Who’ll Be Smiling After Saturday Night?

The bookies think it’ll be the team in Red… sorry, Grey! I feel most people think the Crusaders are the favourites, and most Aussies hope it’s the Reds but suspect it might be the Crusaders.

Before the semi-finals I was asked for my predictions – I went with the Reds over the Blues and the Crusaders over the Stormers. Then it came to the question of Reds v. Crusaders in the final. I dodged answering as I thought it would be too close too call. After the semi-finals I started wavering towards the Crusaders – their demolition of the Stormers was very impressive.

Now I’ve had the opportunity to review both semi-finals again and to look back at the games between the two teams last year and earlier this year, both of which were played at Suncorp Stadium.

I also revisited my preview video on the threats the Crusaders posed for the Reds in their Round 15 game this year to see whether things have changed — and they haven’t. (You also may like to have a look here.)

I’ve now switched my view and believe the Reds will win the final on Saturday.

I think the forwards for the two teams will cancel each other out and I think  the combination of four players for the Reds — Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Digby Ioane and Rod Davies — will make the difference. Individually they are all brilliant, but together I think they offer something exceptional as they give the Reds threats in close with Genia, the totally unexpected all over the field with Cooper, and out wide with Ioane and Davies. Given the recent form of all four, I think the threats the Reds present are just spread too far across the field for any team to shut them down.

Of course, the Crusaders have plenty of threats themselves but I expect them to play a more conservative, controlled game and to play it very, very well.

Looking a little deeper than those general comments, here’s what I think each team will aim to do:

Crusaders

1. Target the Reds scrum – the Reds are very keen to attack from set pieces but that’s difficult to do if the ball at the back of the scrum is scrappy or your halfback is going backwards to receive the ball. That disruption will upset the Reds game plan and any tight heads won would be a bonus for the Crusaders.
2. Target the Reds lineout – the target here will probably be Saia Faingaa. His throwing sometimes lets him down and I suspect the Crusaders will be pressuring him more than focusing on the Reds’ jumpers. If they can pressure him enough to push his throws so they are called not straight or are overthrown, the pressure increases for his next throw…
3. Lift their defensive line speed to reduce the time Cooper has to weave his magic.
4. Play very directly – I expect the Crusaders will aim to play through the middle third of the field through their forward pack, supplemented by Sonny Bill Williams and Robbie Fruean running angles back into centre field. If they play this way and can get a roll on, then expect Dan Carter to take over and play field position.
5. Play field position – the Crusaders will want most of the Reds’ scrum and lineout feeds to be inside their own half. I also think the Crusaders will concede that they can’t shut down the Reds attack completely and the Reds will make a number of line breaks, but they’ll know it’s easier to shut down those line breaks if they’re made in the Reds’ half of the field, so I expect Dan Carter to keep pumping the ball long. The Crusaders played the Stormers with only 42 per cent of possession so they are used to this style of play.
6. Create counter attack opportunities – this is where the Crusaders score most of their points and the first five points I’ve outlined will create those opportunities within the Reds’ half, so the Crusaders can take maximum advantage of any errors.

Reds

1. Despite their reputation as the most attacking team in the competition, the Reds are right at the pointy end of the competition in terms of the amount of kicking they do. So how can we reconcile these two points? I think the Reds kick in a more attacking manner than any other team; they might kick a lot but a substantial number of those kicks are in behind the line or across field aimed at their outside men who will try to recover the kick to create a scoring opportunity.  One example of this is the cross kick Quade Cooper pulled off to Digby Ioane earlier this year against the Cheetahs – it might have counted as a kick in the statistics column but it’s not the sort of kick you’d see any other team try. I expect the Reds will continue this attacking kicking theme, regardless of the fact that it’s the final.
2. Aim for quick ball in the scrum – why not acknowledge the Crusaders’ scrum is the best in the competition and just aim to get the ball in and out quickly to minimise any damage they may do?
3. Take on the Crusaders in the lineout – throw the ball long to the back jumper early in the game, and if the Crusaders keep trying to apply pressure on the throw by focusing on the front two thirds of the lineout, keep throwing long. If they move to cover the back, then change the option. The worst thing I think the Reds could do would be to go conservative at the lineout, trying to make it easier for Faingaa. Show confidence that you don’t see his throwing as a weakness and it may well be he feels the confidence and throws better.
4. The Reds also need to lift their defensive line speed. This is the best way to deal with Williams and his offloads.
5. Be prepared to counter-attack from within their own half. As I’ve already mentioned I expect the Crusaders will try to pin the Reds in their own half and wait for mistakes. The Reds may make mistakes running out of their own half but as they’ve shown all season, they are very good at it and are more than capable of scoring from long range. Why change now?

Does that all sound like a too adventurous approach for the Reds to take into a Super Rugby final? The worst thing I think the Reds could do is to change the way they’ve played most of the year just because it’s the final. If the Reds take the Crusaders on with a conservative game plan trying to not lose the game, I think the Crusaders will do it better, but if the Reds play their natural game, I think they will outshine the Crusaders.

My tip: the Reds by 10 in one of the most entertaining games of rugby we’ve seen for years.