This is the Super Rugby Ultimate Preview, your one-stop shop for everything you need to know for those all-important tips and fantasy transfers. As always the Brown Hornet is on board, providing his well thought-out tips for each fixture.
Friday 29th April
Highlanders v. Blues @ Carisbrook Stadium, Dunedin 5:35pm AEST
Highlanders: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Kade Poki, 13 Kendrick Lynn, 12 Ben Smith, 11 Siale Piutau, 10 Tony Brown, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Nasi Manu, 7 Alando Soakai, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Josh Bekhuis, 4 Jarrad Hoeata, 3 Chris King, 2 Jason Rutledge, 1 Jamie Mackintosh. Reserves: 16 Mo Schwalger, 17 David Te Moana, 18 Tom Donnelly, 19 Nick Crosswell, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Matt Saunders, 22 James Paterson.
IN: Poki, Cowan, Soakai, Thomson, Rutledge
OUT: Paterson, Smith, Hardie, Donnelly, Boys, Romans, Veainu, Schwalger
All the big names return from injury, with the exception of Treeby. All Black Donnelly is pushed to the bench by the impressive Hoeata.
Blues: 15 Isaia Toeava, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Luke McAlister, 11 Rene Ranger, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Luke Braid, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Anthony Boric, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu (c), 1 Tevita Mailau. Reserves: 16 Tom McCartney, 17 Pauliasi Manu, 18 James King, 19 Chris Lowrey, 20 Toby Morland, 21 Benson Stanley, 22 Lachie Munro.
IN: McAlister, Mailau, Manu, King
OUT: Stanley, Woodcock
Tony Woodcock is out with injury, while Benson Stanley goes out for Luke McAlister.
Recent History: Highlanders 1 – 4 Blues. The Blues have been fairly dominant and won the last meeting 19–15 at Carisbrook in 2010. The Highlanders’ last win was back in 2006.
Last 5: Blues WWxWW, Highlanders xWWWW
Hornet’s Tip: One of the games of the round this one. After their magnificent performance against the Cru last week, the Highlanders will be buzzing and rightly so. They have combined their no-guts-no-glory forward play with some real spark in the backs and are probably playing the best footy in the competition right now. Hats off to Jamie Joseph on that one. The Blues are none too shabby either and their recent form is excellent. This is shaping up to be a terrific game, with great matc-ups all over the park. It’ll be close I reckon, but I’m tipping the Highlanders by 5.
Odds: Highlanders $2.21, Blues $1.68
Saturday 30th April
Cheetahs v. Brumbies @ Vodacom Park, Bloemfontein 3:10am AEST
Cheetahs: 15. Riaan Viljoen, 14. Philip Burger 13. Robert Ebersohn, 12. Corné Uys, 11. Riaan Smit, 10. Sias Ebersohn, 9. Sarel Pretorius, 8. Ashley Johnson, 7. Davon Raubenheimer, 6. Heinrich Brüssow, 5. Wilhelm Steenkamp, 4. Francois Uys, 3. WP Nel, 2. Adriaan Strauss (c), 1. Coenie Oosthuizen. Reserves: 16. Ryno Barnes, 17. Lourens Adriaanse, 18. Martin Muller, 19. Frans Viljoen, 20. Tewis de Bruyn, 21. Naas Olivier, 22. Hennie Daniller.
IN: C. Uys, Smit, Brussow, Strauss, Viljoen, Daniller
OUT: Geel, Benjamin, Floors, Barnes, Karemaker
A few big names returning for the Cheetahs, with Andries Strauss and Heinrich Brüssow coming back into the XV.
Brumbies: 15. Pat McCabe, 14. Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13. Andrew Smith, 12. Matt Giteau (c), 11. Francis Fainifo, 10. Christian Lealiifano, 9 Patrick Phibbs, 8. Colby Faingaa, 7. Michael Hooper, 6. Mitchell Chapman, 5. Mark Chisholm, 4. Peter Kimlin, 3. Dan Palmer, 2. Stephen Moore, 1. Ben Alexander. Reserves: 16. Huia Edmonds, 17. Jono Owen, 18. Ben Hand, 19. Julian Salvi, 20. Josh Valentine, 21. Tyrone Smith, 22. Robbie Coleman.
IN: Ashley-Cooper, Phibbs, Faingaa, Chapman, Moore, Edmonds, Owen, Coleman
OUT: Toomua, Valentine, Vaea, Hand, Hegarty, Levi, Ma’afu
Plenty of changes for the Brumbies this week, with Toomua and Vaea both out with injury. On the bright side we see the return of Chapman, Moore and Edmonds to bolster the forward pack. The other major change is Matt Giteau going to inside centre, and Christian Lealiifano taking the No. 10 jersey.
