Will the Highlanders chalk up two on the trot, or can the Rebels win against all the odds?
Groundhog day. This is what it feels like as a Rebels fan. Horrible injury list, check. Almost pulling off an unlikely victory in the previous round – check. Wondering how to get that complete 80 min performance on the field – check.
Yes, this is how it’s played out for the Rebels over the last few weeks. Play a wonderful 60 – 70 min of Rugby, only to run out of puff, and let victory slip through their fingers. Sure, they have been hit hard with key injuries, and have a novelty anvil called “SANZAAR” hanging over their head, ready to drop at any minute. Yes, things are tough. Still, they get back up again, dust themselves off, and get ready for the next week. That’s some tough resilience these Rebels possess.
No no Punxsutawney Phil, we don’t want to see you this week.
Our friends over the dutch don’t seem to have the same problems. Sure they have a decent casualty ward, but they seem to fill their spare places with quality talent. They have arguably the best fullback in the game, and one of the best halfbacks. Most importantly, they know how to last the full 80 min and win when under great pressure. Isn’t that right, Brumbies?
The Form
Last Round:
- Rebels 25 – Waratahs 32
- Brumbies 13 – Highlanders 18
As a die-hard Rebels fan, nothing brought me more joy than to see THAT first half display against the Waratahs. Everything clicked. We scored tries. The crowd was happy. Then, the second half happened. Injuries, questionable referee decisions, and an opposition who discovered how to play again. Well, it all added up to a seven point loss; not great, but enough to give fans some hope for this week.
As for the Highlanders, well they just stuck it out until the end. Despite a poor start, at no stage did they panic. Despite trailing for most of the match, they scored a late try and managed to hold the Brumbies out in the last 10min. Think they must love the cold of Canberra, it must remind them of Dunedin or something.
Both teams sit the bottom of their respective conferences. The Rebels sit last overall with a solitary competition point, the Highlanders sit 11th overall, with two wins.
The Teams
The Rebels have made one forced change to the side. Mitch Inman returns to the starting team, replacing Sefa Naivalu (Shoulder). He slots in at outside centre, with Tom English moving back to Wing. In some good news, the Forward pack remains unchanged. All of the players on HIA watch have been passed fit to play. On an extended bench Silvia Siliva, Sione Tuipulotu, Mick Snowden, and Lopeti Timani have all been named. In a boost for local players, Rebels U20 Captain Esei Haangana has been picked for his potential debut. More local talent – check.
For the Highlanders, they have made five changes to the team that beat the Brumbies. Marty Banks, in this first start for 2017, and Tevita Li return to the starting backline. Gareth Evans, Aki Seiuli, and Joe Wheeler return to the starting pack.
Key contests
Where are the key contests for this weekend?
The Centres
This could be a fantastic battle between Hodge / Inman and Buckman / Fekitoa.
We know what a dangerous combination Buckman and Fekitoa can be. In attack, they were somewhat quiet against the Brumbies; 11 runs for a combined 61 metres isn’t great by their standards. However, in front of a raucous home crowd, they’ll look to turn their form around. Fekitoa in particular, with the lure of a Lions series in his mind, will look to lift his game.
Malakai Fekitoa – a massive talent, looking for another All Blacks jersey.
Contrast that with the Rebels pair of Reece Hodge and Mitch Inman. It’s taken a few weeks, but Reece is starting to find the form that earned him a Wallaby jersey in 2016. Six runs for 48 metres, two clean breaks, beaten three defenders, two ripping tries (both converted), and two penalties is a welcome return to form. Inman returned from the bench last week, and his experience will we a welcome balance for a side looking for leadership in the last quarter of the match. The flair of Hodge, combined with rock solid defence of Inman, is a good balance.
The Back Row battle
It’s pretty hard to pick a weakness in any kiwi side, but this might be an area where the Rebels are stronger. Reid, Fainga’a and Mafi are in devastating form; in particular, the defensive efforts have been superb. Against the Waratahs, they put on 33 tackles between, 18 of them by Mafi alone. While the Highlanders back row of Evans, Hunt and Whitelock are solid, it’s not their strongest combination. If the Highlanders don’t protect the ball at the breakdown, the three amigos are sure to be all over it.
Amanaki Mafi – a standout in season 2017
Probably the biggest job the Rebels backrow have is shutting down Aaron Smith. His quick service has led to four try assists this season alone, so starving him of opportunity is a must.
Prediction
The Highlanders and Rebels have enjoyed a strong rivalry. Despite the Highlanders winning all but one of their matches, the average winning margin has only been eight points. Last year’s blowout at AAMI Park an obvious exception to the rule.
Both teams demonstrated last week it’s an 80 minute game; the Rebels game up the lead in the dying minutes, while the Highlanders snatched the lead close to full-time. If the Rebels want their first win, it must be a complete 80 minute performance (novel, yes I know). The big concern has been the injury tool and the impact on the Rebels depth. The Highlanders, while struck by some injuries, should have the depth to hold out the Rebels at home this week.
Expect a show from Aaron Smith, playing in his 100th Super Rugby Game. Well done Aaron!
Highlanders by 7
Take me back
So I wasn’t going to give up this opportunity. For us Rebel fans, I’m sure we remember this game. It was 2013, end of the season, down by a stack of points at the break, then the second half happened. Watch, and enjoy.
When you’re done, watch it again. And again. Don’t worry, work can wait.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-wytR_BTBA
Comment below if you remember this little gem of a match.
The Teams
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Highlanders
1. Aki Seiuli
2. Liam Coltman
3. Siate Tokolahi
4. Joseph Wheeler
5. Thomas Franklin
6. Gareth Evans
7. Dillon Hunt
8. Luke Whitelock
9. Aaron Smith
10. Marty Banks
11. Patrick Osborne
12. Richard Buckman
13. Malakai Fekitoa
14. Tevita Li
15. Ben Smith, FB
Reserves:
16 Greg Pleasants-Tate
17 Dan Lienert-Brown
18 Siua Halanukonuka
19 Elliot Dixon
20 Lima Sopoaga
20 Tupou Sopoaga
21 Kayne Hammington
22 Fletcher Smith
23 Matt Faddes
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Rebels
1. Fereti Sa’aga
2. James Hanson
3. Laurie Weeks
4. Culum Retallick
5. Steve Cummins
6. Jordy Reid
7. Colby Fainga’a
8. Amanaki Mafi
9. Nic Stirzaker (Captain)
10. Jackson Garden-Bachop
11. Tom English
12. Reece Hodge
13. Mitch Inman
14. Marika Koroibete
15. Jack Debreczeni
Reserves (one to be omitted):
Siliva Siliva
Tom Moloney
Tyrel Lomax
Dominic Day
Lopeti Timani
Jake Schatz
Esei Haangana^*
Mick Snowden
Sione Tuipulotu
Ben Volavola
^Super Rugby debut
*Rebels debut
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Details
Date: Friday, March 31
Venue: Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin
Kick-off: 17:35 AEST
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand), Angus Mabey (New Zealand)
TMO: Aaron Paterson (New Zealand)
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Stats courtesy of Opta Sports.
