As we get to the end of the Super Rugby season, the numbers are such that we can start to look at differences between the candidates for Wallaby positions in terms of stats, and from them draw a long bow conclusions.
Yes, ‘stats aren’t everything’ I hear you say – but if you think coaches from all sides aren’t looking at them carefully, you’re deluded.
As our first cab off the rank we’ve pulled the position perhaps most hotly contested in Wallabies (has it ever not been?) – Openside Flanker. Let see if these numbers can shift any entrenched positions….
Attack
I’m guessing there are no surprises here. Michael Hooper is on his own – probably in world rugby – as a ball running forward. All of the attacking stats above come with Hooper actually running fewer times per match (7.3) than any of his peers; Gill 7.8, Pocock 8.6 and Hodgson 8.7.
The common refrain is “that’s not what opensides are for”, but when you’re fourth in the whole Australian conference for Line Breaks as well as Tackle Busts, it’s a skill set that’s hard to ignore in a game of tough modern defences.
Defence
There’s so much in these numbers it’s hard to know where to start, but the killer chart has to be the turnovers forced chart. Here we see a reverse of Hooper’s attacking dominance and according to Foxpsports stats, he hardly troubles the scorer. Pocock and Gill prove themselves the scavengers and it’s interesting to see the differences in how Gill tends to take the ball away, whereas Pocock’s low based strength earns him penalties.
The tackles per game show the leading candidates to be neck and neck, the hard working Matt Hodgson out in front. What these stats won’t show though, are the roles the candidates play in defence. Hooper leads the Waratahs line in their aggressive defence, often leading to a turnover in one or two breakdown’s time. Pocock is at home waiting for the big ball runners to come at him, ready to pounce.
The tie breaker, and surprise package to me is the penalty count. Here Hodgson is blown out of the water, and Pocock comes through with almost half the penalties of Hooper or Gill. This is a major advantage – to be so hard on the ball and yet yielding so few penalties is quite astonishing.
The choice
Hooper and Pocock are freaks – the former in attack, the latter as a scavenger. Gill, while only just behind, is consistently shaded by Pocock across the board. If you’re after a pilferer, Poey is the man.
And that’s the essential question these stats can never answer – what role does the Wallaby Openside need to fulfil?
With the breakdown so important in modern rugby, whatever Hooper and the Waratahs have been doing, it clearly works – a championship win last year followed by at least a finals appearance in 2015. But will the Wallabies be able to impose the same breakdown pace at an international level?
I’m thinking not, and if there’s anything those big northern runners fear most it’s Poey shelling candy from babies on every other hit-up. The clincher though, are those penalty stats – or lack of them against him; points and territory are just so precious come cup-time.
For some, this means we should play the ‘Pooper’ (both in the same back row). For me, this would look more like Pocock dominating in the first half, for Hooper to raise the pace of the game at the back end.
It’s not a bad problem to have.
Thanks to FoxSports for the stats
