Almost exactly four months ago, I looked at the likely contenders for the Wallabies World Cup squad. With the impending announcement, it’s worth comparing the then to the now.
Emphasis on likely. This isn’t who I would choose.
In any squad, it won’t just be about individuals, but balance. Will the Wallabies take 18 forwards and 13 backs, or 17 and 14? (I think the former, based on Cheika’s focus at the Waratahs.) Tournament regulations say that injured players can either be carried until they recover, or definitely replaced. They can’t be replaced for a few weeks by an out of squad player and then return. Last time, injuries saw Radike Samo trot out on the wing against the USA, so it’s more than an academic question.
On this point, the selections at lock, backrow, and outside back will be linked, as we will see below, so I’ll put the running total in parentheses after each section. 31 is the magic number.
It’s worth also noting that Paul Alo-Emile aside, not a single player likely to make the squad, let alone one of the stand-outs, has had a season-ending injury. That hasn’t been the case in Australian rugby in a long, long time – think Will Genia, David Pocock (twice), James Horwill, etc – and it isn’t the case for most other teams out there right now. Let’s all hope that stays the same and that Rob Simmons makes a speedy recovery from his wrist issue.
Prop
In terms of personnel, the major change here has been the usurping (for now) of James Slipper, G&GR’s 2014 Player of the Season, by Scott Sio. There’s plenty of rumours about Slipper playing with injury; certainly he’s not quite producing the unique high-mobility game that was such a feature of last season.
Elsewhere, Paul Alo-Emile suffered a season-ending injury. With a 23 man matchday squad instead of the old 22, the World Cup squad size was expanded to 31. I expect every team will take 5 props and some may even take 6; the Argies took 5 last time and will be carrying a half-crocked Ramiro Herrera to the Cup.
The fifth prop spot will therefore go down to either Toby Smith or Tetera Faulkner. If Slipper’s injury issues need careful management, Smith will get it. If not, Faulkner will, with Holmes relied upon as loosehead cover (though back in the day both Kepu and Slipper played more than a bit on the other side of the scrum).
Four months ago: Slipper, Sio, Kepu, Holmes, Alo-Emile
Likely Now: Slipper, Sio, Kepu, Holmes, Smith/Faulkner (5)
Hooker
Coach Michael Cheika set out his stall pretty early here: Moore as number 1, Polota-Nau as number 2, and James Hanson at 3. Given Hanson has had no game time, there’s nothing to think that this pecking order won’t stay the same. World Cup squads almost always feature three hookers.
Four months ago: Moore, Polota-Nau, Faingaa
Likely Now: Moore, Polota-Nau, Hanson (8)
Lock
The first obvious problem area. Traditionally, teams have either taken four locks or three out-and-out locks and a 6/lock.
You can make some sort of case for everyone who has played lock for the Wallabies in 2015. Rob Simmons is probably the only 100% certainty. The lineout has suffered without him. Fans should be concerned that the one area of the Waratahs’ game that was consistently poor during Cheika’s tenure is suddenly looking like an Achilles’ heel again.
Whether in signing or selecting players, Cheika’s decisions suggest that he doesn’t see the lineout as a priority. This is concerning: the lineout is logically just as important as scrums in maintaining possession, it’s just as much of a contest, and there are (usually) more of them in a game than scrums. Both in Auckland and in Sydney, the Wallabies won hard-earned penalties, kicked into the 22, and repeatedly just released the pressure valve with really poor lineout options. Major concern.
Elsewhere at lock, James Horwill offers the all-round, classic option, Will Skelton the physicality, Dean Mumm the work rate. Even Kane Douglas’ 18 minute cameo suggested that if he’d stayed in Australia, he’d likely have secured a spot well before now. He may have left his run a bit too late.
Who gets picked here will affect the options elsewhere, particularly in the outside backs. However, I wouldn’t be completely surprised if Cheika decides to pick Mumm essentially as a six and take the other four locks here.
