With the June Test window now closed it’s time to remind ourselves who will, who won’t, & who might be playing finals footy when Super Rugby resumes.
The Wills
The winners of the four Conferences (Africa 1, Africa 2, Australia, New Zealand) will be seeded 1-4 according to where they finish relative to each other & be awarded a home quarter final.
Their opponents will be the next-ranked African & three next-ranked Australasian teams, seeded 5-8 according to where they finish relative to each other: even if a “wildcard” finishes with more table points than a Conference winner, the wildcard cannot be seeded higher than fifth, nor the Conference winner lower than fourth.
The quarter final draw will be:
Seed 1 v Seed 8
Seed 2 v Seed 7
Seed 3 v Seed 6
Seed 4 v Seed 5
Predicted Conference winners
1. Crusaders, 58
2. Stormers, 53
3. Lions, 48
4. Brumbies, 45
The Won’ts
Few expected South Africa’s Kings or Japan’s Sunwolves expansion teams to make much of an impact & they haven’t. Much more was expected of Argentina’s Puma-laden Jaguares, but they, too, have had a disappointing debut season.
Of the established sides most picked the Cheetahs, Force & Reds to struggle & such has proven to be the case. The Rebels started well, albeit against lesser opposition, to lead the Australian Conference at one point but have now dropped out of contention, as have the Blues.
With three rounds of the regular season remaining there are four teams in contention for Africa’s three quarter-final berths, and six for Australasia’s five.
The Maybes
African Group:
Bulls – current points 32: 2nd in Conference, 4th in Group
Remaining fixtures: Jaguares (Away), Sunwolves (Home), Cheetahs (A).
Prospects: should win all three & probably pick up bonus points in two to finish runner-up in their Conference & 3rd in the Group.
Predicted points: 46
Predicted seeding: 8th
Lions – 42: top of Conference & Group, 2nd overall
Remaining fixtures: Sharks (H), Kings (H), Jaguares (A).
Prospects: should also win all three & collect two bonus points to top both their Conference & Group. Could even finish as “minor premiers” if results in the Australasian Group go their way.
Predicted points: 56
Predicted seeding: 2nd
Sharks – 35: 2nd in Conference, 3rd in Group
Remaining fixtures: Lions (A), Cheetahs (H), Sunwolves (H).
Prospects: they’ll probably lose in Jo’burg but win the two home games with at least one BP.
Predicted points: 44, not enough to qualify.
Stormers – 36: top of Conference, 2nd in Group
Remaining fixtures: Rebels (A), Force(A), Kings (H).
Prospects: three wins but only one BP which will be enough to win their Conference but not the Group.
Predicted points: 49
Predicted seeding: 3rd
Australasian Group:
Brumbies – 34: top of Conference, 2nd in Group
Remaining fixtures: Reds (H), Blues (A), Force (H).
Prospects: should win the home games handily & be too good for the Blues, even if only just, to take out their Conference.
Predicted points: 48
Predicted seeding: 4th
Chiefs – 42: 2nd in Conference, 3rd in Group
Remaining fixtures: Crusaders (Fiji), Reds (A), Highlanders (A).
Prospects: so much depends on what happens in Suva: win that & they’re odds-on to top the Group, but lose & they’ll need to beat the Highlanders or risk missing out altogether.
Predicted points: 51
Predicted seeding: 5th
Crusaders – 45: top of Conference, Group & overall
Remaining fixtures: Chiefs (Fiji), Rebels (H), Hurricanes (H).
Prospects: a win in Suva would all but secure top seeding, a loss would make topping the Group still possible but require both a last-round win & a Chiefs last-round loss.
Predicted points: 58
Predicted seeding: 1st
Highlanders – 38: 4th in Conference, 5th in Group
Remaining fixtures: Kings (A), Jaguares (A), Chiefs (H).
Prospects: will surely flog the Kings & win in Buenos Aires as well so Chiefs match should determine which wildcard they secure.
Predicted points: 50
Predicted seeding: 6th
Hurricanes – 40: 3rd in Conference, 4th in Group
Remaining fixtures: Blues (H), Waratahs (A), Crusaders (A).
Prospects: should beat the Blues but ‘tahs & Crusaders away is a big ask so they’ll likely bank two wins & a narrow loss. Any less & they’ll open the door for the Waratahs.
Predicted points: 49
Predicted seeding: 7th
Waratahs – 34: 2nd in Conference, 6th in Group
Remaining fixtures: Sunwolves (A), Hurricanes (H), Blues (A).
Prospects: won’t lose in Japan & shouldn’t lose in Auckland but three from three looks a bridge too far, especially as they’d likely need at least two bonus point wins.
Predicted points: 43, not enough to qualify.
Predicted Quarter Final Draw:
Crusaders v Bulls
Lions v Hurricanes
Stormers v Highlanders
Brumbies v Chiefs
