We’ve looked at openside and blindside so far and they’ve yielded Hooper, Pocock, Fardy and McMahon as our Wallaby back row. Bob Dwyer reckons we’re bereft of world class candidates, but what do the stats tell us about the Wallaby number eight?
As Aussies we like our 8 to be that impact ball carrier who can turn shit ball into good ball, offload and make some big hits in defence. The embodiment of this had to be Toutai Kefu, and as if you needed reminding…
So who can measure up for us in 2015? For perspective we’ve thrown in two of the world’s current eight’s that most agree would walk into the Wallabies, as well as a curveball for good measure….
Numerical analysis kindly provided by ForceFan
Attack
When Toutai Kefu came on our recent RWC Legends podcast, he named Ita Vaea as his choice for Wallaby 8, and from Ita’s running numbers you can start see why. Vaea takes the chocolates in total carry metres, defenders beaten and this season rivalled all time top pie scoring Super rugby forward Scott Higginbotham for tries scored.
Higgers is next in line from an Aussie perspective, his ability to break the line is quite unrivalled by our candidates. All Aussie options are put in the shade by both Read and Vermeulen however, who show the benchmark of a top class ball runner.
If Vaea has an attacking weak point it’s his distribution – the ball ends with him. This might be the nature of his runs and the Brumbies pattern, but it’s in stark difference to Kieran Read who clearly plays a vital linking role for the Crusaders. For offloads, the best of our comparative set is our curveball – Will Skelton.
Defence
Unfortunately I don’t have a ‘bell-ringer’ stat, but in terms of putting the work rate in, Vaea edges ahead. The rest are much of a muchness with big Duane trailing the group (if I had to make a guess who led the bell-ringer league though, he’d be it). Higgers does conspicuously well in terms of completion rate.
He may not be the chief scavenger, but it’s useful if the eight can throw in with the rest of the back row. Of our regular candidates McCalman steps up and Vaea is no slouch – they’re both hard to shift over the ball. Here Higgers falls behind somewhat, but the standout from the crowd is our curveball again, Will Skelton – even dwarfing the pesky Read.
When you pair these stats with the rucks hit numbers, clearly McCalman is highly effective in the defensive breakdowns he hits. In fact, by Forcefans’s numbers he’s early to 94% of his defensive rucks and effective in 99% of them. Higginbotham on the other hand tends to be later and less effective in his breakdown work, which looks to impact his turnover results. For a big man, Will Skelton gets around the park clearly his brute strength makes an impact in his results.
Errors
When looking at the handling errors you need to factor in the amount players are touching the ball and what they’re doing with it – for example Schatz has low errors, but also low run stats and almost zero offloads.
Having done that, McCalman looks to own the safest Aussie hands. With the little amount of distribution Vaea does, his error rate is high – perhaps why he keeps it simple? Read, as we all know, is quality – and for a big man offloading in high traffic, Skelton has soft hands.
Penalty wise, Ita also sticks out a little, but then he balances that out with his turnovers, as does McCalman. You can’t say the same for Higgers. For his impact, Skelton stays relatively clean.
The choice
In his article this week, Bob Dwyer urged for some selection risks. From that regard two candidates put themselves forward.
Ita Vaea is making himself a standout in terms of both impact and work rate – you can see what Toutai Kefu is talking about. From the numbers he should be at least training with the Wallabies squad to see what he can offer and learn being just 26.
However there’s a final, important, stat that needs to be reviewed for the Wallabies, and that’s line-out.
Here, Vaea has a zero next to his name sealing off an important option for the Wallabies. Is it because he just wasn’t needed at the Brumbies or is it a skill shortfall? For his perception of flightlessness, our risky curveball Skelton rivals McCalman for takes. With his other stats, should we start to look at him differently, allowing another aerial target in the second row by moving him backwards?
Bringing us back to earth with the more tried and tested, Jake Schatz is clearly a good jumping option, but hasn’t blown the hair back with the rest of his game. This sentence is the first time I’ve mentioned 54 cap Wallaby Cliffy Palu’s name in the whole article. Despite the quiet season, I’ll be surprised if his experience and all round game doesn’t bring him into consideration at least.
The other two experienced campaigners are Higginbotham and McCalman. Higgers’ line out option will probably nail him a squad spot, but his breakdown numbers are still soft for my liking. McCalman is one of those players you can budget on game in game out and should also tie down a spot. These two seem lock-ins to the squad. If there’s just a third spot for an 8 going in a cut down squad, that’s between Vaea and Palu.
Who’s your choice?
