It’s that old head versus heart thing. What do you think our chances are of beating the All Blacks in the RWC Final?
As an Australian I’d like to think we’re in with a chance of actually getting into the Final and competing against Sir Richie and the ABs (forget this choking crap — it’s in NZ).
Do we have the team this year to actually make it into the Final and Bring Back Bill? I think it’s a moot point at the moment.
Let’s say we beat the Irish and top our pool. That’ll mean a probable Welsh Quarter-Final. Without dismissing the threat, I can’t see us stumbling at this point. The Welsh have a pretty good side but they’re rebuilding and never seem to travel well. If we progress, it’s a probable date with our England mates in the Semis, although nothing’s a certainty in a knockout tournament.
England seem to be our bogey team of late as we continue to struggle against their physicality and scrummage. One thing’s for sure, they’re a better balanced side than when we took them on in 2007. Winning the Six Nations proved they were the best of the Northern Hemisphere but the lapse against Ireland suggests they have some more work to do.
They’ve got a core of young players like Dan Cole, Alex Corbisiero, Courtney Lawes, Ben Youngs, Chris Ashton and Ben Foden who will be around for many years. They’ve also got enough backline talent this time around to complement a torrid forward pack, whose set piece work is of the highest quality.
I’d be real concerned because I haven’t seen anything in Super Rugby that suggest we’ve addressed our scrummaging issues. Our nominal top province, NSW, packed with Wallabies, is again under-performing. Well beaten by Canterbury, the scrum was an embarrassment. It might have improved last week but winning a penalty try against a lowly Waikato eight is hardly earth-shattering stuff. And don’t mention the Cheetahs — oh sorry, did I? Apart from TPN (when he’s on the park), Drew Mitchell and KB, what Wallaby Waratah has been playing well?
Ben Alexander is starting to look competent for the Brumbies but he’s again employed on the wrong side and the Reds scrum has been under pressure in virtually every match against foreign opposition. Physicality has also been a problem for Australian sides. Whom have we dominated at the ruck? The Hurricanes?
We’ll get more of an idea this weekend when the Reds take on the Stormers in Cape Town. They’re just starting to get into gear but they’ve yet to play a top quality Kiwi or South African side. As for the rest, they won’t be putting the fear of God into anybody and will finish well off the pace.
So far, it seems to me that the Stormers and the Crusaders are the benchmark. The Crusaders are looking menacing and you’d think quite a few of their players will form the backbone of the All Blacks squad. The midfield is carving them up, and what wouldn’t we give for that tight five?
What I’m trying to get at is that Super Rugby is an indicator of international form and I think some of those New Zealand sides are again looking better than ours.
When did we last beat the All Blacks in New Zealand? It was on the 11 August 2001 in Dunedin. Sorry, when was that again? 11 August 2001. A decade ago in the days of Roff, Larkham, Gregan, Eales, Finnigan and Kefu. Eleven straight lost matches since.
So, we’re just going to rock up and take the RWC off them? What makes you think that this year is any different to the previous ten?
The last time they won the RWC was at Eden Park in 1987. Choke? They didn’t then and I can’t see them doing it now. The whole country will be behind them. More importantly, they have the team to do it.
What was that old Bob Dwyer adage about needing X number of world class players in your team to win the RWC? If you were picking a world side today how many Kiwis would be hovering around it? More importantly, how many Wallabies? Nuff said.
Ah you say, we beat them in Hong Kong. Surely we did, in an exhibition game long after the Bledisloe Cup and Tri-Nations Trophy were secured. And make no mistake about it, it was an exhibition game.
I wouldn’t want to write South Africa off but they’re an aging side who’ll have to make personnel changes to improve their chances. I’m not sure P Divvy is up for that.
Yep, my money’s on the All Blacks. I can’t see that changing too much in the months to come, can you?
Money where your mouth is: I’m putting a hundred bucks on that!
