The Bulls won’t be worried about playing in Sydney. They may have lost the last game at Allianz Stadium but they won the previous three here as part of eight wins on the trot against the Waratahs.
The Form
The Waratahs have won three Super Rugbty games in a row with their best win a nail-biter in Cape Town, but they bungled a dog of a second half against the young Cheetahs last Saturday. The result was never in doubt but they forsook a bonus point win with their erratic play after the break.
Maybe the flight east from the republic affected the players, but other teams have had it tougher and won well on return. At least their scrum, which had created the winning try against the Stormers in Round 10, was influential again, albeit against the worst scrum in the competition.
The Bulls played poorly losing in Canberra last week and didn’t look like a team that hadn’t lost a game since Rd. 1. They were caned by the referee, turned over the ball like rugby millionaires and, bereft of possession in Brumbies’ territory, could not score a try.
Jan Serfontein – despite his efforts the Bulls couldn’t score a try last week
The Teams
Waratahs
Despite the injury in the last game to giant lock Skelton, the Waratahs have been able to retain the same side for the Bulls. The only proviso is that Dempsey has been bracketed with Hanigan as the reserve backrower.
The Waratahs may try to do what the Brumbies did to the Bulls last week: they mixed an astute tactical kicking game with near-thuggery at the breakdown. The Tahs will also have to be precise on maul defence because the Bulls are able specialists.
Bulls
After playing virtually the same team in Perth and Canberra, the Bulls have rotated their touring players and made six changes in their line-up for Sydney. The most significant are the benching of their ace goal-kicker, fullback Bremmer, and the return of rested scrum half Paige to the starting team.
The Bulls have to retain the ball better than against the Brumbies and reduce their high tally of turnovers. It was no wonder that they enjoyed only one-third of the possession and played two-thirds of game in their own half.
Israel Folsu – part of the midfield matchup
Key matchups
Set piece v set-piece
This is will be like a cricket match where one team is better at batting, and the other is a better bowling side.
Despite a woeful start to the season the Waratahs’ scrum has risen like a phoenix from the ashes. They are the big improvers of Super Rugby in this function and will fancy themselves against the Bulls.
For all the talk about a massive forward pack and how good South African scrums are, the Bulls have the second-worst record in Super Rugby, losing 20% of their own scrums; and its tight head prop, van der Merwe, is a penalty magnet.
But they have it all over the Tahs in the lineout stats. The bad throwing of various Waratah hookers, and some clumsy lineout choreography and lifting, has made them one of the poorer lineout units: only three teams in Super Rugby have a worse success rate.
And the Bulls have able practitioners in thrower Adriaan Strauss and catcher RG Snyman; so putting jumpers up in front of Snyman could be a good plan for the Tahs; not kicking the ball out is another.
The centres
Jan Serfontein and Jesse Kriel form the best young midfield in the republic. How they defend against the recent pairing of Wallabies Kurtey Beale and Israel Folau when they get quality front foot ball, will be key in stopping the Waratahs causing havoc behind their lines.
Their own attack will be met with the wily Horne partnering Folau on set moves, but Kriel in particular will have to be watched by all Waratahs in general play—his swift, swerving forays from the edge of the field to the middle can be lethal.
Nick Phipps v Rudy Paige
Paige was a live-wire from the bench the last time he was in Sydney and I look forward to seeing him play again. He is sharp, passes the ball well and is one of the best kicking scrummies in South Africa.
He returns to the Bulls starting team after being rested for the two earlier games in Australia. He made his test debut against the USA in the recent Rugby World Cup; so playing in a crunch Super Rugby game will hold no fears for him.
He will be aware that Phipps is the premier scrum half in Australia with a swag of test caps to his name. The Waratah has more talents than the Bull and has an edge in on-field leadership and sweeping up the garbage; but watch out for Paige: he can play rugby.
Rudy Paige – one of the best practitioners in South Africa
Why should I bother?
This is a crunch game for both sides.
The way the Kiwi teams are playing it would be a long shot for the Waratahs to qualify for the finals if they don’t win the Australian Conference ahead of the Brumbies and Rebels.
Likewise the Bulls have to get ahead of the Stormers to win the Africa One Conference to guarantee a spot. Victory is just what they need before they return to Pretoria to face the Stormers in their return match.
Since both teams are one point behind their closest division rivals, this match will have massive importance.
It will be dramatic; don’t miss it.
Prediction
Although the Bulls have won six games in 2016 they were all against teams now lower than them on the overall standings—and five of the six have the worst record in Super Rugby this year.
The teams the Waratahs have beaten are hardly candidates for the finals either, apart from the Stormers; so it’s a thin reason for favouritism; but they are on a roll and if they walk the talk I predict …
Waratahs by 8
Waratahs – should be favourites to win
Team lists & details
[one_third last=”no”]
Waratahs
1. Paddy Ryan
2. Tatafu Polota-Nau
3. Tom Robertson
4. Dave Dennis
5. Will Skelton
6. Dean Mumm
7. Michael Hooper (c)
8. Wyclff Palu
9. Nick Phipps
10. Bernard Foley
11. Rob Horne
12. Kurtley Beale
13. Israel Folau
14. Reece Robinson
15. Andrew Kellaway
Reserves:
16. Hugh Roach
17. Jeremy Tilse
18. Angus Ta’avao
19. Sam Lousi
20. N.Hanigan/J.Dempsey
21. Matt Lucas
22. David Horwitz
23. Matt Carraro
[/one_third]
[one_third last=”no”]
Bulls
1. Lizo Gqoboka
2. Adriaan Strauss (c)
3. Marcel van der Merwe
4. Jason Jenkins
5. RG Snyman
6. Pieter Labuschagne
7. Jannes Kirsten
8. Hanro Liebenberg
9. Rudy Paige
10. Tian Schoeman
11. Bjorn Basson
12. Jan Serfontein
13. Jesse Kriel
14. Jamba Ulengo
15. SP Marais
Reserves:
16. Jaco Visagie
17. Trevor Nyakane
18. Pierre Schoeman
19. Marvin Orie
20. Roelof Smit
21. Piet van Zyl
22. Francois Brummer
23. Dries Swanepoel
[/one_third]
[one_third last=”yes”]
Details
Date: Saturday, May 14th
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Kick-off: 19.45 AEST
Referee: Glen Jackson
Assistant referees: Ben O’Keefe, James Leckie
TMO: George Ayoub[/one_third]
Statistics courtesy of Opta Sports.
