CAS 2015 Season Preview

One of the best things about the Associated Schools Rugby competition is how even it is – over the last seven years, five of the six schools have claimed the Plume Shield.

Generally, the schools with the most players and the best resources do well, but any school that can muster a talented group of players in one age group has a decent shot.

This year’s competition looks close, too – the kind in which any team can beat any other on the right day. There is, a standout favourite for the title – Knox – but the other sides look fairly even to me, and there could be plenty of upsets over the ten rounds.

Which is another way of saying, the predictions that follow could be completely and utterly wrong.

Barker

With three Premierships in the last five years, Barker has been the most successful of the Associated Schools in recent seasons. It has a good coaching set-up, a solid Rugby culture and a large pool of players. But every school finds that, some years, the strength of the Open age group is slightly below the usual expectation, and this looks like being one of those years for Barker.

Which is not to say that Barker will be a poor side. Prop Tim Anstey and back-rower Simon Pursell are standouts in the forwards, centre Andrew Saar is promising, fly-half Andrew Thompson has First XV experience from last year, and Sean Hasegawa is an exciting runner.

But, overall, the quality of the personnel is a little down on Barker’s very high recent standards, and in what promises to be a very even 2015 competition, Barker is likely to struggle. They’ll be fit, disciplined and committed, but it’s hard to see them finishing in the top half of the table.

Trial form: Improving after a slow start. Heavy losses to Oakhill and St Stanislaus were partly redeemed by better form on tour in Queensland.

Prediction: Struggling for 5th

Cranbrook

Having waited twenty years to get its hands on the Plume Shield, Cranbrook thoroughly deserved its success in 2014. It will be a tough act to repeat, but Cranbrook retains the core of a strong side and should press for a respectable place on the table in 2015.

Last season’s success was built upon a dominant forward pack and, although no-one remains from the excellent back row, representative props Tom Hill (outstanding last season) and Zah Rathie, lead an uncompromising tight five together with lock and captain Will Stenmark. Cranbrook still seems to be sorting out its best back row, although flanker Oskar Szangolies has done well in the trials and the massive Andrew Spira (not yet a first choice) has real potential if his discipline improves.

The backline, too, is a work in progress: it will involve some combination of full-back Tom Wilson, wing Felix Studdy and centres Harry Stewart and Angus McNiven. Maybe centre Ed Renton will feature, too, although his repeated injuries are a concern. If Cranbrook keeps its error rate low, finds the right combination in the backs and recaptures the enthusiasm and confidence of 2014, it should enjoy a solid season.

Trial form: Unconvincing. A 30-3 win over St Pius X was followed by a loss to Shore, a 7-71 pounding at the hands of Oakhill, and more heavy defeats on tour in New Zealand.

Prediction: Fighting for 3rd

Knox

Over the last few years, Knox has made a heavy investment in its Rugby programme, and this should be the season when that translates into results at the First XV level. I have never really understood why supporters of other schools have been so quick to criticise Knox for providing its players with sophisticated coaching and top-class facilities: offering opportunities to excel is what private schools are meant to do, and if Knox has deeper resources than some other schools, that’s life.

The many people who have criticised Knox for engaging Matt Williams seems to have overlooked the fact that, before he was a professional Rugby coach, he was a professional schoolteacher – which seems to be a desirable combination of skills for a school Rugby coach.

Knox doesn’t have quite the star quality of last year’s team, which had absolute standouts in Jimmy Widders-Leece and Connor Watson. But they do the basics very well, at pace, and it’s hard to spot a weakness.

Matt Williams 2005 – Coach of Scotland

The pack is big, fit and mobile, and back-rower Lachlan Swinton, No8 Milan Basson and lock Hugh Margin look especially threatening. They’re strong at the scrum and lineout, and aggressive at the breakdown. It’s unlikely that many sides will hustle much ball away from Knox this season.

The backs are less intimidating, though centres James Armstrong and Joe Williams and full-back Leo Bosch have shown excellent form and there’s speed out wide (with David Stenning looking very dangerous). Bosch’s goal kicking is increasingly reliable. This year’s competition looks like the most even for years, but Knox begins as clear favourite to lift its first Plume Shield since 2009 because of the all-round strength of its team and the quality of its preparation.

Trial form: Ominous. A 48-17 win over St Joseph’s, a solid draw with St Augustine’s and a workmanlike win over St Patrick’s.

Prediction: 1st