The last few days have given us a great deal of insight into how the final Wallabies versus Lions teams for the first test in Brisbane will be lining up and that in turn gives us some further clues how to the two teams may be opting to play.
The most definitive statement came from the Lions in the naming of their team to face the Brumbies, coupled with recent injuries. You wouldn’t expect any of the starting XV to be in Saturday’s squad, and the pure pressure of numbers says the bench on Tuesday will most likely be the bench on the weekend.
For the Wallabies it was the release of Dennis and Horne to the Tahs that gave us some final clues as to the Wallaby back row and inside centre combinations.
Here then are what we believe will be the two match day squads.
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Wallabies
1. Benn Robinson
2. Stephen Moore
3. Ben Alexander
4. James Horwill
5. Kane Douglas
6. Ben Mowen
7. Michael Hooper
8. Wycliff Palu
9. Will Genia
10. James O’Connor
11. Nick Cummins
12. Pat McCabe
13. Adam Ashley-Cooper
14. Israel Folau
15. Kurtley Beale
16. Saia Faingaa
17. Sekope Kepu
18. James Slipper
19. Hugh McMeniman
20. Liam Gill
21. Nick Phipps
22. Christian Leali’ifano
23. Berrick Barnes
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British and Irish Lions
1. Mako Vuniploa
2. Tom Youngs
3. Adam Jones
4. Alun Wyn Jones
5. Paul O’Connell
6. Tom Croft
7. Sam Warburton
8. Jamie Heaslip
9. Mike Phillips
10. Jonathan Sexton
11. George North
12. Jonathan Davies
13. Brian O’Driscoll
14. Alex Cuthbert
15. Leigh Halfpenny
16. Richard Hibbard
17. Alex Corbisiero
18. Dan Cole
19. Geoff Parling
20. Dan Lydiate
21. Conor Murray
22. Owen Farrell
23. Simon Zebo
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What’s interesting is that the Lions selections of Vunipola, Tom Youngs, Croft, Warburton and Heaslip are all ones that favour work rate over power, especially at scrum time. Is this yet another indication that the Lions are preparing for a high tempo match? Perhaps they also feel that overkill on scrum dominance will simply not be worth it with two southern hemisphere referees?
From the beginning our assumption has been that Deans will play a conservative style, preferring McCabe or Horne at 12. However, does the release of Horne to the Waratahs last weekend signal that Deans has a wider game plan in mind? With Roberts out of the first test with injury, the pressure for pure defensive power at 12 is somewhat diminished, and if the Reds and Waratah matches showed us anything, it was that there are metres to be made wide against the Lions, if you can get there.
Other interesting Wallaby selection decisions will be Douglas vs Simmons, Mowen vs McMeniman and Beale vs Barnes. Hear our thoughts on these and more on our most recent podcast (inset).
So what do you think, how right have we got it?