Recent History: Cheetahs 1 – 4 Brumbies. The Brumbies have made light work of the Cheetahs recently, winning last year’s match 61–15 at home. The Cheetahs’ solitary win came in 2007.
Last 5: Cheetahs LLLLx, Brumbies LLWLx
Hornet’s Tip: A game between two teams that have been pretty ordinary this season The Cheetahs lost a close one last start and their defence looked decidedly flimsy. The pack looks pretty useful, especially the front row, but they’ll need more than that. The Brumbies are coming off a bye and a long trip to the Republic. On the positive side, they know who will be coaching them next year and a few blokes will want to lay down a marker. I reckon they’ve got a leg up in this one and I’m tipping them to win by 8.
Odds: Cheetahs $1.78, Brumbies $2.06
Hurricanes v. Reds @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington 5:35pm AEST
Hurricanes: 15. Andre Taylor, 14. Alapati Leiua, 13. Jayden Hayward, 12. Charlie Ngatai, 11. Hosea Gear, 10. Aaron Cruden, 9. Chris Eaton, 8. Victor Vito, 7. Jack Lam, 6. Faifili Levave, 5. James Broadhurst, 4. Jason Eaton, 3. Neemia Tialata, 2. Andrew Hore (c), 1. John Schwalger. Reserves: 16. Dane Coles, 17. Anthony Perenise, 18. Jeremy Thrush, 19. Mark Reddish, 20. Tyson Keats, 21. Julian Savea, 22. Beauden Barrett.
IN: Taylor, Ngatai, Cruden, C Eaton, Levave, J Eaton, Perenise, Reddish, Savea
OUT: Jane, Nonu, Kirkpatrick, Keats, Lilo, Thrush, Bent
The Canes ring the changes, with the most important being the injury-forced losses of Jane and Nonu.
Reds: 15. Ben Lucas, 14. Luke Morahan, 13. Will Chambers, 12. Mike Harris, 11. Dom Shipperley, 10. Quade Cooper, 9. Will Genia; 8. Scott Higginbotham, 7. Beau Robinson, 6. Adam Wallace-Harrison, 5. James Horwill (c), 4. Van Humphries, 3. Guy Shepherdson, 2. James Hanson, 1. Greg Holmes. Res: 16. Saia Faingaa, 17. Albert Anae, 18. Rob Simmons, 19. Radike Samo, 20. Liam Gill, 21. Anthony Faingaa, 22. Kimani Sitauti.
IN: Chambers, Shipperley, Wallace-Harrison, Humphries, Hanson, Holmes, Anae, Sitauti
OUT: A Faingaa, Ioane, Samo, Simmons, S Faingaa, Daley, Houston
Injuries to Ioane and Daley have forced a couple of changes, and in addition to that Link has sent the Faingaas, Samo and Simmons to the bench.
Recent History: Hurricanes 4 – 1 Reds. The Hurricanes have won the last two matches and took the honours 44–21 at home in Round 13 last year.
Last 5: Hurricanes LLLWL, Reds WWWWW
Hornet’s Tip: The Hurricanes came away from their trip to the Republic with a split record, beating the Cheetahs in a thriller and getting spanked by the Sharks. They’ve lost some quality backs this week too and will have their key strengths reduced. The Reds will be a bit battle-wounded after their stoush with the Tahs last weekend and their depth will be tested. With that said, their three most influential players, Horwill, Genia and Cooper, will all be out there. This will give them the edge I think and I’m tipping them by 7.
Odds: Hurricanes $2.42, Reds $1.58
Waratahs v. Rebels @ Sydney Football Stadium, 7:40pm AEST
Waratahs: 15. Kurtley Beale, 14. Lachie Turner, 13. Ryan Cross, 12. Tom Carter, 11. Sosene Anesi, 10. Berrick Barnes, 9. Luke Burgess, 8. Ben Mowen, 7. Pat McCutcheon, 6. Dave Dennis, 5. Sitaleki Timani, 4. Dean Mumm, 3. Sekope Kepu, 2. Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1. Benn Robinson. Reserves: 16. John Ulugia, 17. Al Baxter, 18. Kane Douglas, 19. Chris Alcock, 20. Brendan McKibbin, 21. Daniel Halangahu, 22. Tom Kingston.
IN: Anesi, Barnes, McCutcheon, Dennis, Alcock
OUT: Kingston, Mitchell, Palu, Waugh
The Tahs lose Waugh and Palu to injury. Again. In comes the usual brigade of fill-ins: McCutcheon, Alcock, Dennis. On the bright side Barnes is back in the fold, moving Beale to fullback.
