Both the Western Force and Melbourne Rebels have spent most of the year in a parallel universe, with the uncertainty of the ARU’s guillotine hanging over their heads and both have had significant injury tolls. For what it is worth, personally I don’t think either team should be cut. No matter which team is cut the ARU will be cutting off a non-traditional development pathway at the knees and alienating one supporter base, which Australian Rugby can ill afford. (That is enough off-field politics, let’s move to on-field).
Form
Neither team has lost for 34 days … oh that’s right due to the test window neither team has played for 34 days either.
The Western Force has had 4 wins during the season – 2 wins v Queensland Reds, 1 v Kings and a very gritty away win against the Jaguares. In their nine losses the Force have only been able to secure one losing bonus point and are currently sitting 3rd on the Australian conference with a points differential of negative 129.
Any joy the Melbourne Rebels have had this season has actually occurred within a period of 7 days in April. This period started with a tight 19-17 home victory over the Brumbies and ended in what could best be described as a 9 all draw for the purists. The Rebels are last on the Australian conference and only one point ahead of the Sunwolves on the overall ladder.
In 12 matches head to head the Force has won 3 matches and the Rebels have won 9. Although only once has the margin been more than 7 points and that was a Force victory by 25 points, which is the Force’s only win at home against the Rebels.
Players to Watch
Richard Hardwick
The Namibian-born Western Australian junior recently made his debut for the Wallabies. He is an aggressive and tenacious flanker and expect him to grow in confidence following his Wallabies experience.
Alex Newsome
The New South Wales Country Eagles NRC graduate has taken his opportunity with the Western Force with both hands. The talented young winger has played in 11 of the Force’s 13 games, including 9 starts and is the Force’s leading try scorer for the season with 4 tries.
Chance Peni
Chance Peni is another Western Australian junior. Peni returned to Perth after stints in Rugby League lower grades with Newcastle Knights and Wests Tigers and a Rugby League test for the Cook Islands. Peni started off the year with a bang scoring 3 tries in his 6 matches before a groin injury resulted in a lengthy layoff. He is fast and strong and will be someone the Rebels defense will have to watch closely. (Curtis Rona is another WA junior returning from Rugby League to keep an eye on).
Marika Koroibete
Speaking of players being recruited from Rugby League the Fijian Flyer Marika Koroibete has improved out of sight since the beginning of the season. Like Newsome for the Force, Koroibete is the leading try scorer for the Rebels with four tries. Two of those tries came against the Crusaders in round 14. The Force will not want to give Koroibete any space because he will punish them with his speed.
Reece Hodge
Reece Hodge has had an unbelievable first two years in professional rugby. He has just returned from the Wallabies squad where he scored a long range try against Italy. Hodge can play in numerous positions and this week has been named at inside centre. Hodge needs just 11 points to notch up 100 points for the season and currently sits 10th for most points scored this season. Hodge is also currently sitting at 4th on the Rebels all time point scorers list.
Amanaki Mafi
Given Mafi has been a “serial offender” in my players to watch during the season I thought long and hard about leaving him out this week. However, the Japanese international has been such a stand out for the Rebels that I had to include him. If you could when handing out the player of the year award for the Rebels you would give Mafi first, second and third. Mafi has made 170 carries (3rd in the competition), 20 offloads (equal 9th in the competition) and 129 tackles (equal 7th in the competition)
Prediction
The Western Force has shown more consistency, both across the season and within matches. The Force has won 2 of their last 4 matches.
If the match is close when the whips are cracking the Force has significantly more experience on the bench than the Rebels with the likes of Heath Tessman, Tetera Faulkner, Ian Prior and Jono Lance.
So despite the fact that the Rebels will fancy their chances after the test break and have a 9-3 win loss record against the Force I predict …
Western Force by 7 points
Force v Rebels at nib Stadium, Perth
Date Friday 7 July 2017
Time 7:55pm AWST, 9:55pm AEST
Referee: Will Houston
Assistant Referees: Damon Murphy & Graham Cooper
TMO: Damien Mitchelmore
Western Force
1 Pek Cowan, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 4 Matt Philip, 5 Adam Coleman (C), 6 Ross Haylett-Petty, 7 Richard Hardwick, 8 Isi Naisarani, 9 Michael Ruru, 10 Peter Grant, 11 Alex Newsome, 12 Bill Meakes, 13 Curtis Rona, 14 Chance Peni, 15 Dane Haylett-Petty Reserves: 16 Heath Tessmann, 17 Francois van Wyk, 18 Tetera Faulkner, 19 Lewis Carmichael, 20 Brynard Stander, 21 Ian Prior, 22 Jono Lance, 23 James Verity-Amm
Melbourne Rebels
1 Toby Smith, 2 James Hanson, 3 Laurie Weeks, 4 Murray Douglas, 5 Steve Cummins, 6 Lopeti Timani, 7 Colby Fainga’a, 8 Amanaki Mafi, 9 Nic Stirzaker (C), 10 Jackson Garden-Bachop, 11 Marika Koroibete, 12 Reece Hodge, 13 Mitch Inman, 14 Tom English, 15 Jonah Placid Reserves: 16 Jordan Uelese, 17 Cruze Ah Nau, 18 Fereti Sa’aga, 19 Culum Retallick, 20 Hugh Sinclair, 21 Ben Meehan, 22 Sione Tuipulotu, 23 Jack Maddocks
* Data used courtesy of Opta Sports
