Opinion

This is a guest piece from G&GR regular Mike D. Take it away and thank you, Mike.

This is an opinion piece, so no doubt others will disagree. They’re fully entitled to their opinions, even though they’re wrong. I’ll start with some facts that are as watertight as I can make them without going to the effort of looking stuff up, i.e. I’m going off my memory of what relevant people have explicitly stated or is somewhere out there available on the public record. For example, referees talking about their experience and ambitions is considered fact; I have assumed they’re not lying. Then I’ll launch into the fraught and dangerous territory of expressing an opinion. Additional facts will be scattered throughout (which will be like fingernails on a chalkboard for anyone with a scientific reporting background); however, mostly it’s just my position.

Facts.

• Referees of games that NZ lose receive disproportionately large amounts of vitriol. This was evident from the RWC2023 final. Wayne Barnes announced his retirement after the match, specifically citing the abuse he received including that he and his wife received death threats. While I don’t know the nationality of the people making those threats, it’s a pretty sure bet they were from the country that lost.
• Referees are human. This is their career and they want to get paid. They also want to referee the highest level of games they can, according to quotes from multiple international referees. They also make mistakes.
• On at least three occasions I can recall, the All Blacks (twice) and Crusaders (once) have been publicly apologised to for a refereeing error that ‘cost them the match’. These all occurred in the lead up to and during the private equity bid for All Blacks ownership.
• The All Blacks are not a sporting team. They are a business asset of NZ Rugby that plays sport, in this case rugby. They have attracted $200 million from private equity backers, Silver Lake.
• NZ Rugby is a very powerful member of the international rugby union ecosystem. They are probably the most powerful in the southern hemisphere, rivalled only by South Africa (their financials are the true greatest rivalry), and significantly overshadow Rugby Australia’s profile.
• Multiple home games by the Wallabies in the last decade have been commented upon within the G&GR community as Australia getting the “rub of the green” etc. These games were against:
  o Italy
  o Fiji
  o Samoa

Conjecture

The All Blacks value is predicated on one thing: they win. Their record is spruiked and there’s an underlying assumption that they’re going to win, especially at Eden Park. From a business point of view that’s the value proposition the All Blacks bring. This is why the apologies to the All Blacks and the AB-adjacent Crusaders were so important during the lead up to the private equity investment. It showed that even when the All Blacks lost, they should’ve/still won. It kept the idea alive that the All Blacks are unbeatable and therefore maximised the value proposition.

This is important because it demonstrates the power and reach of NZRU in the World Rugby hierarchy. Can you ever imagine a ref publicly apologising to the Wallabies? Yeah, me neither. That’s because RA don’t have anywhere near the level of influence. At this juncture, an ill-informed and brainless muttonhead might say, ‘well maybe that’s just never happened to the Wallabies because they’re never good enough’. Such people no doubt need help tying their shoelaces as that comment would display a complete lack of understanding of maths, specifically statistics and probability and, dare I say it, also of rugby.

RA are a much smaller fish than NZRU, but you know who they’re bigger than? Italy, Fiji and Samoa. These were all teams hosted by Australia who were, in the opinion of Australian viewers, treated unfairly. Australia was thought to be given undue advantage by the referee. For reference see multiple comments in the G&GR pages over the years. Importantly, this wasn’t a shrug of the shoulders and, ‘well you win sometimes right’, this was genuine outrage that the game was unfair and it was coming from the fans of the advantaged team, the Wallabies. I think this is because Australians still (mostly) recognise that rugby is just a game and winning is not the be-all and end-all, it really is the spirit of the game that’s important. Except when Beauden Barrett is playing, then smash him (although that may be changing to Cam Roigard).

All of this is pointing out that ‘home ground advantage’ amounts to nothing more than the application of power by the hosting union. Where the hosting union is less powerful, that home ground advantage usually evaporates. I may be wrong but, if so this would be the only industry in the world that I can think of that doesn’t have people leveraging their power, position and wealth for their own benefit. It would be truly remarkable, and probably unique.