Rebels: 15 Julian Huxley, 14 Lachlan Mitchell, 13 Mark Gerrard, 12 Stirling Mortlock (c), 11 Peter Betham, 10 James Hilgendorf, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Gareth Delve (vc), 7 Michael Lipman, 6 Jarrod Saffy, 5 Alister Campbell, 4 Hugh Pyle, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Rodney Blake. Reserves: 16 Heath Tessman, 17 Laurie Weeks, 18 Hoani MacDonald, 19 Tim Davidson, 20 Richard Kingi, 21 Cooper Vuna, 22 Danny Cipriani.
IN: Gerrard, Betham, Hilgendorf
OUT: Kingi, Vuna, Cipriani, Rooney
The Rebels take the bold step of dropping three of their frontline backs — Cipriani, Kingi and Vuna, who seem to have paid the price for defensive inaccuracy. Mark Gerrard returns to the XV, as well as Betham and Hilgendorf.
Recent History: Waratahs 1 – 0 Rebels. I can remember Round 1 like it was yesterday. We seemed so innocent back then, blindly believing the Tahs would sweep all before them and win the title. Ahh, sweet memories…
Last 5: Waratahs WWWLL, Rebels WWxLL
Hornet’s Tip: A tough one to pick, this. The Tahs seem to be lurching along in first gear while towing a ten tonne lead weight behind them. This is not the same imposing team we saw in the early rounds. They’ve also got some injury concerns, especially out wide. The Rebels seem to have dropped off in recent weeks, especially in defence, which has at times been deplorable. That’s definitely not a Macqueen trademark. The question is whether the Tahs have the firepower to do anything about it. I’m tipping that they don’t, but will get their noses in front to win this game by 5.
Odds: Waratahs $1.24, Rebels $4.15
Force v. Crusaders @ nib Stadium, Perth 10:05pm AEST
Force: 15. Cameron Shepherd, 14. Nick Cummins, 13. Pat Dellit, 12. James O’Connor, 11. David Smith, 10. Willie Ripia, 9. Brett Sheehan, 8. Ben McCalman, 7. David Pocock, 6. Richard Brown, 5. Nathan Sharpe (c), 4. Sam Wykes, 3. Matt Dunning, 2. Nathan Charles, 1. Pek Cowan, Reserves: 16. Ben Whittaker, 17. Kieran Longbottom, 18. Matt Hodgson, 19. Tevita Metuisela, 20. James Stannard, 21. Rory Sidey , 22. Alfie Mafi.
IN: Smith, Pocock, Charles, Hodgson, Stannard
OUT: Sidey, Jenkins, Whittaker, Bartholomeusz, Swanepoel, Hockings
Two crucial Davids are back for the Force XV: Pocock and Smith. Matt Hodgson and James Stannard return from injury to the bench.
Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Matt Berquist, 9 Kahn Fotuali’i, 8 Richie McCaw, 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Chris Jack, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett. Reserves: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Owen Franks, 18 Joe Wheeler, 19 Jonathan Poff, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Tu Umaga-Marshall, 22. Adam Whitelock.
IN: Maitland, Williams, Fotuali’i, McCaw, Romano, Flynn, B. Franks, Heinz, Umaga-Marshall
OUT: Marshall, A. Whitelock, Ellis, Wheeler, Thorn, McDonald, O. Franks
A few big names are back for the Crusaders, with McCaw, Maitland, Flynn and SBW coming into to the XV. These gains are tempered by the injury-forced losses of Ellis and Thorn.
Recent History: Force 1 – Crusaders 2. If you exclude the 53–0 drubbing dished out by the Crusaders in 2007, these two sides have been near inseparable: 23–23 in both 2006 and 2009, 29–24 to the Crusaders in 2008 and 24–16 to the Force last year.
Last 5: Force LLLWW, Crusaders WxWWL
Hornet’s Tip: Last week the Force bounced back with a gusty win against a tired looking Bulls outfit. It was predictably dour and at times brutal, but gripping nonetheless. The test is stepped up a few notches against a Crusaders team who will be stung by that loss last week. They’ve lost a few key players but still have some real quality across the park. These games have traditionally been pretty close encounters, but I think the Cru will have just a little too much class and they’ll win by 5.
Odds: Force $2.75, Crusaders $1.46
Sunday 1st May
Bulls v. Chiefs @ Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria 1:05am AEST
Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Francois Hougaard, 13 Stephan Dippenaar, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Gary Botha, 1 Dean Greyling. Reserves: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Rossouw de Klerk, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Danie Russouw, 20 Francois Brummer, 21 Gerhard van den Heever, 22 Derick Kuün
IN: G Botha, van den Heever
OUT: Ralepelle, van der Westhuyzen
A hooker swap is the only major change to the lineup this week.
