Last weekend was a great reminder why the RBS Six Nations is the premier tournament in the northern hemisphere. We were treated to seeing shades of a young O’Driscoll, but this time wearing an electric blue jersey. We were also witness to a titanic clash in Paris where the ball was in play for an astonishing 46 minutes. At the same time, we also saw the Scottish side unable to ask questions of the Irish defense, and a Wales team performing well below the level we all know they are capable of reaching.
So, what’s in the bag for this weekend?
Scotland v. England
The Forwards
The Scottish forwards did not perform well last weekend, to put it bluntly. Prop Murray Lowe was abused for most of the match, to the tune of losing 2 out of their 5 scrums, and was completely anonymous in the loose. The entire Scottish line out was malfunctioning, as has seemingly been the norm for them over the past few months. Even with a tall back row, and the human albatross Jim Hamilton, the Scottish pack lost a shameful 5 of their 15 line outs. Until these issues are amended there is really little hope for the Scottish side as a whole. While winning with a lower possession percentage seems to have come in vogue over the past year, giving free ball to the opposition at one out of every three set pieces is an entirely different approach to the game of rugby.
Once again the Scots leaned on Dave Denton to create go-forward for the rest of the team, and once again this one-dimensional strategy did not pan out. Denton carried 13 times for less than 35 meters. Denton being bundled into touch by several Irish players at the beginning of the match more or less sums up how this strategy worked out on the field.
Scott Johnson could take notes from how Stuart Lancaster used his entire back row to shoulder the burden of ball carrying throughout the match. This meant that when their danger man Billy Vunipola actually got the ball the defense hadn’t already collapsed on him before he even received the pass. England are a bit spoiled at the number 8 position at the moment though, Ben Morgan was a fantastic substitution in Paris.
This week Scott Johnson has dropped his captain Kelly Brown from the starting lineup and replaced him with youngster Chris Fusaro. Greg Laidlaw will take over the captaincy duties from the scrumhalf position. Brown was very quiet last weekend so this isn’t necessarily a shocking change.
The English pack hunt just as a pack of wolves would, rarely hitting rucks alone and making great use of their time in the gym by getting low, binding and driving over the ball. Dylan Hartley will be eager to improve on his game last week, where he was relatively quiet. That said, he is still an absolutely excellent line out thrower, which will come in handy against the struggling Scottish set piece. Some throws to the back pod after the first two or three line outs wouldn’t surprise me.
The English scrum wasn’t as dominant as they would have liked last weekend, conceding twice to the experienced French front row. Sadly, I reckon the scrum will be a bit of a lottery this weekend, even though England will have the edge going into the game. Murrayfield is currently looking like a stereotypical Scottish bog, not a rugby pitch.
The Backs
If Owen Farrell can work to build off of his opening stanza last weekend I actually may have to change my opinion on him. Those of you that read the forums regularly know that I’m very, very far from being a fan of his. But, last weekend he opened the game playing and running the ball with confidence, giving Luther Burrell and Jack Nowell space to run into. England needs to see more of this from him, it is very hard to score tries into today’s international scene if your 10 isn’t asking questions of the defense and holding back the jockey defense.
Johnny May will be looking forward to, hopefully, staying on the field for the entire test this time around. He’s shown great promise at the premiership level and the English back line was missing his pace when Alex Goode came on. I’m sure Mike Brown will also be crossing his fingers that he actually gets to play fullback, for once.
Billy Twelvetrees once again looked out of his depth at international level against France. His defense was actually better than I thought it would be, missing 2 of 10 attempted tackles. Not amazing, but not terrible either. On attack though, he has failed to provide the second play-maker option which he was brought into the team for. He seems indecisive and ends up taking space away from the danger runners outside of him. He will need to either start distributing the ball with more confidence, or just start pinning his ears back and attempt to make space on the next phase.
For Scotland, Matt Scott is starting again, which is a big positive for them. He looked great in South Africa last year and the Scottish backs desperately need a real danger man in the midfield. Last weekend it looked like Scotland could have held onto the ball for the entire 80 minutes and not scored. On the other hand, I’m not sure if persisting with Lamont on the wing is the best idea. He is solid defensively, as he should be, he’s a big man. But on attack he is just far too slow to be playing wing at the international level, he has a scoring record that would bring shame to some back row forwards. Whether this is a reflection of his ability, or the fact that Scotland often struggles to move the ball and penetrate the line is a philosophical question for another day.
