Australia v. Wales Preview

The Wallabies play Wales on Saturday as they attempt to make up for a humiliating loss. Luckily we’ve been in this position plenty of times under Robbie Deans so you would suggest this may be something we have built into our rugby DNA.

The Welsh have brought their A-team, and I dare say this is the strongest Northern Hemisphere side we have had on our shores since the 2003 World Cup. They are Six Nations champions and are brimming with confidence. With only one major loss due to injury (damaging centre Jamie Roberts) they fancy their chances of recording their first win on Aussie soil since 1969, and rightfully so.

The front row is an imposing unit, with experienced hands Jones and Jenkins complemented by young hooker Ken Owens. The Wallabies will need to be on their game at the set piece as these blokes have been dominant throughout the 6N (although Owens is seen as the second or third choice 2 behind Matthew Rees). The second row is solid, however the real strength of the Welsh lies in the backrow, who can lay claim to being the best backrow unit in the world at the moment. Lydiate, Warburton and Faletau are a dynamic combination, the perfect mix between hard work in tight and powerful running in the loose. If they get into gear early it could be a long night. The one thing in our favour is their relative inexperience in the Southern Hemisphere and in Australia specifically.

In the backline the visitors once again boast a wealth of talent. Phillips and Priestland combined brilliantly throughout the World Cup and continued that form into the European winter. From there the defining characteristic is size. While Roberts is forced out with injury, his replacement is 101kg Scott Williams. Outside centre Davies, and wingers Cuthbert and North also chalk up three figures on the scales. These boys are big, but are hardly lumbering and cumbersome. North is one of the games hottest prospects, and watch out for young gun Ashley beck coming off the bench late in the game.

Turning to the locals, I am frankly not quite sure what to expect. On one hand we are playing at Fortress Suncorp and should be fired up to make up for the midweek embarrassment at Newcastle. We have introduced some fresh blood, and the pack looks that little bit more solid with the addition of Robinson, Simmons and Palu. Surely they will be right up for it.

But then my mind turns to the negatives — a four-day back-up for a large part of the team, a few of whom played the weekend before that… add that the backline that is missing six players whom you would probably select in your 22 (Cooper, JOC, Beale, Mitchell, Lealiifano and Tapuai) and things start to look a bit worse. Pocock’s captaincy is looking shaky and Genia had a shocker on Tuesday.

The team selected by Robbie looks pretty solid under the circumstances. People were bitching about the high number of Waratahs, but  I consider only Rob Horne to be undeserving. Berrick isn’t a great 10 but he’s all we have at the moment; same with Palu at 8 (Higgers showed on Tuesday he isn’t a Test-quality 8 yet). In the end he has picked a pretty good XV, and while you could argue for a few changes they wouldn’t really make too much difference.

So now we come to Saturday. Where can the Wallabies attack Wales? It is clear to me that they will attempt to play a high-tempo game, with a ball-running forward pack and a lightweight backline. With that in mind the key player once again is Genia. We simply can’t afford for him to be off the boil, as the creative juices outside him are seriously limited. I would love a couple of early snipes around the breakdown to keep their forwards on their heels, and then marshalling Higgers, Palu and Sharpe around the rucks. In defence it will be up to Barnes and McCabe to set a fast linespeed to limit the space of their wide giants, and ensure the back three rarely get their hands on the pill.

In short we need to do the basics well — something that has been a hallmark of our recent efforts against the Welsh. It can’t be that hard, can it?

That said, I’m tipping the Welsh. It should be tight but they have the class, size and skill on paper to break their Aussie drought. Wales by 5.

Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Kick-off 8pm AEST.

Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Keith Brown (New Zealand), Garratt Williamson (New Zealand)
Television match official: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)

Who are you tipping?