Chiefs: 15. Mils Muliaina (c), 14. Lelia Masaga, 13. Richard Kahui, 12. Dwayne Sweeney, 11. Save Tokula, 10. Stephen Donald, 9. Brendon Leonard, 8. Fritz Lee, 7. Scott Waldrom, 6. Liam Messam, 5. Craig Clarke, 4. Romana Graham, 3. Ben Afeaki, 2. Aled de Malmanche, 1. Toby Smith. Reserves: 16. Hika Elliot, 17. Sona Taumalolo, 18. Isaac Ross, 19. Sam Cane, 20. Taniwha Kerr-Barlow, 21. Tim Nanai-Williams, 22. Jackson Willison
IN: Tokula, Taumalolo, Ross, Willison
OUT: Sivivatu, White, Triggs
Only one change to the starting fifteen for the Chiefs, and it is the loss of Sivi with a hamstring injury.
Recent History: Bulls 4 – 1 Chiefs. The Bulls have been all over the Chiefs, taking the last three games including the 2009 final. Last year they won 33–19 away. This is a different Bulls side, though.
Last 5: Bulls WWLLL, Chiefs LLxLW
Hornet’s Tip: The Bulls are back at fortress Loftus and probably not a minute too soon from their point of view. They had a pretty unsuccessful trip and looked tired, slow and out of ideas at times. Fortunately, their game plan with that big pack and Steyn’s boot is well suited to their opposition this weekend. The Chiefs have been up and down as usual and are going to have their hands full with the forward power (albeit not as strong as they used to be) of the Bulls and the altitude. This is a battle of a couple of teams not really travelling that well. I’m tipping the Bulls — but only just, by 4.
Odds: Bulls $1.50, Chiefs $2.63
Stormers v. Sharks @ Newlands, Cape Town 3:10am AEST
Stormers: 15. Conrad Jantjes, 14. Gio Aplon, 13. Jaque Fourie, 12. Jean De Villiers, 11. Bryan Habana, 10. Peter Grant, 9. Dewaldt Duvenage, 8. Duane Vermeulen, 7. Francois Louw, 6. Schalk Burger (c), 5. Andries Bekker, 4. Rynhardt Elstadt, 3. CJ van der Linde, 2. Deon Fourie, 1. Wicus Blaauw. Reserves: 16. Ethienne Reynecke, 17. Brok Harris, 18. De Kock Steenkamp, 19. Nick Koster, 20. Ricky Januarie, 21. Lionel Cronje, 22 . Juan de Jongh.
IN: Habana, De Villiers, Grant, Elstadt
OUT: Poolma, de Jongh, Sadie, van Aswegen, van Zyl
Bryan Habana and Jean De Villiers are back for the Stormers, and with Peter Grant back at pivot expect an improved backline display.
Sharks: 15. Louis Ludik, 14. Odwa Ndungane, 13. Stefan Terblanche, 12. Meyer Bosman, 11. JP Pietersen, 10. Patrick Lambie, 9. Charl McLeod, 8. Ryan Kankowski, 7. Willem Alberts, 6. Keegan Daniel, 5. Ross Skeate, 4. Steven Sykes, 3. Jannie du Plessis, 2. John Smit (c), 1. Tendai Mtawarira . Reserves: 16. Bismarck du Plessis, 17. Eugene van Staden, 18. Alistair Hargreaves, 19. Jean Deysel, 20. Conrad Hoffmann, 21. Adrian Jacobs, 22. Lwazi Mvovo.
IN: Ndungane, Daniel, J du Plessis, B du Plessis, Hargreaves, Deysel
OUT: Mvovo, Botes, van Staden, Burden, Mostert
A few small changes for the Sharks, with Daniel and Jannie du Plessis returning to the starting lineup. Bismarck comes back onto the bench.
Recent History: Stormers 1 – 4 Sharks. The Stormers broke a five game losing streak against the Sharks with a 16-6 win in the Shark Tank in Round 7.
Last 5: Stormers WWLWx, Sharks LLWxW
Hornet’s Tip: Another intriguing battle looms in this Saffer derby. The Stormers haven’t lost many this year and have mostly ground other teams into the dust. No surprise then that they sit atop the South African conference. They have an intriguing battle ahead of them with a Sharks team that boasts the kind of pack that could worry them. There is plenty of size, speed and aggression from the men from Durban and they have some useful pace out wide. I think this will be close and reckon the Sharks might nick it by 5.
Odds: Stormers $1.54, Sharks $2.51
The Bet: The Tahs got so close, but just couldn’t get across the line in the end, leaving us in the red with a $2 loss. So we are going back to basics this week, with a couple of sure-fire winners from the Republic. The Cheetahs have been playing good rugby devoid of all luck, but now have key players back and should be too good for the Brumbies this weekend. The Stormers also have big names returning, and (with all due respect to the Hornet’s judgement) I think they’ll beat the Sharks at home after conquering them away a month ago. So:
Take a multi of the Cheetahs into the Stormers at $2.75 with Centrebet.
Whom are you tipping?
