New Zealand are chasing a third clean sweep since the expansion of The Rugby Championship. Can South Africa stop them and will their ambition extend beyond keeping the score down?
The form
South Africa
Thus far South Africa have had a forgettable campaign. They struggled against Argentina in both games though a late try from Whiteley saw them snatch an unconvincing win at home. The return fixture was also close but the Pumas held their nerve.
Their results against the Wallabies went to the home team in both fixtures. Although they scored two tries at Suncorp they were on the wrong end of a one-score match. Last week they were try-less but Morne Steyn kicked them to victory at Loftus Versfeld.
The Springboks will have to raise their game another notch if they’re to stand any chance of winning this one. Kicks at goal won’t beat the All Blacks.
Springboks have to play better this week
New Zealand
As you would expect from a team that have won all their matches so far, the All Blacks have looked pretty comfortable for much of this campaign.
Their opening round thumping of the Wallabies was followed up by a tighter affair in Wellington but they were still able to stretch away in the second half.
The Pumas put them under intense pressure in the first half of their game in Hamilton but again the All Blacks pulled away after the interval. It was more straight forward in Buenos Aires last week as NZ massacred the home team with three tries in the last five minutes of the first half to take Los Pumas out of the game early.
There have been many too many top All Black performers for opponents this year, with Beauden Barrett at the head of the class.
Beauden Barrett – head of the class
Team news
New Zealand – The big news is that Aaron Smith has been sent home for an earlier indiscretion that has just been made public, but his absence should scarcely signify since TJ Perenara played so well when he started last week.
Blindside Flanker Jerome Kaino returns from injury, displacing Liam Squire—and winger Waisake Naholo is also fit again. Julian Savea is excluded from the matchday team for George Moala who may get a run from the reserves. Lock Sam Whitelock returns from a rotation on the bench. The fourth change in the starting team is that Matt Todd will run-on with the 7 jersey.
With other minor alterations this is more like changing the guys in a firing squad.
South Africa – The are two changes to the starting personnel because of injuries. Faf de Klerk replaces Rudy Paige, concussed last week, and Damien de Allende runs on because of a groin injury to Jesse Kriel. Versatile Juan de Jongh moves over to outside centre.
The last time they met
The game in Christchurch was a blowout with the All Blacks scoring six tries to one. The Springboks scored the first try and were only five points down at the break but lost the game by 23.
The only real take away from the game is that the Boks will be fired up and determined not to let something similar happen on home soil.
Key players and match-ups
The back rows
Louw, Mohoje and Whiteley will face off against Kaino, Todd and Read. The backrow has long been one of the strongest parts of the Kiwi game, and for the Boks, Whiteley has been one of their form players and Louw has been a turnover machine. They will need him at his pilfering best in Durban.
The New Zealand loosies don’t often come off second best and the Bok unit is one of their mainstays. With spots on the end of year tour up for grabs, expect all back rowers to make their mark in this game.
Francois Louw – can turn over the ball and run with it too
The lineout
This contest is an exciting prospect. With Eben Etzebeth being one of the best practitioners in the world and Adriaan Strauss having an impressive lineout completion rate of 96%, this set piece is one of the strengths of the Springbok game. Unfortunately for South Africa, the New Zealand locks are pretty handy too.
Both teams like to target their opponent’s lineout, and Read, Whitelock, Etzebeth and Whiteley have each poached their share. It will be a hotly contested area.
Sam Whitelock and Eben Etzebeth – lineout gurus
The back three
Lambie, Habana and Hougaard will have a tough job containing Ben Smith and Israel Dagg who are two of the top line-breakers in the Championship, and Waisake Naholo will be ready to break some tackles after his lay-off. The Boks will have to be accurate with their kicking and put the pressure on when they are chasing kicks. That’s a tough task already but they’ll also have to offer more in attack that they have before in the tournament.
The New Zealand back three have been sublime this season with Ben Smith the standout. You just don’t want to be kicking ball to this guy in open space.
Ben Smith – do not kick the ball to this fellow
Prediction
Can the Boks do it?
The SARU did not help by scheduling the match to be played at sea level in Durban, and it’s been a long time since New Zealand suffered defeat in the test arena anywhere: 14 months to be exact, in Sydney. It would be a shock if they lost this one, but then it would be a shock if they lost to anyone at the moment. Still, the run needs to end sometime and coach Allister Coetzee will be thinking: why not on Saturday?
Every player in the New Zealand squad will believe they are going to win—but only some of the Springboks will truly believe that they can do so. If the Boks have a good start and are still in the game at the hour mark they will start to believe it’s possible. Then they’ll need an excellent last 20 to turn belief into reality.
All Blacks and Springboks – only one team will believe they can win
Both Argentina and Australia have shown that it’s possible to contest well against the All Blacks for periods this year; however, South Africa will have to not only emulate them but also go one step further and sustain it for 80 minutes.
They’ll need to keep the error count down and be accurate with their kicking. They’ll also have to win the lineout battle, where Etzebeth will be key, and get their driving maul going. Even with all that they’ll still need lady luck to smile on them.
New Zealand by 7.
Team lists & details
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South Africa
1. Tendai Mtawarira
2. Adriaan Strauss (c)
3. Vincent Koch
4. Eben Etzebeth
5. Pieter-Steph du Toit
6. Francois Louw
7. Teboho Mohoje
8. Warren Whiteley
9. Faf de Klerk
10. Morné Steyn
11. Bryan Habana
12. Damien de Allende
13. Juan de Jongh
14. Francois Hougaard
15. Johann Goosen
Reserves:
16. Bongi Mbonambi
17. Steven Kitshoff
18. Julian Redelinghuys
19. Willem Alberts
20. Lood de Jager
21. Jaco Kriel
22. Lionel Mapoe
23. Willie le Roux
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New Zealand
1. Joe Moody
2. Dane Coles
3. Owen Franks
4. Brodie Retallick
5. Sam Whitelock
6. Jerome Kaino
7. Matt Todd
8. Kieran Read (c)
9. TJ Perenara
10. Beauden Barrett
11. Waisake Naholo
12. Ryan Crotty
13. Anton Lienert-Brown
14. Israel Dagg
15. Ben Smith
Reserves:
16. Codie Taylor
17. Wyatt Crockett
18. Charlie Faumuina
19. Liam Squire
20. Ardie Savea
21. Tawera Kerr-Barlow
22. Lima Sopoaga
23. George Moala
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Details
Date: Saturday, October 8th
Venue: Growthpoint Kings Park, Durban
Kick-off: 17:05 local, 02:05 AEDT(Sun)
Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)
Assistant referees: Johnny Lacey (Ireland), George Clancy (Ireland)
TMO: Jim Yuille (Scotland)[/one_third]
Stats courtesy of Opta Sports
Springboks team
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