Although normal G&GR service with the usual suspects won’t be resumed until 3 February, contrary to popular opinion there is some rugby being played north of the equator. With three domestic competitions taking a break and the European Cups completing their opening rounds, the rugby void has been filled with the Six Nations. This year’s tournament could be a cracker.
It kicks off on Friday, 31 January with France taking on Wales in Paris followed by Scotland v Italy and Ireland v England. My fearless predictions for round 1 are set out below.
France v Wales – Friday, 31 January. Paris. KO 20:00. Hope the lads have got their thermals on because the forecast is ‘it’s un petite bit nippy’.
FRANCE
The French will’ve been happy with three wins from three, including the scalp of the All Blacks in their autumn internationals. Going into the 6Ns brimming with confidence?
Team : 1 Gros, 2 Mauvaka, 3 Atonio, 4 Roumat, 5 Meafou, 6 Cros, 7 Boudahent, 8 Alldritt, 9 Dupont, 10 Ntamack, 11 Bielle-Biarry, 12 Moefana, 13, Barrassi, 14 Attissogbé, 15, Ramos
Replacements: 16 Marchand, 17 Baille, 18 Colombe, 19 Auradou, 20 Guillard, 21 Jegou, 22 Le Garrec, 23 Gailleton
France come into the opener with a few players injured. Penaud had been expected to return to the team but suffered a toe injury in training and Attissogbé will line up on the wing instead. They are also without the veteran centre Fickou, the lock Flament and the loose forward Ollivon. However, it pays to have strength in depth and the French have that in spades. Even with enforced changes that backline is to die for with Dupont and Ntamack back in harness, Ramos reverting to his preferred position at full back and Mr Jet Shoes LBB on the wing. It’s a strong pack with some grunt in the front five where Roumat replaces Flament. The back row looks tasty with Alldritt my player of last year’s tournament at 8. A strong 6/2 bench with their own version of the Bombe Squad.
WALES
Let’s just say it was an autumn series to forget very quickly.
Team: 1 G Thomas, 2 Lloyd, 3 H Thomas, 4 Rowlands, 5 Jenkins, 6 Botham, 7 Morgan, 8 Wainwright, 9 T Williams, 10 B Thomas, 11, Adams, 12, Watkin, 13 Tompkins, 14, Rogers, 15 L Williams
Replacements : 16 Dee, 17 Smith, 18 Assiratti, 19 F Thomas, 20 Reffell, 21 R Williams, 22 Edwards, 23 Murray
A mixture of youth and experience where there are just four survivors in the starting lineup from the side beaten by South Africa last time out – Thomas, Rowlands, Botham and Morgan. Tompkins is recalled, partnering Watkin in midfield. The return of Adams and Williams gives a more experienced look to the team that contains a combined total of 487 caps. Up front Gats has selected a solid bunch of forwards with debuts for Bath prop Henry Thomas (previously capped by the SDs) and Cardiff’s Lloyd at hooker replacing the injured Lake and Elias. Jenkins also returns at lock after an 11 month absence from the team. The back row of Wainwright at No 8 alongside Botham and Morgan is decent as well.
Prediction: Wales may cause Galthie’s men some problems. However, the way Toulouse dismantled a strong Tigers team was something to behold and seeing as a large chunk of that team will be facing Wales, Gatland’s lads will be in for a tough evening. France to start their campaign with a win.
Scotland v Italy – Saturday, 1 February. Edinburgh. KO 14:15. Forecast is a chilly and cloudy 6 degrees.
SCOTLAND
The Jocks had a good autumn series running the Bokke close and showing some good stuff in beating the G&G.
Team : 1 Schoeman, 2 Cherry, 3 Z Fagerson, 4 Gray, 5 Gilchrist, 6 Ritchie, 7 Darge, 8 M Fagerson. 9 White, 10 Russell, 11 van der Merwe, 12 McDowall, 13 Jones, 14, Graham, 15 Kinghorn
Replacements : 16 Ashman, 17 Sutherland, 18 Hurd, 19 Brown, 20 Dempsey, 21 Horne, 22 Jordan, 23 Rowe
The Jocks are the dark horses of the tournament for me. Forget all the criticism regarding their overseas players, they have a limited player base and the rules are the rules. The loss of their captain Tuipolotu will be felt. I hope he makes it on the Lions tour as I had Russell, him and Huw Jones pencilled in as the starting midfield. The backs are a mixture of power and pace with Russell pulling the strings. When he brings his A game he is arguably the best 10 playing rugby in the world today. The usual suspects are there up front minus Cummings which will be a loss but Jonny Gray will be a more than adequate replacement.
It must be nice for a coach to select from a very settled squad. That run on team should be more than good enough to take care of Italy at home. I suppose the only question I have is whether they have the bench to close out the game.
ITALY
An indifferent autumn series with a win against Georgia and losses against Argentina and the ABs.
