France get a chance to avenge last year’s RWC quarter final humiliation when they host New Zealand at Stade de France on Sunday morning Australian time.
Recent form and head-to-head
France being inconsistent is such a cliche, but the fact is that under Guy Noves they’ve been… inconsistent. Having opened their Six Nations campaign with two narrow wins, they lost their remaining three matches; shared the June series with Argentina (albeit the team that lost the first match was under strength due to it clashing with the Top 14 Final); and in November have thumped Samoa and lost narrowly to Australia to be four wins from nine matches this year.
New Zealand meanwhile whitewashed Wales in June then went unbeaten in the SANZAAR Rugby Championship. Victory in Bledisloe 3 saw them establish a new Tier One record of 18 consecutive wins before Ireland famously brought the streak to an end in Chicago. A big win in Rome a week later was followed by a hard-fought but ultimately comfortable win in Dublin last week.
This will be the teams’ 57th meeting, New Zealand holding a 43-12 head to head advantage. The All Blacks have won 17 of the 24 matches played in France, including four of the five played at Stade de France (the other being the only drawn match between them).
Last time they met
Some indifferent Pool play and the ghosts of World Cups past had many All Black supporters nervous ahead of the 2015 Quarter Final matchup with Les Bleus. They needn’t have worried, the All Blacks producing one of the great performances to destroy France 62-13, a record World Cup playoff score and the most points ever conceded by France.
Dan Coles in action at Rugby World Cup 2015 – NZ v. France
Team & jersey news
France have made three changes from the XV that played Australia last week. At fullback Brice Dulin replaces Scott Spedding who drops out of the 23, Camille Lopez comes in at fly-half for Jean-Marc Doussain and Xavier Chiocci takes over from Cyril Baille at loosehead prop, the latter dropping to the bench.
Both All Black vice captains, fullback Ben Smith (compound-fractured finger) and flanker Sam Cane (sprained ankle), are injured and centre Malakai Fekitoa has been suspended for his stupid high tackle last week. They are replaced by wing Waisake Naholo (Israel Dagg moving to fullback), Matt Todd and the fit-again Ryan Crotty, respectively.
Flanker Jerome Kaino is also back from injury, Liam Squire dropping out of the 23. Half back Aaron Smith, outplayed twice against Ireland, has been dropped to the bench for TJ Perenara. Outside back Rieko Ioane replaces Naholo on the bench.
The All Blacks will be wearing a mostly white jersey with black around the shoulders and upper chest so as not to clash with France’s blue-black strip.
Ben Smith – has nasty finger injury
Key areas and players
France’s lineout has been flawless so far in November, all 20 throws finding their target. New Zealand struggled at lineout time in Chicago but the return of the old firm of Retallick and Whitelock (140 caps between them) will give France some headaches, too.
The French won three scrums against Australia’s feed last week and are sure to test the All Black eight’s technique and stamina. Starting Owen Franks and Joe Moody suggests they’re expecting a torrid time up front.
Flanker Charles Ollivon has been France’s rock in an at times shaky defence, making 23 tackles and missing none so far this Autumn, as well as being busy around the park. He’ll be up against another rock-solid defender in Jerome Kaino who’s on record as being bitterly disappointed with his last outing and is no doubt wanting to make amends.
Jerome Kaino – disappointed in his last outing
France haven’t yet found a game-controlling flyhalf (there being so many foreign 10’s in the Top 14 surely being a factor) as both Lopez and Doussain are essentially converted halfbacks, but Maxime Machenaud does now seem to be their first-choice nine. The All Blacks’ Hurricanes pairing of Perenara and Barrett has been a very successful one in the past and there’s no reason to think it will be less so this time out.
Wesley Fofana has been in sensational form of late, and his combination with 7’s convert Virimi Vakatawa gives France a potentially lethal left-edge attack. Their opposites Ryan Crotty and Waisake Naholo are sure to have their hands full. The All Blacks, though, will be backing impressive young centre Anton Lienert-Brown to turn in another strong performance and with both Naholo and Julian Savea on the wings they’ve plenty of strike power out wide and in Crotty a canny organiser both in defence and attack.
Wesley Fofana – in sensational form
Game plans
France may well look to play a game of zones: ball in hand when exiting their 22, kicking for the corners and rushing up to prevent the quick lineout when beyond the All Blacks 10m line, and a bit of both between the 10m lines. A close-range rolling maul or a break from Fofana or Vakatawa look their most likely try-scoring avenues. They’ll likely also look to force as many scrums as possible both to tire the All Blacks pack, and pick up the odd penalty to help with their territory game or keep the scoreboard ticking over.
New Zealand will just keep doing what they’ve been doing for what seems like forever (except, oddly, in Chicago): play the game at pace and as much as possible in the French half; selective and accurate kicking and chasing; purposeful carries and aggressive clean outs; and exploit the gaps and mis-matches thereby created. The first and third tries in Dublin are perfect examples of this formula in action. The fallout from the high tackles (actual and perceived) last week will ensure they’re under greater than usual scrutiny so discipline in that regard will be key.
Sam Cane in action – discipline will be key for All Blacks
Prediction
It’s going to take time for France to cast off the four years of stodge that was Philippe Saint-Andre’s coaching tenure: the intent is there but the execution isn’t quite. Les Bleus may well be carving it up come 2019 (or sooner) but right now their world ranking of eighth is a fair reflection of where they’re at.
The All Blacks will have to pick themselves up after the gruelling match in Dublin last week, and do it without two key members of the leadership group, albeit that another is returning. Provided the focus is on the job at hand rather than the return home and break to follow, this should be a comfortable enough victory.
All Blacks by 20.
Match details
Date: Saturday, November 26Venue: Stade de France, Paris
Kick-off: 21:00 local (07:00 Sunday AEDT)
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant Referees: Federico Anselmi (Argentina), Dudley Phillips (Ireland)
TMO: Rowan Kitt (England)
France: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Noa Nakaitaci, 13 Rémi Lamerat, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Virimi Vakatawa, 10 Camille Lopez, 9 Maxime Machenaud, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Kevin Gourdon, 6 Charles Ollivon, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Sébastian Vahaamahina, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Xavier Chiocci
Replacements: 16 Camille Chat, 17 Cyril Baille, 18 Rabah Slimani, 19 Julien Le Devedec, 20 Damien Chouly, 21 Baptiste Serin, 22 Jean-Marc Doussain, 23 Gaël Fickou
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody.
Replacements: 16 Codie Taylor, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Charlie Faumuina, 19 Scott Barrett, 20 Ardie Savea, 21 Aaron Smith, 22 Aaron Cruden, 23 Rieko Ioane