Four months ago: Simmons, Coleman, Skelton, An Other
Likely Now: Simmons, Horwill, Skelton, Douglas (12)
Backrow
If there’s one thing we know about Michael Cheika, it’s that he values experience. He fought hard to get Drew Mitchell and Matt Giteau back from France and promptly put them back in the Wallaby set-up immediately. See also Dean Mumm and even Kane Douglas. But the real tell is his time at the Waratahs. Relatively few youngsters have developed into Super Rugby players over the past three years there.
Many of the few who did – think Michael Hooper, Israel Folau – would surely have come through with any coach. Instead, Cheika relied heavily on veterans. Matt Carraro, Stephen Hoiles, Mitch Chapman – these guys were core members of the 23 week to week. Younger or less experienced guys like Jono Lance, Jed Hollaway, or Tala Grey never got a serious look-in (13 – mostly from the bench, 4, and 2 caps respectively over 2014-15).
I think there’s a clear pattern here, though of course there are exceptions. For that reason, I think we’ll see Mumm and Palu picked over, say, Sean McMahon. Palu actually did some good stuff on Saturday, despite the haters’ wrath. But in terms of an 80 minute performance, that’s just not realistic any more. If you gamble with a 6-2 bench to cover that stuff, eventually you’ll lose, end up having to slot Michael Hooper in at 12, and have only yourself to blame. Cheika’s shown a lot of faith in Palu over the years and I’m not sure that’s about to end
Four months ago: Pocock, Hooper, Palu, McCalman, Fardy, McMahon
Likely Now: Pocock, Hooper, Palu, McCalman, Fardy, Mumm (18)
Scrum-half
Cheika must be tempted by the option of taking only two 9s and keeping Matt Giteau as the third. I don’t need to outline why this would be a risky strategy, only to point out that playing at 12 Giteau has been very, very good for the Wallabies this year. One typically classy play in Auckland saw him make a huge tackle on Julian Savea on one side of the field and then, the very next phase, another covering tackle on the opposite sideline. Special stuff from a special player. We need to shape the backline around him, not the other way around.
Four months ago: Phipps, Genia, White
Likely Now: Phipps, Genia, White (21)
Playmakers
On Friday, Cheika told reporters, “When [Cooper] was selected [for Bledisloe II] I spoke to him and said ‘there’s nothing to prove here this is not some type of test for you, this is about you doing your job for the team.’ Those guys, I’ve always spoken to them about their role going into this series and the World Cup as well. I’ve been quite open about the fact they’re coming – him and (Bernard) Foley.”
That would seem to be that. Australian fans will be praying that both guys can play themselves into some form against the US and Uruguay in coming weeks.
Four months ago: Foley, Cooper, Toomua, Giteau/Godwin
Likely Now: Foley, Cooper, Toomua, Giteau (25)
Outside Backs
More than a few of the slots here were wide open four months ago and none of the major contenders for them have put their hand up in a clear “pick me” way. To be fair, they haven’t had a lot of opportunities.
Podcast listeners will know I think Henry Speight has a big future. When he subbed in for Tevita Kuridrani at 13 for the Brumbies earlier this year, he stepped up. In fact, he looked best in precisely those areas – tackling, constant involvement, rucking – that he has to do relatively little of out on the wing. Injury, suspension, World Rugby regulations; they’ve all conspired to restrict his opportunities. Then, on Saturday, we couldn’t get him the ball and then he had to get subbed when Quade Cooper tried to take Aaron Smith’s head off.
I think Cheika will go with what he knows here: Rob Horne, Kurtley Beale, and the experienced Drew Mitchell. Joe Tomane and Speight to miss out. If only five backrowers are selected, or Mumm is among the four locks and Douglas misses out, however, then I think Henry makes the plane and Joe is the unlucky one.
Four months ago: Kuridrani, Folau, Ashley-Cooper, Speight, O’Connor, Horne and/or Cummins
Likely Now: Kuridrani, Folau, Ashley-Cooper, Beale, Mitchell, Horne (31)