The All Blacks take this for granted, at least the players do. Sonny Bill Williams’ comment that ‘all teams get a home ground advantage’ is precisely the statement of assumed privilege. To SBW and co., the mere absence of that when playing away presents as the opposition’s home ground advantage. Think of the angst at the Olympic Sevens when the NZ men lost the final, ‘It’s pretty hard to play when you’re penalised off the park,’ said the losing captain. And the comments about the red card costing the ABs in the RWC final, or rather, the red card decision. For those born to privilege, equality feels like tyranny.

With that context, imagine you’re a referee, one of the best in the world like Piardi (and he is one of the best, even when I disagree with him). Now imagine you’ve been asked if you want to referee a game, one of the most prestigious on the calendar, a Bledisloe Cup match. Do you say yes? Absolutely, this is what you aim for, this is a career highlight.

Normally this game would be a gimme. All Blacks fired up at Eden Park, Wallabies away from home, rabid fans and stadium set up to maximise the psychological edge, and slo-mo insta-replay home-ground advantage. There’s just one niggling problem though. The All Blacks have been, in Sonny Bill Willliams’ words, ‘fragile’ this year, and the Wallabies have been on an upward trajectory. In fact, they’re looking dangerous.

As a very human person, albeit a highly trained referee, there’s a few things going on in the back of your mind.

• If the All Blacks lose because you made a bad call against them, then you can expect to be quietly shuffled down the pecking order. A few phone calls from NZRU saying, ‘You want the All Blacks to show up and bring in the punters? Yeah, maybe old mate shouldn’t be reffing. Ever.’.

• Ditto if a 50/50 call could be construed to have been a bad call that cost the All Blacks a victory, or worse, a string of 50/50 calls.

• There’s the very real possibility that there’s some nutter out there whose death threats aren’t all hot air. Someone might have a go at you or your family because they feel that you cost the All Blacks the game.

So you’re the referee in that situation what do you do? Right, take the safe option, penalty to the All Blacks.

Referees aren’t some Zen Buddhist monks, raised in distant mountain valleys on a pure, harmonious diet of red meat and stout, meditating deeply on the true nature of rugby, though sometimes they seem that good. They’re just blokes who show up to a job they’re passionate about and do the best they can. Frankly, I’m in awe of them for even stepping out there. As human as they are, they’re not immune to outside pressures and they’re definitely keen to keep their careers and lives intact. That pressure comes from the power of the hosting union.

Power and influence are the keys to getting those 50/50 calls, or, as at Eden Park this year, the ’50/50 calls’. That comes right back to the financial status and potential of the business unit behind the teams, not the teams themselves. Improved financial viability and sound, structured business will inevitably lead to more borderline calls falling your way. It won’t change the outcome in an emphatic performance by the away team, like we saw at Ellis Park, but it will change the outcome where there’s enough grey to get away with it, which is about half the time. And at Eden Park, well, it goes up a notch, doesn’t it!

With Waugh now guiding RA and what appears to be a very sensible and adult approach to managing income to promote the game long-term, there may be change in the power balance. The World Cup is coming in two years and Waugh is positioning the code to be a in sustainable and solid financial position. That will have NZRU and the All Blacks scared far more than Bobby V scares them.

If I’m right their response will be predictable and heavy-handed. They’ll make the World Cup as much about the All Blacks as possible. Watch for a massive uptick in brand sales in the lead-up to RWC2027 and advertising about how great NZ rugby is. Yes, that’s something that happens a bit with every World Cup, but this will be proportionate and targeted, even with a touch of smear campaign thrown in about how they’ll ‘crush the Wallabies’. It might not be stated, but it’ll be obvious in the iconography somehow.

If I’m reading the tea leaves right, then RA’s growth to sustainability will be the biggest threat to the All Blacks in years. Phil Waugh was a world-class player but his biggest challenge to the All Blacks has just begun.