last year’s model, still lacks balance and there are too many un-answered questions in terms of player’s ability to make the step-up
The backs look closer to the finished product but the real challenge for the Reds this year will be to ward off the raiders from Melbourne and make sure they are not once again some other franchises bitch.
The first three games of the season will tell much about how the season will pan out. If the Reds can win 2 out of the first 3 games then they might just have the momentum to sneak a few results on the road. Should they not win any of their first three games, then the season is over, and after round three that is a daunting prospect.
There is no doubt the Reds will huff and puff this season, but it is unlikely they will be able to blow the top team’s houses down.
Cote says: Reds to finish 8th
