The Brumbies are the lone Australian representative left in the finals and they will need one of their best games against the defending champion Highlanders on Friday night and keep a 10 year home unbeaten streak against the Clan intact.
The Brumbies will welcome back David Pocock from a fractured eye socket suffered in the first Test against England and his presence will lift his team mates after they limped into the finals following the Test break.
The Brumbies started off their season with a big win over the Hurricanes but have struggled to reach those lofty heights since, the Sunwolves game excluded, and suffered a loss when these two teams last met in Invercargill back in round 10.
In that game they dominated the possession (73%) but could not get through a determined Highlanders defence and the hosts took the minimal chances they had to run out 23-10 winners.
With similar conditions to that windy and rainy Invercargill night, the Brumbies can ill afford the same mistakes they made on that night or will suffer similar consequences. With no bonus point on offer in finals football, they will probably revert to what they know best, the rolling maul to suit the conditions but will need to execute better.
The one thing that raises eyebrows are the selections in the Brumbies. As mentioned, Pocock is back in but Rory Arnold, who had a good game against the Force, has been ruled out with an elbow injury with Blake Enever coming straight into the second row.
In the backline, Robbie Coleman comes straight back into the starting XV after a few games in local club rugby for Queanbyean at the expense of James Dargaville and will certainly have his hands full up against Waisake Naholo who could have field day if given just an inch of room.
The Brumbies are up against one of the best counter attacking side in the comp but interestingly they also kick the most. The Brumbies will need to be spot on with with their kicking (into row 5 every time) to stop Ben Smith, Patrick Osborne and Waisake Naholo from shredding the defence and also competing for the ball, which will have extra importance if the rain sets in.
Key Matchups
The halves – Cubelli/Lealiifano v A Smith/Sopoaga – An obvious matchup but one that is so crucial to either teams success. Cubelli started on the bench against the Reds but picked up the tempo of the game against a tiring defence to give a glimpse of what he can produce.
Aaron Smith controls the Highlanders backline so well and has the box kick in his arsenal to get his side out of trouble if any of the six other backline threats can’t get the job done. Sopoaga is up there on the kicking charts so the Brumbies can’t give away too many easy points or will struggle to keep up.
Prediction
Obviously I want the Brumbies to win and progress to the semi finals but the Highlanders are the defending champions and have a bit more class in the key areas and have looked far more impressive in the rounds since the Test break than the Brumbies. Highlanders by 5.
Teams
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BRUMBIES
1. Scott Sio
2. Stephen Moore
3. Ruan Smith
4. Blake Enever
5. Sam Carter
6. Scott Fardy
7. David Pocock
8. Jarrad Butler
9. Tomás Cubelli
10. Christian Lealiifano
11. Robbie Coleman
12. Matt Toomua
13. Tevita Kuridrani
14. Nigel Ah Wong
15. Aidan Toua
Reserves:
16. Josh Mann-Rea
17. Allan Alaalatoa
18. Leslie Leulua’iali’i-Makin
19. Tom Staniforth
20. Michael Wells
21. Joe Powell
22. Andrew Smith
23. James Dargaville
24. Lausii Taliauli
(One to be omitted)
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HIGHLANDERS
1. Daniel Lienert-Brown
2. Ash Dixon
3. Josh Hohneck
4. Tom Franklin
5. Luke Whitelock
6. Elliot Dixon
7. Shane Christie
8. Liam Squire
9. Aaron Smith
10. Lima Sopoaga
11. Patrick Osborne
12. Malakai Fekitoa
13. Matt Faddes
14. Waisake Naholo
15. Ben Smith
Reserves
16. Liam Coltman
17. Aki Seiuli
18. Siosiua Halanukonuka
19. Mark Reddish
20. Dan Pryor
21. Te Aihe Toma
22. Fletcher Smith
23. Rob Thompson
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