Team : 1 Fischetti 2 Nicotera 3 Ferrari 4 Lamb 5 Ruzza 6 Negri, 7 Lamaro, 8 L Cannone, 9 Page-Relo, 10 P Garbisi, 11 Ioane, 12 Menoncello, 13 Brex, 14 Capuozzo, 15 Allan
Replacements : 16 Lucchesi, 17 Rizzoli, 18 Riccioni, 19 Cannone, 20 Zuliani, 21 Vintcent, 22 A Garbisi, 23 S Gesi
Not doubt Italy are improving. I was impressed by their backs in last year’s 6Ns and they have a cracking centre pair in Brex and Menoncello. The Garbisis are no slouches and in Capuozzo they have a real star. The only question for me is whether they have the cattle up front to give them a platform to show their stuff.
Prediction: Should be a win at home for the men in skirts. Whether it’s comfortable or not remains to be seen.
Ireland v England– Saturday, 1 February. Dublin. KO 14:45. Forecast could be a soggy 9 degrees.
IRELAND
The men in green had a pretty mediocre autumn series based on their previous high standards. A few experts are speculating that the shine is starting to wear off. However, it’s a new year and a new coach, and they’re going for a championship treble. Write them off at your peril.
Team : 1 Porter, 2 Kelleher, 3 Bealham, 4 Ryan, 5 Beirne, 6 Baird, 7 van der Flier, 8 Doris, 9 Gibson-Park, 10 Prendergast, 11 Lowe, 12 Aki, 13 Ringrose, 14 Hansen, 15 Keenan
Replacements: 16 Sheehan, 17 Healy, 18 Clarkson, 19 Henderson, 20 Conan, 21 Murray, 22 Crowley 23 Henshaw
Ireland will be without coach Andy Farrell who’s on Lions duty. Simon Easterby takes over for the duration, but will this make a difference to a squad who know each other backwards not least because half of them are from Leinster? The team virtually picks itself. Furlong is out injured but I’m certain he won’t be missed that much with Bealham being a decent replacement. Others have seen the Irish scrum as a potential weakness, but not me. No place for McCarthy in the engine room but Beirne slips comfortably into that spot. On the bench Healy goes on and on, and it’ll be strange not seeing the ugly mug of Peter O’Mahoney on the pitch. With the changes Borthwick has made in the back row they must fancy their chances at scrum and lineout. As with the SDs, the Irish have a bit of a dilemma as to who to play at 10. For some Prendergast is the new Sexton and he gets the nod. He’s certainly impressed playing for the Irish u20 and for Leinster but this is a different level.
ENGLAND
A decidedly ordinary autumn series with only a win against Japan to show for it and calls for the coach’s head on a pole. Heigh ho, onwards and upwards.
Team: 1 Genge, 2 Cowan-Dickie, 3 Stuart, 4 Itoje, 5 Martin, 6 T Curry, 7 B Curry, 8 B Earl, 9 Mitchell, 10 M Smith, 11 Murley, 12 Slade, 13 Lawrence, 14 Freeman, 15 Steward
Replacements: 16 Dan, 17 Baxter, 18 Heyes, 19 Chessum, 20 Cunningham-South, 21 Willis, 22 Randall, 23 F Smith
It appears that Borthwick is both predictable and unpredictable. He named his team early and lobbed in a grenade or two for good measure. With the exception of Murley, who apparently works a lot off MS at the Quins, the backs selection was very predictable. Steward was a shoo-in for the injured George Furbank and the resumption of the Lawrence/Slade partnership was always on the cards as was his choice of Mitchell and Marcus Smith. The grenades come from Borthwick’s decision to hand the captaincy to Itoje and in his back row selection. Jamie George is injured, but it’s debatable whether he would’ve made the match day squad. In spite of the clamour for the selection of Ted Hill and Tom Willis, Borthwick has gone for pace rather than height and heft with his choice of essentially three 7s in the shape of the Curry twins and Earl. OK if you’ve got a very good front five but…… At least he’s picked a strong bench in case that particular grenade blows up in our faces.
Prediction: It’s difficult to see anything but a home win for the Irish but it may be closer than some SD naysayers are predicting. Expect the usual Irish chaos at the breakdown and they do have a great counter ruck. With pace in their back row are the SDs hoping to counteract this?
WINNERS AND LOSERS
So who’s going to come out on top? For me, it’s a three horse race where home advantage and bonus points may be the deciding factor. I don’t think there will be a Grand Slam this year. France and Ireland look to be favourites with the Scots being the dark horses. I fancy the men in skirts to beat Ireland in Edinburgh and England at Twickers. France in Paris could be their decider. On paper Ireland should beat both France and Scotland but they could quite easily lose both games. To win with a Grand Slam is going to be a big ask for the French but they have such a strong squad it’s not beyond the realms of possibility. As to the wooden spoon, Wales have three away games and a home game against Ireland so the odds on them receiving the wooden object are pretty high. However, rugby is a funny old game and there could be a surprise or two.
Wearing my SD hat, after the appalling autumn series Borthwick needs to turn things around pretty damned quick. Beating Scotland, Wales and Italy would be just about a pass. With the Lions squad unlikely to be loaded with Englishmen, taking a strong squad to Argentina and winning there should be a priority.
