Round Three of the Super Rugby season continues at AAMI this Saturday, when the Melbourne Rebels play host to the ACT Brumbies. Both teams are one from one and are looking to set the early pace in the highly-competitive Australian Conference.
Last week
In Round Two both teams were involved in close matches against quality opposition, only to falter in the last ten minutes of their matches. The Brumbies had a strong kicking game and used field position well to set up the forwards. The pack produced a decent set piece and mauled with good effect (including for Vaea’s try).
The Rebels played physically and applied the blowtorch at the scrum and the breakdown. They even forced errors that led to scoring opportunities. But handling errors and some lapses in concentration gave a fairly slick Waratah back line the right opportunities to capitalise on.
The Teams
The Brumbies have a star-studded back line brimming with talent and will pose a massive headache for the Rebels’ defence. Matt Toomua will look to use his experience against the inexperienced Jack Debreczeni , but the battle of the centres will be a tougher contest. Kuridrani was quiet last week and Ellison may look to exploit this. Lealiifano has found his kicking mojo and will punish ill-discipline on the scoreboard. This match sees the return of ‘Squeaky’ Moore to the starting team: a great boost for Australian Rugby.
The Rebels boast a strong defensive record and have demonstrated some bone-rattling hits in both matches. The key to shutting down the Brumbies’ backs will be a strong defensive line that can withhold the barrage and force turnover ball. The forward pack have played with raw intensity and set the platform to score three out of the four tries last weekend.
Some work needs to be done at the lineout but the scrum is starting to click. Whilst the Brumbies have a formidable pack, I think the Rebels edge them in the back row with Higginbotham, McMahon and Fainga’a/Fugistaller.
Key Match-ups
There are a few to pick from, but these are the ones that stand out for me.
Timani v Fardy
Lopeti Timani has made a strong start to the Super Rugby season and will be looking to stamp his authority on the game. Standing in his way will be Scott Fardy; one tough customer, who will give him no favours around the paddock. Fardy’s experience will be a tough assignment for Timani’s raw power and I think this battle can set the tempo for the breakdown. The physicality both men bring will be a spectacle in itself.
Burgess v White
The battle of the scrumhalves will also be notable: the apprentice in Nic White and the seasoned master in Luke Burgess. Nic has a reasonable game last week with good service both with pass and boot. Luke was the dominant Australian scrummie in Round Two, playing some wonderful Rugby that included a try from a well-executed move. Look for some niggle from the little guys this week.
Player to watch – Toby Smith
Toby is one of those quiet toilers who does his job – the little things on the field – with aplomb. Not only was his effort against Kepu and Ryan at scrum time great to watch, but he also proved to be a mobile brick wall at the breakdown. This man is on the up in Australian Rugby.
Fearless Prediction
At the same match last year many had written off the Rebels, however they stunned the Brumbies with a come-from-behind win.
If the Brumbies control the ball in the back line and remain patient they may pile on quick points. If the Rebels play a smart forwards game and use the backs to finish off they are in for a shot. Dave Rennie of the Chiefs out-coached Steve Larkham last week; maybe Tony McGahan can do the same.
This match could go down to the wire, so in the that case I’m tipping a close Rebels win.
Rebels by 3
Rebels v Brumbies
 |  | 
|
|---|---|---|
| Toby Smith | 1 | Scott Sio |
| Pat Leafa | 2 | Stephen Moore (c) |
| Laurie Weeks | 3 | Ben Alexander |
| Luke Jones | 4 | Rory Arnold |
| Lopeti TImani | 5 | Sam Carter |
| Sean McMahon | 6 | Scott Fardy |
| Colby Fainga'a | 7 | Jarrad Butler |
| Scott Higginbotham | 8 | Ita Vaea |
| Nic Stirzaker | 9 | Nic White |
| Jack Debreczeni | 10 | Matt Toomua |
| Tom English | 11 | Joe Tomane |
| Mitch Inman | 12 | Christian Lealiifano |
| Tamati Ellison | 13 | Tevita Kuridrani |
| Dom Shipperley | 14 | Henry Speight |
| Mike Harris | 15 | Robbie Coleman |
| Reserves | ||
| Ben Whittaker | 16 | Josh Mann-Rea |
| Cruze Ah-Nau | 17 | Ruan Smith |
| Paul Alo-Emile | 18 | JP Smith |
| Sam Jeffries | 19 | Blake Enever |
| Scott Fuglistaller | 20 | Jordan Smiler |
| Luke Burgess | 21 | Michael Dowsett |
| Bryce Hegarty | 22 | James Dargaville |
| Sefanaia Naivalu | 23 | Jesse Mogg |
| Location: | AAMI Park, Melbourne | |
| Kickoff: | Sat 28 Feb 19:40 | |
| Referee: | Steve Walsh | |
| Assistant Ref 1: | James Leckie | |
| Assistant Ref 2: | Ed Martin | |
| TMO : | Peter Marshall |