23-year old Edinburgh winger Dougie Fife will make his debut off of the bench, although there are rumblings in Scotland that he should have been given the starting berth over Lamont. He’s been in great form for his club recently, scoring 5 tries in his last 7 games.
The Prediction
I’m not even sure if this Scottish team will be able to turn this into an arm-wrestle like they tend to do, there is just too much between the two teams right now. England are on the rise, and will be stung by that last minute loss in Paris. Scotland are on a seemingly endless spiral into mediocrity and just didn’t do anything last weekend that makes me think they will somehow come out on top, even at home. The pitch turning into a bog is generally a good thing for Scotland but this English pack plays very, very well together.
Even if the pitch makes the game a mud wrestling contest the English should dominate Scotland in a territory game, given the malfunctioning of the Scottish set piece.
England by 10+, 5+ if the pitch starts to fall apart
France v. Italy
The Forwards
Being rewarded for his game-winning break last weekend, Dimitri Szarzewski comes into the French front row at number 2. While Dimitri does not scrummage as well as his counterpart Kayser, he is very dynamic in the loose and has shown this many times before. As a whole the French pack did struggle a bit last weekend to maintain a level of dynamism in their ball carrying. The Italian scrum is noticeably weaker than it used to be, without the presence of Lo Cicero. For these reasons I wholeheartedly agree with this selection. De Marchi will be coming into loosehead as a replacement for Michele Rizzo, with the clear intention of stabilizing the scrum.
In the locks Yoann Maestri will replace Alexandre Flanquart, who failed to stamp his mark against England. Maestri is a proven performer for Les Bleus at test level, who has grown and improved his game since helping France to win the championship in 2010. Sebastian Vahaamahina comes onto the bench. At only 22 years old he is an absolutely massive unit, a bit like Will Skelton. I will be looking forward to seeing how he gets on against Italy.
A big blow to the Italian pack will be the absence of Alessandro Zanni, who suffered a broken nose last weekend. He’s a very good player that I truly believe would walk on to many test sides. He will be replaced by the physically impressive Francesco Minto. The break may be good for Zanni though, he played below his usual standard last weekend.
While he didn’t get the stability at the base of the scrum that he is used to, Parisse demonstrated once against in Cardiff that he really is the Ferarri of international backrows. He is the heart and soul of that Italian team, carrying a ridiculous 22 times against Wales. Hopefully he will have recovered well over the week, he is mesmerizing to watch.
Louis Picamoles is the freight train to Parisse’s Ferrari. Against a slightly weaker pack I would expect him to start showing some more of the barging runs and flashy offloads he manages in the Top 14. There are a lot of talented number 8s in the Six Nations this year, and he is definitely one of the best.
The Backs
How good was Campagnaro last weekend? He played like a man who has closer to 30 caps (and a load of talent), not 3. He was rock solid in defense and dangerous on every attacking touch, he was probably the single best 13 in the tournament last weekend. The match-up between Campagnaro and Bastareaud will be a treat to watch. One fleet footed, razzle-dazzle center facing off against a stout ball of French muscle and rage. England showed that if you rush up on Bastareaud it is far easier to shut him down (slow service from the base made this very easy for them though), but if he gets a few meters to get rolling he is incredibly difficult to stop. But, if Campagnaro gets around Mathieu, he has the pace to gas the entire French back line.
Brice Dulin and Yohann Huget retain their starting berth, as they should. The kick chase out of these two last weekend was just phenomenal. While there were a lot of attacking kicks last weekend, I think the French did it the best. Both of these players chased without fear each and every time, and they reaped the rewards of it. As I said last week, Medard is the animus of French rugby, and he was far more France v. Tonga than he was France v. New Zealand last weekend. He has rightly been dropped for Hugo Bonneval, who plays fullback for his club Stade Francais.
Both Tomasso Allan and Jules Plisson were solid last weekend without being spectacular. Both are young, highly billed players so their match up should be a good one. Who will come out on top?
Jean-Marc Doussain must improve on his performance last weekend, France could have put that game away much earlier had he provided quicker and more concise service from the base of the ruck. His indecision cost them scoring opportunities last weekend, and in test rugby there is just no room for mistakes like this. It is very hard for a team to get going if their 9 is not maintaining the tempo of play. If he does not pick up his level of play this weekend I could easily see him being dropped when French media darling Morgan Parra comes back from injury.
