In a world where anything was possible, I imagine this week’s write up would start with a photo montage set to those glorious synth’s from Europe’s Final Countdown. It’s been a long time coming, but the final is here. It’s last man standing for the Grand Final Super Rugby tipping preview.
Two weeks ago, I labelled the move reminiscent of Steven Bradbury when he took gold in Salt Lake City in 2002. This week the metaphor is all but complete with our top tipper Braveheart81 sitting all alone on the top of the table while our long time leader The Rhumdoggs is scrambling to pick themselves up from their last minute stumble. The fat lady hasn’t sung yet though, there’s one tip to go.
Waratahs vs Crusaders
I’ll try and pull out all the stops for this one to let you know the ins and outs between these two teams so your tip this weekend is as educated as it can be.
History
Due to the nature of the conference system, this will be the first time these two teams meet this year. In previous years though the results have been pretty one sided. I tried to analyse them to find some sort of historical glimmer of hope for the Australians but it was not to be. So sit down and brace yourself.
The teams have met 20 times in the professional era (since 1996) and the Waratahs are 4 wins and 16 losses; so a win rate of just 20%. Pull that back to home and away and the result is a bit better for this weekend. The Tahs have only won 1 from 12 away (8%) but have won 3 from 8 at home (38%). That is as good as it gets though. The last time the Waratahs beat the Crusaders was way back in Round 1 of 2004. 10 years ago. The following year, in 2005 the Tahs were beaten in the Grand Final by the Cantabrians and they haven’t beaten them since including another Grand Final in 2008. Ouch.
In terms of finals experience it’s just as stark. The Crusaders have won 7 of 18 Championships and have been runners up 3 times. The Waratahs have been twice the Bridesmaid but never the Bride.
One last point when looking at the history is that of the 18 Super Rugby Grand Finals of the professional era, only 4 have been won away from home. On three of those occasions (Crusaders twice & Bulls once) the away side was from the same country as the other finalist and only once has a team one an away final outside of their own country. Sadly for the Waratahs, that team was the Crusaders beating the Brumbies in Canberra in 2000.
Current Form
Most would agree that 2014 has been one of, if not, the best years for the Waratahs so far. They topped the Australian Conference and had won the Minor Premiership with a round to spare. They are number 1 for most wins (12), points scored (481) and tries scored (55). They are lowest for points conceded (272) and second lowest for tries conceded (24) with only the Sharks conceding less (22).
The Crusaders have had arguably an average year by their own lofty standards but predictably have timed their run to perfection and appear to be hitting peak form in the last game of the year. They topped the New Zealand Conference, are second for most wins (11) and points scored (445) but seventh for tries scored (41). They are third lowest for points conceded (322) but seventh lowest for tries conceded (36).
Looking at how the season has panned out for the two gives perhaps a better picture of how each team is tracking. The Tahs started strongly with two wins straight up before getting the yips. They alternated between wins and losses for the next 8 rounds and as many speculated at the time their loss to the Blues in Auckland was the turning point. From there the Waratahs haven’t dropped a game and are on an 8 game winning streak.
The Crusaders started slowly, as they do, waiting until Round 4 to notch up their first win. The season from that point has been runs of 2-3 wins interspersed with the odd loss. Mid season though, the Saders were on a five game winning streak when they hosted the Sharks in Round 14 and lost. They suffered another loss in Round 17 to the then hot Hurricanes and had to again try and find their rhythm for the run to the play offs.
The Big Game
History dictates that the Crusaders will win this by half time but the form this season tells me that this is the Waratahs to lose. In the tipping, it seems that the majority of the punters (73%) are tipping the home side and generally speaking most betting sites agree. I am tending to lean towards this being the Tahs to lose. They have shown time and time again that they truly are a step above the rest of the competition this season.
Their sheer size and aggressiveness at the break down is ensuring clean ball for their backs to continue their sublime form. I don’t want to take a single thing away from the Crusaders, who are rightfully Grand Finalists also, but I think if they were to win it will be largely because the Waratahs haven’t played to the standard they have displayed all year. The tip? Waratahs to win.