The Prediction
Italy will fight hard, and showed last weekend that they are far improved from where they were before the last Rugby World Cup, but Les Bleus in Paris is a monumental task. The biggest points of difference for the French will be the scrum and the back lines, especially the back lines. As a whole the French back line and bench is just much stronger than their Italian equivalent. The French pack will look to spoil the Italian ball at each ruck, where they should be successful in doing so as long as the referee doesn’t start choking on his whistle.
France by 10+
Ireland v. Wales
This is the big fish this weekend. The winner of this match could easily go on to claim the Grand Slam if Wales are able to come out of their shell, and if Ireland are able to maintain and build on their current form.
The Forwards
The battle between Adam Jones and Cian Healy at the scrum will be immense. Two of the best props in the world at their respective positions facing off is always a treat for the rugby tragics amongst us. Although there are rumors that Jones may be wearing a scrum cap to cover a laceration on his head sustained last weekend. Perhaps this is another ingenious ploy by Gatland to destabilize the Irish pack by forcing them into hysterics at every set piece. Hibbard and Best will also be another great face off, although between two players with contrasting styles. Best likes to grind, working endlessly from ruck to ruck while Hibbard is a much more explosive player on both sides of the ball. Gethin Jenkins back also speaks well for the solidarity of the Welsh front row.
The Irish talisman Paul O’Connell has returned, which should be a great boost for the Irish team as a whole. Dan Tuohy didn’t really set a foot wrong last weekend, but Toner has likely gotten the nod given his ability to soar at line out time. These intermittent appearances by O’Connell over the last year or two does make you wonder how much longer he can actually keep this up for, though. Who knows, he may well be playing rugby long after I stop, and I’m only 23. I expect a bit of niggle between O’Connell and Disney villain Alun-Wyn Jones at some point in the match. They are two big, passionate men.
Faletau v. Heaslip will also be another interesting match up. The two men play a similar style at number 8, high work rate, lots of work on the ground but not necessarily the strongest ball carriers or most dominant tacklers on the field. They do both get through mountains of work though, that is undeniable. I expect them to butt heads at quite a few rucks, they were both successful in that department last weekend.
The Warburton/Lydiate combination will be back for Wales, but how effective will it be? Captain Tackles definitely hasn’t had the same impact recently that he showed in previous 6 Nations tournament and which Sam Warburton will show up is also a bit of a mystery. They will be pressed well by the high work rate of Chris Henry and the ever-improving tight game of Peter O’Mahony.
The Backs
Ireland have made the decision to go with a more settled and more defensively oriented midfield for this game by bringing Gordon D’Arcy at 12. The Sexton-D’Arcy-O’Driscoll partnership is generally solid defensively and will be a good counter to the giant backs and fowards that Gatland-ball likes to send down the inside channels. If these three can combine to stop the Welsh from getting easy good-forward the Irish may just pull this one out.
I don’t think there’s much to say about the Welsh outside backs that hasn’t already been said many times before. North is just a monster of a human being and Halfpenny is a great custodial fullback who is pretty nifty on attack as well, although he’s no Izzy Folau. Alex Cuthbert is another great finisher, but he has a tendency to make schoolboy mistakes on defense, will Kearney or Trimble be able to take advantage of this? Rob Kearney looked more confident under the high ball last weekend than he has in recent times, and for the sake of Ireland this needs to continue. Priestland will not hesitate to hoist midfield bombs for Dr. Jaw, North, and Cuthbert to chase if he senses any vulnerability in the Irish back three.
Scott Williams will have his hands full with Brian O’Driscoll and he will have to be careful about isolating himself in contact. O’Driscoll is phenomenally good scavenging for the ball and the Welsh had issues last weekend with their support not being where it needed to be at times, on both sides of the ball.
I’d say Sexton is pretty clear and away the better number 10 in this game. He was in great form last weekend and looked brimming with confidence throughout the match. Priestland wasn’t anywhere near the lows he reached Down Under in 2012, but his game still isn’t where it was in the last Rugby World Cup. The battle between the two big number 9s, Murray and Philips will be a good one to keep an eye on as well.
The Prediction
The bottom line here is that both teams are going into this game with very capable sides, and both are likely to win. Establishing a stable scrum from the first whistle will be key for Ireland in establishing field position and a solid tempo. The Irish pack should also look out for opportunities in a Welsh line out that can be its own worst enemy at times. The fruits of Joe Schmidts coaching seem to be coming to bear though, while this Welsh side is fighting to get back to where they know they should be.
Ireland by 3+
